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Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

paulkrugman.substack.com

111–120 of 367 posts

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#111
post #89
post #18

Can you watch what happens on a market just before the press conference and do the same?

By the time you’ve reacted, it’s already too late.

This, as a generality. There are plenty of multi-billion-dollar Wall Street firms doing algorithmic trading. Your prospects for being smarter or faster than them are very poor.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#113
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war must continue in order to bring us to the status quo that was in place before we started the war. I hope that everyone responsible for this is enjoying every cent of what they get to pay at the pumps.

[flagged]

Maybe if Iran had a nuke Israel would cut back on sexual torture of detainees and indiscriminate bombing of vast swaths of densely populated land. And maybe the US would think twice about spending $10 trillion fighting pointless wars in the region. I’m in favor of that scenario.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#114
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war must continue in order to bring us to the status quo that was in place before we started the war. I hope that everyone responsible for this is enjoying every cent of what they get to pay at the pumps.

[flagged]

And what did the attack accomplish? It did degrade the Iranian military somewhat. It killed the Iranian leadership, but odds are the replacements are simply even more radical and opposed to the US.

The nuclear material is probably still buried in the facilities attacked in the earlier strikes (not the war this year). That is a delay on any potential nuclear weapons development, but not more than that.

It showed Iran and the world just how much damage they can cause with their control over the strait. And it removed any factor that previously led Iran towards not blocking the strait even when attacked. In the end the odds are that this whole mess will cause death and suffering, damage the world economy and we'll likely end up with an even more dangerous Iran in the future.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#116
post #43

The worst part is the sharp changes in the price being traded aren't achieved by magic but rather with guns & actual human suffering

Someone has taken the Rothschild motto too literally: “Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” — Baron Nathan Rothschild https://medium.com/@douglasp.schwartz/buy-when-theres-blood-...

That’s not what that quote means. It means even if your portfolio is down you should keep buying.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#117
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war must continue in order to bring us to the status quo that was in place before we started the war. I hope that everyone responsible for this is enjoying every cent of what they get to pay at the pumps.

[flagged]

That’s not what US intelligence says.

The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.

https://www.factcheck.org/2025/06/trump-gabbard-comments-on-...

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#118
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone has taken the Rothschild motto too literally: “Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” — Baron Nathan Rothschild https://medium.com/@douglasp.schwartz/buy-when-theres-blood-...

That’s not what that quote means. It means even if your portfolio is down you should keep buying.

That's what they meant by "too literally."

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#119

The warring parties greatly influence the price of oil futures but they are not the only influences, and there are other markets The losses of market participants and the gains from insiders is difficult for me to take seriously as a problem in commodities market I read all of the cases in the article

The article displays a laughably out of date view of futures markets, too There are people and institutions, such as oil producers, who will need to sell oil at a future date. They want to lock in the price today on those future sales. There are also people and institutions, such as airlines, who have a future need for oil and would like to lock in the price today. Airlines haven’t hedged fuel in a long time and gene…

Airlines can't raise the prices of tickets sold months ago. There is still financial reason to hedge.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#120
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably people who voted for Trump are somewhat responsible, and include a lot of car drivers. (Not to imply that many Democrat politicians aren't also owned by AIPAC and big business.)

I didn’t vote for Trump but I don’t blame the voters. I don’t think many people foresaw him doing this on either side of the political aisle. Other stuff we disapprove of, yes. But not this. I say that because he had famously resisted to enter extended conflict in his first term. Maybe he wanted to but now has the chance since he’s in his final years. (At least, I hope it’s his final years.) But I didn’t hear anyone…

It was obvious that Trump is unstable and has extreme and volatile views on foreign policy. So yes, I think it is entirely fair to blame anyone that voted for Trump in the last election.
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