Here we go… Let’s see if retail investors are indeed exit liquidity or not
Pretty much is, at this point. Spcx is oversubscribed.
Source
Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
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Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#112so who is buying at the open? anthropic, spacex, openai
i think that we are going to see another leg up but this is gonna be it for a while
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
But then private shareholders are able to extract shareholder value from the subsidiary, so the "nonprofit" component is utterly meaningless here. How is this not illegal? What prevents any nonprofit from doing this to sidestep its filing status and extract profit?
not to be a shill, but isn't it good for the non-profit to own a big piece of a successful company?
I think it depends on context.
If the private subsidiary was doing semi-unrelated stuff to the goals of the non-profit, and using it to fund the non-profit, then your logic could make sense - for example if a cancer research charity owned a profitable business and funnelled the profits up to spend on research, great.
But in OpenAI's case, the claimed goals of the non-profit were essentially "do AI in a way that puts safety above profits". And whether or not one agrees with their previous approach to safety, or even whether safety needs to be cared about, it's undeniable that the for-profit business isn't acting as useful fundraising for the non-profit's goals, it's literally acting in the opposite direction.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#114> We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. Presumably those things were harder as a charity/non-profit.
Capital is going to dry up. All the AI companies are racing to get to market before the dumb money disappears
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
They need to financially engineer a good looking quarter beforehand. Perhaps Larry Ellison can cut them a nice quid pro quo for a few months to make OpenAI look profitable (like the SpaceX/Anthropic deal), although that's probably unlikely given the debt Oracle is taking on to build it's infra.
> like the SpaceX/Anthropic deal I understand the scepticism around Google's deal with SpaceX, given the former holds a stake in the latter. But Anthropic buying SpaceX's compute doesn't have any related-party smell to it. That genuinely looks like SpaceX having cornered some valuable compute.
> That genuinely looks like SpaceX having cornered some valuable compute.
That's nice way to say "invested in AI that turned out to be flop nobody wants to pay for so they are selling spare capacity"
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#116so who is buying at the open? anthropic, spacex, openai i think that we are going to see another leg up but this is gonna be it for a while
From what I understand, SpaceX has been engineered such that all kinds of passive investment funds (pension funds, ETFs) will buy into it at their first rebalancing, and as such it should get a decent amount of volume after open.
Having said that, it’s the company I have least faith in due to the recent acquisition of xAI / Twitter.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#117The cheap money for subsidizing tokens has begun to run out. Not all gone, yet, but it's getting harder to pretend the chatbots are cost-effective to run. Soon, they're going to need to tap a larger pool for money: Everyone's retirement accounts.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#118I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.
yep, same here.
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#119so who is buying at the open? anthropic, spacex, openai i think that we are going to see another leg up but this is gonna be it for a while
From what I understand, SpaceX has been engineered such that all kinds of passive investment funds (pension funds, ETFs) will buy into it at their first rebalancing, and as such it should get a decent amount of volume after open. Having said that, it’s the company I have least faith in due to the recent acquisition of xAI / Twitter.
I heard that the rule changes which would allow SpaceX to be auto bought by those funds has been blocked, previous stock seasoning rules will apply
Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
#120Companies IPOing should be forced to put up their estimated market cap as collateral in cash. Oh what is that? You don't have $1 trillion in cash to put up? Cool, you're not a $1 trillion dollar company then.
In theory the purpose of an IPO is to raise cash to expand a company. If the company already has the cash they don't need to do an IPO.