111–120 of 138 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Resources would not be scarce if some people were not hoarding.
hoarding what? you could dekulak all 3500 billionaires, magically transmute their make believe money into hard cash, and that $20 trillion would yield less than $2500 per human. hooray?
Which is a pretty damning indictment of capitalism
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Resources would not be scarce if some people were not hoarding.
hoarding what? you could dekulak all 3500 billionaires, magically transmute their make believe money into hard cash, and that $20 trillion would yield less than $2500 per human. hooray?
1 in 5 children in the USA don’t know where their next meal is coming from [2]
[1] https://https://endhomelessness.org/state-of-homelessness/
[2] https://www.feedingamerica.org/hunger-in-america/child-hunge...
As was put forth in James Suroweicki’s the Wisdom of Crowds, prediction markets provide predictions that tend to be more accurate than any expert, team of experts, etc. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% accurate, but it tends to be more accurate than any other mechanism that we have.
The benefit is not that gamblers have a place to gamble, but that society has a way to gauge the risks of different outcomes and plan accordingly.
Just want to reiterate that prediction markets are beneficial, because they are the most accurate way to provide us with a dynamic mechanism to predict future outcomes from complicated systems. As was put forth in James Suroweicki’s the Wisdom of Crowds, prediction markets provide predictions that tend to be more accurate than any expert, team of experts, etc. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% accurate, but it tends to be…
I'm not sure the increased predictability is worth the increased instability.
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I think GP is saying that, in principle, the UMA token holders can resolve a dispute any way they see fit, even if in practice it's resolved according to the rules. At the end of the day there is someone who has to arbitrate 'truth' for the purposes of payout.
I understand that. What I'm saying is that resolution is only relevant to bettors. It doesn't affect anyone using Polymarket as a passive information source, because nobody is updating their world view based on the resolution of a market, they are updating their world view based on the price action. The price action follows the expected resolution, not the actual resolution. Even if someone were to game resolution to…
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It’s interesting take for sure. However it appears that in real life nowadays most millionaires are self made. I was surprised when I found out about it too. Seems to contradict your thesis.
What do millionaires have to do with anything I said?
Don't you consider millionaires as ones getting ahead? If not then I've got to say - it's absolutely spectacular how rich did capitalism make everyone if millionaires are not even considered rich nowadays!
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Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption. We've made profiting off of corruption substantially easier. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to increase corruption is a moron. Anyone who thinks having more corruption is a good thing is also a moron.
Is there an infinite supply of fools money? There sort of has to be if it's clear that the outcomes are being manipulated by participants in the bets. I guess people do walk into casinos and play games that are legally controlled to have outcomes favoring the casino.
This whole thing isa KGB propaganda tool + method to give bribes and should be banmed by the Western world.
This is becoming the kind of "VC platform for online war investments". You: 1. Plan 2. Bet 3. Invest money upfront 4. Execute 5. Redeem your profits
The first people betting on the outcome they want vs outcome they think will happen.
I think the second obviously make sense. If you had two experts arguing over how a war would go and they where willing to make a bet on it that is good because they are putting “their money where their mouth is” or have “skin in the game”. That’s a good thing.
The first implies manipulation or just a moralistic problem.
The issue I guess is it’s not possible to have one without the other. But I would guess most people are betting because of the second reason and not the first.
This is becoming the kind of "VC platform for online war investments". You: 1. Plan 2. Bet 3. Invest money upfront 4. Execute 5. Redeem your profits
Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption. We've made profiting off of corruption substantially easier. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to increase corruption is a moron. Anyone who thinks having more corruption is a good thing is also a moron.
Just want to reiterate that prediction markets are beneficial, because they are the most accurate way to provide us with a dynamic mechanism to predict future outcomes from complicated systems. As was put forth in James Suroweicki’s the Wisdom of Crowds, prediction markets provide predictions that tend to be more accurate than any expert, team of experts, etc. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% accurate, but it tends to be…