On a tangential note: It seems the whole theater with the DoD is over for now, am I seeing this right?
Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
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Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
#112How is compute shortage to satisfy demand manifested? Obviously they never close sign-ups, so only option is to extended queues? But if demand grows like crazy, then queues should get longer, yet my pro claude plan seems snappy with only occasional retries due to 429.
They have several levers for demand destruction. From Anthropic's POV, I suspect this is least to worst bad
- reducing the surface area of "acceptable use" (e.g., blocking third-party tools OpenClaw)
- tighter usage limits and more subscription tiers
- increasing existing subscription prices
- moving to usage based model completely
- taking away compute from training next gen models (future demand destruction)
Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
"The numbers are certainly audited by their investors." Hahaha. Mate nobody cares about that nor trusts it. Everyone is waiting in anticipation for the S-1 filing.
I do, and I do trust the numbers. I doubt Anthropic is pursuing fraud given that they already don't have enough compute to serve demand. What is the point of lying to the public, investors and risk going to jail?
Money? Bankman-Fried wasn't the only one.
Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
The moat is in: 1. Opus and Sonnet. 2. Compute capacity. Anthropic has much more of it than your average coding startup. 3. The developing ecosystem around Claude Code.
none of the three are even remote moat
How so? Opus and Sonnet are frontier models which cannot easily be replicated. Compute has real physical constraints which require appropriate procurement at this scale. At least those two points seem like pretty strong moats against the majority of companies.
Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
#115There's no limit to the algorithms. People dont understand yet. They can learn the whole universe with a big enough compute cluster. We built a generalizable learning machine
There are limits to algorithms. AI won't solve the halting problem nor will it solve EXPTIME problems in polynomial time.
Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
#116I guess gigawatts is how we roughly measure computing capacity at the datacenter scale? Also saw something similar here: > Costs and pricing are expressed per “token”, but the published data immediately seems to admit that this is a bad choice of unit because it costs a lot more to output a token than input one. It seems to me that the actual marginal quantity being produced and consumed is “processing power”, which…
It's not really a stable measure of compute, but it's a good indication of burn rate as energy cost is something we closely track in economies and it actually dominates a lot of the cost of operating data centers. At least short term. Over time we'll get more tokens per energy unit and less dollars for the hardware needed per energy unit. Tokens currently is too abstract for a lot of people. They have no concept of the relation ship of numbers of tokens per time unit and cost. Long term there's going to be a big shift from op-ex to cap-ex for energy usage as we shift from burning methane and coal to using renewables with storage.
Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
#117Interesting to see Anthropic investing in compute infrastructure. The bottleneck I keep hitting is not raw compute but where that compute lives — EU customers increasingly need guarantees their data stays in-region. More sovereign compute options in Europe would unlock a lot of enterprise AI adoption.
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Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's at least a decent argument to be made that the limiting factor is actually the physical silicon itself (at least at cutting-edge nodes) not really the power. This actually gives AI labs an incentive to run those specific chips somewhat cooler, because high device temperatures and high input voltages (which you need to push frequencies higher) might severely impact a modern chip's reliability over time.
Power is the limiting layer above physical chips. You can add more chips and them at lower clock or add more efficient chips later on, but you can't really change the power of a data center easily.
It will nonetheless be vastly cheaper to build a new datacenter and arrange for powering it than to fab the amount of leading-edge chips and compute systems that are going to ultimately eat that power. So the chips themselves are still the meaningful constraint.
Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
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Re: Anthropic expands partnership with Google and Broadcom for next-gen compute
#120Interesting timing given the quantum computing timeline pressure from this week's cryptography discussions. $30B run-rate and gigawatts of TPU capacity — and meanwhile the most interesting AI work I've seen lately runs on a phone in Termux with no cloud dependency at all. Both things are true simultaneously.