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The looming college-enrollment death spiral

theatlantic.com

111–120 of 174 posts

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#111

I think college's value proposition and entire model has been eroded. Major school's CS grads are finding jobs upon graduation at an 11% rate (I don't have the primary source on this, but it is published by a site I read that never fudges these kinds of things, going back many years). AI probably has a lot to do with that, but it's exposing something more fundamental. CS wasn't supposed to be a programming boot camp…

> Maybe college never should have been for everyone? This is my sentiment. School counselors pushed everyone to colleges, but actively dissed trade schools. Forcing students to take classes in subjects they absolutely do not care about is a terrible idea for a secondary education track. If someone really just wants to learn a trade and have a nice life, there is nothing wrong with that. Did CS course really just beco…

In 2024, 42.8% of the population ages 25 to 39, 41.5% ages 40 to 54, and 34.2% age 55 and older held a bachelor’s degree or higher.

[1]: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/educatio...

That does not seem like everyone is going to college.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yeah, trades suck ass. There are alot of dudes in cushy well paid office gigs extolling the virtues of trade work. It wasn’t some awful conspiracy, physical trade jobs are hard work and with no pensions or benefit protection, there’s a lot of guys struggling when their bodies are broken at 40. In the 80s, most urban trades were unionized with benefit funds etc. Not the case in 2026.

And a bunch of tech peeps are overweight physically out of shape with other health effects as bad as what you're saying about trades. Humans get old. I know plenty of trades people that do hard work and think cushy office gigs are hell on earth and that type of work sucks ass. Just because it's not your preferred career doesn't mean you should denigrate those that do. Besides, if there were no trades, you'd have no p…

Im not denigrating anyone. I worked dairy farms from age 7 to 23.

It’s a brutal lifestyle and I’ve seen my share of hardworking, broken 50 year olds trying to make it mostly on the lesser paying job their wife is left with because raising kids with a dad who’s out the door at 5am and home at 7pm is brutal.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#113
From my youth, I was infected with the desire to graduate college at all costs. I was adopted, and I was told that both of my birth-parents were college graduates (I later validated this as truth!) My adoptive parents were also both college graduates, though my mother chose against a career or employment in favor of motherhood, and active volunteering in church and civic spheres.

My sister and I were both groomed to go to college. We attended the standard college prep high schools. The choices were laid before us. Mom told me definitely not to attend UC Berkeley (because of the hippies and anti-war protests.) So, I chose UCSD and my parents basically handled all the paperwork; I sat down to write an essay, and I was totally in.

However, mental illness ruled my life and I dropped out of classes. An excuse by my therapist got me restarted but not for very long before the second dropout. I tried community college for a semester and earned one more good grade (in C programming). I started work, foolishly believing that would go better than college! My life fell apart around me and college remained unfinished for decades.

Finally by 2017 I was stable enough to consider college again. Of course I should have understood that my career was not a thing, and at that point, college was the frivolous pipe-dream of an aging guy unable to really support himself. Nonetheless, I did the FAFSA, and Uncle Sam paid for the rest of my college bills.

I again dropped out, for reasons of being less-than-stable, but I had managed to earn 3 CompTIA certifications and I also landed a very nice job, which I held for over 4 years. None of those would've been possible without the drive to finish college.

Ultimately, the community college found a way to "graduate me" and award me a certificate of completion (instead of the Associate's in Applied Science which I was pursuing.) My "graduation ceremony" occurred in the US Postal Service station. Receiving that certificate was 100% a surprise, but a Pyrrhic victory.

At this point, I achieved my "bucket list" of graduating college, but I have 0 career prospects, and the certificate means 0 to my former or prospective employers (the certifications also meant nothing to them!)

So what did Uncle Sam really pay for? My personal satisfaction? Just to funnel more taxpayer money to the college system? I am fine with that, I suppose.

But it just goes to show that far more families push their children to attend college, and the expectations are set too high, when many kids growing up really need some vocational skills and real-life street smarts to survive in this world. Tuition prices have been jacked-up absurdly by the proliferation of scholarships and grants. "Diversity" means any view except conservatives or Christians. We are in need of a reckoning, especially for land-grant and "Ivy League" institutions.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#115
post #3

Right in the headline is a word choice I've notice lately that irks me, "democratization". "democratization" doesn't mean more people have access to it. In voting, "more access" means "more governing power" (in principle), but in other things, it does not. If you want to use "democratized" applied to higher-ed, it would mean more people are involved in the decision-making, leadership, or ownership.

>"democratization" doesn't mean more people have access to it It literally does, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/democratic 3: relating, appealing, or available to the broad masses of the people : designed for or liked by most people

I do not know how it worked in the US but in my country until the 1960s university was for the upper class.

No son or daughter of a butcher could ever hope to study law.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#116

I think college's value proposition and entire model has been eroded. Major school's CS grads are finding jobs upon graduation at an 11% rate (I don't have the primary source on this, but it is published by a site I read that never fudges these kinds of things, going back many years). AI probably has a lot to do with that, but it's exposing something more fundamental. CS wasn't supposed to be a programming boot camp…

> Maybe college never should have been for everyone? That was the norm for the vast majority of the existence of higher education.

This is the only real answer.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#117
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So community colleges?

God I wish community college would be subsidized. Some states now cover it for your first degree which is a great start and some also are now starting to subsidize courses for retirees but man I would so love to just go and do like random courses I have no intention of pursuing a career in. European universities are not resorts like in the US and community college keep that small footprint mentality as well. They hav…

Isn't LACC subsidized ($46/unit resident tuition seems pretty good)?

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of things benefit society and don't cost $40k per year per person in subsidies - mainly to the upper middle class.

Strange how I never see this line deployed against the mortgage interest deduction or health care for wealthy retirees, both of which are considerably more expensive. Subsidizing college education, at least, has a reliably positive ROI.

> Strange how I never see this line deployed against the mortgage interest deduction or health care for wealthy retirees

For what it's worth, I see arguments like this all the time. Might just be the corner of the information ecosystem you hang out in.

> Subsidizing college education, at least, has a reliably positive ROI.

Maybe it did in the past, where the greatest marginal gains were. Does it still hold true now? Over a third of the US has a bachelor's degree. Is there a reliably positive ROI to society in taking that third to, say, half?

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that the AVERAGE person should spend 4 years BOTH not working AND incurring massive amounts of (non-defaultable) debt is bananas. College either needs to be 1) way cheaper, 2) mainly for the state-subsidized exceptional and independently wealthy, or 3) move to a different model. We have too many colleges LARPing as Harvard, and too few colleges even attempting to be affordable, practical, or actually deliver…

Higher education improves society as a whole. It should be paid for from general taxation, and available to all. Humanities subjects are just as valid a topic of study as STEM. A couple of generations ago these were uncontroversial statements, now most people think you are crazy for suggesting such a thing. I think you can trace a lot of the problems in the western world back to this.

> Higher education improves society as a whole. It should be paid for from general taxation, and available to all

> A couple of generations ago these were uncontroversial statements

I don't believe those strong assertions you're making were uncontroversial at any time, and are likely objectively less true now than they were in the past.

Re: The looming college-enrollment death spiral

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe college never should have been for everyone? This is my sentiment. School counselors pushed everyone to colleges, but actively dissed trade schools. Forcing students to take classes in subjects they absolutely do not care about is a terrible idea for a secondary education track. If someone really just wants to learn a trade and have a nice life, there is nothing wrong with that. Did CS course really just beco…

In 2024, 42.8% of the population ages 25 to 39, 41.5% ages 40 to 54, and 34.2% age 55 and older held a bachelor’s degree or higher. [1]: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/educatio... That does not seem like everyone is going to college.

"Everyone" is hyperbole, of course. But it's already too high a number.
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