Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings

Post by aftbit » Sat, Jun 20, 2026, 2:37 AM UTC

testaburger wrote: post #73

ggm wrote: post #14

An interesting variant of "privatise the profits, socialise the losses" played wholly in the private sector capital investment space. "When you're rich they let you" is big in this because a functional board of a company about to be vested with a massive debt overhang from a serial offender (X and xAI) would surely have said "could we NOT" about this and the whole model including A and B class voting shares suggests…

Is spaceX absolutely vital for the US national security through Starlink as well as the launch of military satellites? Yes, and as a matter of fact this is also true for NATO allies, Japan, Taiwan, SK, etc in any future conflict for at least the next 5 to 10 years, just as it has been for the past 4 years in Ukraine. In addition to land based infrastructure that can be targeted in any future war -undersea cables are…

Post by aftbit » Sat, Jun 20, 2026, 2:42 AM UTC

jcranmer wrote: post #106

rayiner wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The sky-high valuation of SpaceX is almost entirely related to it's estimated TAM from AI entreprise solutions, not robots and rocketships That’s not how TAM works. The valuation of each business unit isn’t just a simple proportion of its TAM like that. In the SpaceX/xAI merger, which was just a few months ago, the rocket company was valued at $1 trillion and the AI company at $250 billion: https://www.reuters.com/…

SpaceX's S-1 listed its expected TAM and did break it out by segment. $26.5 trillion to AI, $1.6 trillion to connectivity (Starlink), $0.370 trillion to space launch. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

Post by lesuorac » Sat, Jun 20, 2026, 2:42 AM UTC

dehrmann wrote: post #33

Matt Levine's take was essentially that if you're in the index fund game, you want the market. You don't pick and choose what parts of the market you want--that's active management. SPCX mostly isn't an issue because most indices include the float in the weight, so it isn't really even a $1T company.

Post by redox99 » Sat, Jun 20, 2026, 2:46 AM UTC

stackskipton wrote: post #91

redox99 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can keep google and anthropic deals, they're already profitable.

That's huge IF, both of them have 90 day exit clause, and it's not like it's a long-term business. Those deals are doable because xAI failed and SpaceX has a bunch of spare compute lying around they can rent out. However, SpaceX doesn't make the hardware or software so moat is nonexistent. If compute capacity increases or AI demand decreases, Google/Anthropic will likely skip SpaceX and just buy their own hardware in…

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Jun 20, 2026, 2:50 AM UTC

aftbit wrote: post #113

jcranmer wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX's S-1 listed its expected TAM and did break it out by segment. $26.5 trillion to AI, $1.6 trillion to connectivity (Starlink), $0.370 trillion to space launch. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

$26.5 trillion dollars. That's more than $3,000/yr from every single man woman and child on the planet. Another way to put it - more than 10x as much as all of the US spends on food every year. For Grok/xAI. That's bonkers.