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Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

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Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#111

Post by graemep »

postflopclarity wrote: post #80
Eji1700 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which the average person doesn’t know because this is the 50th headline they’ve read on how we’re screwed today that hasn’t happened. They’ve blown their attention budget for the layman and aren’t getting it back unless someone serious guides their attention.

> the 50th headline they’ve read on how we’re screwed today that hasn’t happened the things are happening though. e.g. if you read a headline in the 70s that said something like "ski seasons will shorten by an average of 1 day per year, leading to only 5 inches of snow water equivalent in Colorado resorts by 2026, and eliminating the economic viability of skiing in the northeast by 2060" that would have been complete…

The problem is that those were not the headlines. There were headlines in the 80s saying AMOC would collapse by now.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#113

Post by bastawhiz »

postflopclarity wrote: post #80
Eji1700 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which the average person doesn’t know because this is the 50th headline they’ve read on how we’re screwed today that hasn’t happened. They’ve blown their attention budget for the layman and aren’t getting it back unless someone serious guides their attention.

> the 50th headline they’ve read on how we’re screwed today that hasn’t happened the things are happening though. e.g. if you read a headline in the 70s that said something like "ski seasons will shorten by an average of 1 day per year, leading to only 5 inches of snow water equivalent in Colorado resorts by 2026, and eliminating the economic viability of skiing in the northeast by 2060" that would have been complete…

> the things are happening though.

That's what the headlines said the last 49 times. Why should the average person care now? What are they supposed to do?

Al Gore got on a scissor lift and showed the hockey stick graph. Millions of people saw it. Then the data was bad. Then the average person didn't see anything happen that they could point to and be like "That's what Al Gore warned us about". What you're asking for already happened, over and over. It's useless now.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#114

Post by ericjmorey »

SoftTalker wrote: post #73
ck2 wrote: post #63

two absolute facts: 1. even if there was something humans could do about it, we won't, ever 2. insurance rates are the only "control". they will skyrocket and thereby the only change to select behavior human society allows "privatize the profits, socialize the costs" so that scales from the smallest to the largest models

Pretty much agree. Nature will fix the climate, after it eliminates (a large number of) the humans that are causing the problem. That's really the only way.

The defeatist mindsets expressed in these comments seem more like a way to shed any sort of personal accountability for participating in a solution that doesn't kill billions of people than a reflection of reality.

There are many solutions.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#115

Post by array_key_first »

SoftTalker wrote: post #96
wongarsu wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking back at the amount of snowfall I saw as a kid and the amount of snowfall I see now in my 30s, or at the number of hot summer days ... I find it hard to claim that climate is not changing over a lifetime. 20 years isn't even a lifetime, that's like 1/4th of a lifetime Maybe climate is more stable wherever you live

There's a problem with memories. You can have a snowy week and remember it as the entire winter, if it affected you in particularly memorable ways. Kids usually get out of school and play building snowmen and having snowball fights. When I was a kid in the midwest USA, 100 degrees in the summer happened every once in a while. Still does. July and August were always hot. Still are. As a kid the heat didn't bother me s…

But we have undeniable evidence that the number of record highs to record lows has been increasing dramatically over the past few decades. It's just measurement, there's no magic behind it.

Summers are actually hotter and winters are actually warmer on average, that's real.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#116

Post by spwa4 »

jmward01 wrote: post #62
causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

So many of those 'could maybe happen' are, in fact, happening right now. The researcher is also quoted as saying 'more likely than not' which is pretty big when it comes to something like the AMOC shutting down. This really is catastrophic and really should be causing governments to take immediate, massive, steps to avert it including steps to sanction countries that are causing it.

The big consequence here is for the EU. And the only way to deal with this is for the EU to force US, India and China to seriously reduce energy use, and with that, their economy.

This is not going to happen. The EU can't even convince itself to stop buying from China.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#117

Post by bastawhiz »

stouset wrote: post #38
causal wrote: post #23

I think climate change is a compelling crisis but I find these types of “could maybe happen according to some models” type of catastrophic scenarios a little frustrating because they soak up a lot of attention with scary headlines, reinforcing hopelessness in those who care while providing ammunition to skeptics when the catastrophe doesn’t materialize. It’s also easy to question methodology for anyone who has done a…

What, exactly, do you expect scientists researching these things to do? Bury their findings?

The scientists aren't journalists. Convince a politician to start planning for national security considerations. Tell them how it'll affect supply chains. Frame it in a way that literally anyone who has a vested interest in doing something would care about.

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#118

Post by rob_c »

nickserv wrote: post #51
rob_c wrote: post #3

Wait I've seen this... Day before the day after tomorrow right?

Yes the movie was vaguely inspired by the science. The AMOC has been studied for a long time, including the effects of its possible weakening. Where the movie is firmly in fantasy land of course is in the timeline, where the effects are nearly instant rather than likely over decades in reality.

> Yes the movie was vaguely inspired by the science.

I.. _sigh_, my comment was satire I'm well aware of the "science", the modelling, the failures of large amounts of models, the ones that work, the...

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#119

Post by [deleted] »

SoftTalker wrote: post #96
wongarsu wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking back at the amount of snowfall I saw as a kid and the amount of snowfall I see now in my 30s, or at the number of hot summer days ... I find it hard to claim that climate is not changing over a lifetime. 20 years isn't even a lifetime, that's like 1/4th of a lifetime Maybe climate is more stable wherever you live

There's a problem with memories. You can have a snowy week and remember it as the entire winter, if it affected you in particularly memorable ways. Kids usually get out of school and play building snowmen and having snowball fights. When I was a kid in the midwest USA, 100 degrees in the summer happened every once in a while. Still does. July and August were always hot. Still are. As a kid the heat didn't bother me s…

[deleted]

Re: Scientists warn Atlantic current at risk of shutting down

#120

Post by 13415 »

9rx wrote: post #82
embedding-shape wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So they should be more like "Atlantic currents might shut down, we'll see what happens and if it'll be good or bad" when they already can tell the effects will be pretty bad? Wouldn't that be basically burying the lede?

You'd have to ask the one who raised concern with this in the first place. What is apparent, though, is that "good or bad" is contrary to science. Science seeks to understand what is, not how you might feel about it. It is interesting that things went there.

So medicine is not a science because it's concerned with what's "good" and what's "bad" for someone's health? I find this kind of argument principally flawed.

Many sciences are concerned with the consequences of human actions and it's hard if not impossible to describe these in meaningful ways without applying some criteria for what outcomes are good (desirable, positively evaluated) and what outcomes are bad (not desirable, negatively evaluated).

Besides, there is a whole area of science that maybe is more like engineering but is clearly worthwhile, too, even if it's not strictly a natural science only. For example, urban planning might not be a science in the strict sense but it's clearly important and involves scientific studies.

If policy makers can't get from climate scientist's an evaluation of the potential consequences of climate changes, then who else would produce these for them? Should they just make it up on the fly?

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