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The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

montanaskeptic.substack.com

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Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#111

Post by rich_sasha »

ggreer wrote: post #106
rich_sasha wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean. Sure. Value is ultimately what someone will pay for something, and the name of the game is to buy low and sell high. People who bought TSLA made money. The point is, it's completely irrational - like winning lottery 3x in a row. Tesla's PE ratio, depending on how you look at it, something like 200-350. That means that if nothing changes , the expected return of earnings on your investment is 0.3-0.5%. You'll…

Tesla's valuation is high because investors expect them to sell goods & services other than cars, such as autonomous vehicle rides and humanoid robots for domestic & industrial use. Who knows if they'll be able to pull it off, but an analysis that treats Tesla as a car company misses why investors have priced so much growth into the company.

It remains the case even then that they have to create an insane amount of value, not merely to grow but to catch up to their current valuation.

But hey Pokémon cards and meme coins and NFTs don't generate any revenue and yet you can make money buying and selling. Up to a point typically.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#113

Post by itskokeh »

rich_sasha wrote: post #83
itskokeh wrote: post #44

Falcon 9 proved SpaceX can deliver on hard engineering promises. Why isn't that track record factored into the business case here? Is the argument that SpaceX the business fails, or just that the IPO price is disconnected from reality? How much of the index fund manipulation concern applies to any mega-cap IPO, vs. something unique to SpaceX?

> Falcon 9 proved SpaceX can deliver on hard engineering promises. Why isn't that track record factored into the business case here? Toyota, NASA, many people have done it many times. They have also failed many times. Failure happens, even after successes. Starship has come a long way but it can still fail on so many ways. They may simply not progress. The rockets may prove too expensive to reuse, or not reliable. Th…

Thanks. This clarifies a lot

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#114

Post by sschueller »

Gud wrote: post #103
sschueller wrote: post #6

The point-to-point travel with starship is the one that urks me the most. It is completely unrealistic and will never happen. They have Zürich, Switzerland as a destination. There is no place in all of Zürich to facility such a thing, you will blow out every window in the city at each launch. Absolutely ridiculous that anyone would take this serious. Also don't get me started on data centers in space idea... When the…

I live in Zürich and feel uncomfortable about this. There is no way people in Switzerland will vote yes to this.

You don't even need a vote. It's technically not feasible, it is that far fetched from reality.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#115

Post by prolly97 »

Zigurd wrote: post #91
prolly97 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All that. But also he makes products so compelling that people who dislike him drives in them. "Fuck Elon" gotta be an all time top seller among bumper stickers. > few could have anticipated that Tesla and Musk would be unaffected by valid scrutiny and criticism. This almost implies that the scrutiny itself, and not the economic reality, should be the reason of Teslas demise or otherwise lesser financial outcome. Whi…

Tesla isn't the technology, performance, luxury, infotainment, or value leader in EV's any longer. If you think the Germans know what the salute meant, and they stopped buying the cars, you can take the hint and have a lot of excellent choices. There is no future prospect of explosive growth at Tesla any longer. That price to earnings ratio is not less absurd for having lasted this long.

I hear you. And I believe disagreement is good. The markets were right back in 2018 - Tesla did manage to overcome their manufacturing struggles, and they did become profitable (now having retained earnings equal to ~65% of their then market cap).

The markets may well be wrong now. But they weren't back then, and the arguments haven't changed drastically.

Currently I'm sitting in Palo Alto. So I get to see a lot of Waymos and Cybercabs. I struggle to see how Waymo can compete on price if Tesla can keep production prices in the same realm as M3. And making a car is a pretty steep barrier to entry. So that edge may take some time to compete away.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#116

Post by eboy »

prolly97 wrote: post #35

So this guy was pretty active in the TeslaQ community. They believed Tesla to be (extremely) overvalued in 2017-2019 on the grounds that they would never become profitable.. or something. They lost a lot of money shorting Tesla. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/91aha1/montana... Anyways, seems like he's keeping the grudge alive. They were right about a couple of things back then. But majorly wrong in agg…

[dead]

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#117

Post by Zigurd »

prolly97 wrote: post #115
Zigurd wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla isn't the technology, performance, luxury, infotainment, or value leader in EV's any longer. If you think the Germans know what the salute meant, and they stopped buying the cars, you can take the hint and have a lot of excellent choices. There is no future prospect of explosive growth at Tesla any longer. That price to earnings ratio is not less absurd for having lasted this long.

I hear you. And I believe disagreement is good. The markets were right back in 2018 - Tesla did manage to overcome their manufacturing struggles, and they did become profitable (now having retained earnings equal to ~65% of their then market cap). The markets may well be wrong now. But they weren't back then, and the arguments haven't changed drastically. Currently I'm sitting in Palo Alto. So I get to see a lot of W…

You are living in a fantasy world where, for one thing, Tesla overcoming early production problems merits and astronomical P/E ratio. For another thing you think a non-functioning robotaxi service portends some future growth. Sleep in the backseat of an FSD Tesla if you dare.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#118

Post by orwin »

l23k4 wrote: post #82
orwin wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Explain to me how adding weights to the float is undoing a previous manipulation and not manipulating the numbers.

That's the Nasdaq-100 lol who cares? Are you buying it? It is literally just an arbitrary bucket of stocks.

That's just deflection to avoid answering. I wonder if it's a product of cognitive dissonance or if it's voluntary.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#119

Post by thisisit »

prolly97 wrote: post #35

So this guy was pretty active in the TeslaQ community. They believed Tesla to be (extremely) overvalued in 2017-2019 on the grounds that they would never become profitable.. or something. They lost a lot of money shorting Tesla. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/91aha1/montana... Anyways, seems like he's keeping the grudge alive. They were right about a couple of things back then. But majorly wrong in agg…

Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent by Keynes says everything about what happened here.

But to say there’s a “grudge” seems to ignore another market fact “past results are not indicative of future results”. He might be right this time around for all you know. Is there anything you disagree apart from saying he is a Musk hater? Otherwise this comment is just unhelpful.

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