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For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

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Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not in the same ballpark. Chernobyl nearly poisoned the entire continent’s water supply. Nuclear waste is far far worse than excess water.

How would Chernobly poison all of Europe's (or you mean Asia's?) drinking water while all of our nuclear testing hasn't?

He probably meant Chernobyl accident was close to polluting Dnieper river downstream. Not quite the source of water for all of Europe.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#112

Extending the life of existing power infra is low-hanging fruit for more power short term, but the economics of renewables are just unstoppable. Article states 93% of new generation capacity was renewable which is good, but I can sense that nimbyism is growing towards wind and solar. Not to mention the animus towards China who has wisely cornered manufacturing of these. The US has shot itself in the foot because of i…

I still don't understand the economics when it comes to power all the time, not some of the time, and I rarely see that being mentioned in this sort of gung-ho post. I want to feel how you feel - can you help with the specifics there?

> I still don't understand the economics when it comes to power all the time, not some of the time

The way a traditional grid works is that you have baseload plants (nuclear, coal) that generate all the time and peaker plants (hydro, natural gas) that make up the difference between the baseload generation and the current demand by varying the amount they generate to match demand in real time.

The higher demand periods when you're not using electricity to heat buildings are typically daytime and early evening. Solar generates power during daytime. That makes "use solar instead of natural gas during daytime" an easy win. You can also do things like "charge electric vehicles mostly during daytime" and use solar again. Then you're still using natural gas in the early evening but you save a lot of fuel (and CO2) by not having to use them during the day. Meanwhile the gas plants are still there to use in the evening and then you can use them on a day when it's cloudy.

That's still where we are in most places. There isn't enough solar in the grid yet to completely replace natural gas during most of the solar generation window, and we could add even more by electrifying transportation, so we can still add a lot more solar before we have to really deal with intermittency at all.

Optimists would then like to extrapolate the economics of doing that to doing 100% of generation from renewables, which would require actually dealing with it.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that logic solar power should also be banned, due to the amount of coal required per panel (0) both for reduction and Czochralski process. And remember, solar panel factories don't run on solar power. (0) https://co2coalition.org/2024/05/21/coals-importance-for-sol...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CO2_Coalition

How does that change the fact that solar panels cannot be manufactured without high quality coal? (0) And doesn't that undermine the "cement for nuclear power" argument?

(0) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335083312_Why_do_we...

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#114
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>incentivizing universities to hire the cheapest available grad student talent (inevitably from China) That isn't how that works. Domestic students are just as cheap.

Domestic students sometimes get a local/in-state discount so they actually cost more since they aren't paying as much tuition upfront. GP also alluded to international students coming to the US to learn and then taking their big brains back home instead of starting a company here. This was already an issue before Trump II but has been exacerbated by ICE's gestapo tactics along with all of the other roadblocks that Tr…

>GP also alluded to international students coming to the US to learn and then taking their big brains back home instead of starting a company here.

I'm not sure this is such a big issue. If the research environment is poor in their home country, the VC environment is probably even worse. Also consider every foreign professor teaching in the US right now is essentially a modern Operation Paperclip victory against their homeland. And there are a lot of them. Plus the student is still contributing to American research efforts as a grad student here. It isn't all unilateral effort unilateral benefit. They are advancing their PIs grant effort. They are probably teaching and mentoring.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wars in Ukraine and irán have also highlighted what a horrendous insecurity nuclear power plants are. A direct missile attack on one could be catastrophic. The idea that such will never happen is as silly as the idea that there will never be an accident or a tsunami. But passive safety won't stop a missile.

A missile hitting a coal power plant will also be pretty bad, and there's not a giant shield around it.

> A missile hitting a coal power plant will also be pretty bad, and there's not a giant shield around it.

Probably not even the same order of magnitude. A blown-up nuclear reactor would be WAY worse in short- and long-term effects (and cleanup costs) than a blown-up coal power plant producing comparable MW.

(See: Fukushima and Chernobyl.)

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#116
post #103
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Base load is marketing term for electricity supply which cannot economically follow the demand curve and is only affordable if you can use a constant supply of it. It's not a feature, it's a bug. What you want is dispatchable power. The term vaguely makes sense if there are sources of electricity that output a constant supply that are cheaper than the dispatchable sources of power. Like nuclear was supposed to be (bu…

Base load is a feature, not a bug. Companies planning new industrial facilities need long-term guarantees of reliable 24×7 power with predictable rates. Otherwise they'll build elsewhere. Dispatchable power doesn't help them.

industry needs perdictable cheap power. They only care about base load because it is traditionally cheap enough to schedule your energy intensive work around. Wind and solar are much cheaper and we are often good enough at predicting it for industry.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#117
post #104
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Base load is a feature, not a bug. Companies planning new industrial facilities need long-term guarantees of reliable 24×7 power with predictable rates. Otherwise they'll build elsewhere. Dispatchable power doesn't help them.

Base load power cannot provide predictable rates because it provides a fixed amount of power that the market then bids on. If there's too much demand rates go up arbitrarily high. If there's too little rates go to zero. Dispatchable power is the only sort of power that provides 24x7 power with predictable rates. If there's more demand, you produce more power (at the same cost). If there's less, you produce less so yo…

Base load provides predictable cheap power at night. Which is why heavy industry runs third shift only (only rare industy is this way), and shuts down for maintenance in december (christman lights). Now that wind is cheap they are changing shifts because nobody wants to work third shift if they don't have to.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#118
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wars in Ukraine and irán have also highlighted what a horrendous insecurity nuclear power plants are. A direct missile attack on one could be catastrophic. The idea that such will never happen is as silly as the idea that there will never be an accident or a tsunami. But passive safety won't stop a missile.

> what a horrendous insecurity nuclear power plants are. A direct missile attack on one could be catastrophic The same holds for hydro. Even worse, there would be no time for evacuation. Yet nobody is considering banning dams.

"In August 1975, the Banqiao Dam and 61 others throughout Henan, China, collapsed following the landfall of Typhoon Nina. The dam collapse created the third-deadliest flood in history which affected 12,000 km2 (3 million acres) with a total population of 10.15 million, including around 30 cities and counties, with estimates of the death toll ranging from 26,000 to 240,000."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure

"After the disaster, the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese government remained silent to the public, while no media were allowed to make reports."

"The official documents of this disaster were considered a state secret until 2005 when they were declassified."

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#119
post #94
post #71

I don't think this article did the math right. In the linked source from the article ( https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent... ), in 03/2026 combined generation from hydro (26 TWh), wind (53), solar (27.7), bioenergy (3.82), and other renewables (1.51) is 112.03 TWh, vs 120 TWh for natural gas. It's still an impressive number but it is still slightly less than natural gas.

I think you misread the solar number. The link says 37.6TWh solar with the remaining numbers matching what you wrote. That gives a total of 120.42TWh.

You are right, I read 37 as 27. I will update my parent comment.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#120
post #71

I don't think this article did the math right. In the linked source from the article ( https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent... ), in 03/2026 combined generation from hydro (26 TWh), wind (53), solar (27.7), bioenergy (3.82), and other renewables (1.51) is 112.03 TWh, vs 120 TWh for natural gas. It's still an impressive number but it is still slightly less than natural gas.

UPDATE: Solar was 37.6, not 27.7. I'm not quite sure where I got the incorrect number from. The corrected total is 121.93, which is indeed greater than the 120 for natural gas. I apologize for the error but I can't edit my original comment anymore so I'll just post the correction here. Thanks to mekdoonggi and 0xdde for correcting my mistake.
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