I’d prefer to live in a world in which we don’t need this
Apocalypse Early Warning System
111–120 of 137 posts
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#112Fun idea of a metric, but if I'm reading this correctly, we get roughly one apocalypse warning per year? > Level 5 is calibrated so only the highest daily peak in the trailing year should exceed it.
I would like to see the backtest on this tool- what were the most recent dates that were Level 5, 4, 3 and 2?
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#113> we suspect that many people who have access to private jets will immediately take to the skies and escape city centers. I would bet on the exact opposite. Unless you're within a few hundred meters of ground zero you're better off seeking shelter than trying to run, and if you are running you only want to go those few hundred meters and then take shelter. The local airport where your plane presumably is would be far…
Well connected people probably have access to the kind of insider information that would allow them to escape the hot zone with hours, even days of advance.
And they have the money to pay for the people who can interpret this information and assess the risks.
Most of the time, they use this information to do some nice trades. But should things start to get very seriously moving towards a Nuclear Confrontation, they would probably know it way before us.
Nowadays, the US or Israel are the most probable countries to initiate a first strike, but this wouldn't happen before a large preparation window where the information would have time enough to reach the top of our rulling class.
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#114Pinging weather stations should be a good indicator. If you notice a bunch of contiguous ones no longer responding, or sending back huge temperature readings, there's a good chance a nuclear apocalypse is imminent. (Just ignore the few statistical outliers: https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/23/europe/france-weather-sensor-... )
> there's a good chance a nuclear apocalypse is imminent. Or that an excavator took out some fiber.
Or the Polymarket hairdryer mafia is out in force
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#115By definition it's a bit of a lagging indicator, unless we assume that all these folks have better access to inside information than the rest of us. Given that I was well aware of, for example, the likelihood of a Covid pandemic well before a bunch of rich people flew to New Zealand, it seems likely that CNN is gonna be a better gauge.
Just because they flew to New Zeland at time D, it doesn't mean they were not aware of the situation in time D - x.
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#116Do you think that rich people are on some sort of private 'end of the world' mailing list?
Well, there's a fucking giant very busy revolving door between the federal government and the private sector. Those people have connections, but they are also able interpret open source intelligence signals and their implications in a way that most of us can't, because we don't know the internal machinery.
In fact, most big banks and other big companies have retired defense and intelligence people explicitly working on risk assessment.
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#117By definition it's a bit of a lagging indicator, unless we assume that all these folks have better access to inside information than the rest of us. Given that I was well aware of, for example, the likelihood of a Covid pandemic well before a bunch of rich people flew to New Zealand, it seems likely that CNN is gonna be a better gauge.
Just because they flew to New Zeland at time D, it doesn't mean they were not aware of the situation in time D - x.
Correct. But this indicator is "when do the vast majority of wealthy people actually take to the air?" Which means it's 'belief' lagged by however long it takes them to get in the air. And the fact is, most wealthy people dont actually have particularly good inside information. Even if a small percent do, this indicator won't see it.
We will all know from the news that something really bad is about to happen before this indicator goes high. Polymarket is a way better indicator.
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#118Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#119> we suspect that many people who have access to private jets will immediately take to the skies and escape city centers. I would bet on the exact opposite. Unless you're within a few hundred meters of ground zero you're better off seeking shelter than trying to run, and if you are running you only want to go those few hundred meters and then take shelter. The local airport where your plane presumably is would be far…
I think this is meant to detect insider knowledge of imminent risk of a nuclear attack. It's not meant to detect if nukes are already inbound.
Unless the prez misses the nurse button and hits nuke
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#120I made something like this in like 2007 called Apocalypse Feed. It took in a few factors and aggregated them into a 0-to-100 number that updated and published over RSS. First it pinged debian mirrors around the world and made a map based on mirror city's lat/long: green for online, red for offline. If there was a cluster of red, that part of the world was considered gone. Then it checked space weather data and neares…
> The current worst headline is:
> Self-Described Vampire Pleads Guilty to Threatening Judge
Hahaha :)
Miss such innocent apocalyptic indicators. Well, reading the linked archived article, maybe not that innocent. Just not as relevant.