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OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

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Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a government based person who has witnessed multiple states (not in the US) move all operations off GCP because Google doesnt address sovereign risk, local data and hosting privacy requirements,and contracts well at all, where Microsoft and AWS do, I doubt Gemini will have as large a dark horse moment as it could. Copilot Enterprise can span across similar domains, and whilst it is very expensive per user it has t…

Ooh good point. Out of curiosity, have you compared the relative effectiveness of ChatGPT and Claude vs Copilot? Given your existing enterprise contract, does copilot have a monopoly on your AI usage due to its superior compliance?

In the handful of contexts Ive seen across departments and states, no, ive not seen such a comparison. Ive seen state custom implementations of GPT (eg 4o), and Copilot, but not Claude. Claude is likely out there for the same reason Google is - navigating those same localisation / legal issues is complex for government departments.

Copilot has a far easier path to monopoly because it can be pushed down existing Microsoft contracts, MS has put in the work for international jurisdictions in terms of data compliance in existing products and thus can extend upon that with Copilot, and they have a foothold in a good many places. One thing that is interesting with Copilot is that if you set it to Work mode, it can treat your organisational SharePoint sites and OneDrive locations as sources, but do so in a manner that respects what you as a user has access to.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#113
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is investors want discipline. They want to see the CEO communicate a path to profitability. Anthropic has - purely by focusing. OAI in contrast is all over the place and they haven’t shown they’ve learned. Zuckerberg got punished for his metaverse nonsense and investors were correct to be skeptical and reflect that in the stock price. Altman thinks he’s a god and the rules don’t apply to him. More fool him.

> Zuckerberg got punished for his metaverse nonsense and investors were correct to be skeptical and reflect that in the stock price. Did they? It's been a little less than 5 years since Zuckerburg announced the all-in plan on the metaverse. In that 5 year period, Meta's stock price has gone up by 84%... which is middle of the pack for MAGMA, less than Apple (91%) and Google (157%), but above Amazon (24%) and Microsof…

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Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#114
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is investors want discipline. They want to see the CEO communicate a path to profitability. Anthropic has - purely by focusing. OAI in contrast is all over the place and they haven’t shown they’ve learned. Zuckerberg got punished for his metaverse nonsense and investors were correct to be skeptical and reflect that in the stock price. Altman thinks he’s a god and the rules don’t apply to him. More fool him.

How did Zuckerberg get punished? The stock is way up since he started on it.

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Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#115
post #35

Anthropic is not meaningfully better. Their stance is “the good guys have to make money to be in the fight with the bad guys” and so they do all the things their perceived bad guys do. I don’t know how they can do any different, but we just trust them to be good? What is the difference?

Agreed. I don't like Dario. I enjoy his insights but he comes across as "we are the good guys" and "China is the bad guys". Therefore, we must eliminate our enemy in any way possible, including developing god so we can destroy their civilization first.

Just pure propaganda. In my opinion, not so much different than the opinions of the current US whitehouse regime.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#116
post #35

Anthropic is not meaningfully better. Their stance is “the good guys have to make money to be in the fight with the bad guys” and so they do all the things their perceived bad guys do. I don’t know how they can do any different, but we just trust them to be good? What is the difference?

I just appreciate the honesty of Amodei telling us pretty much straight up we’re all fucked because the AIs are taking all the jobs in a couple years or less.

Honesty? Sounds like investor hype to me.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#117
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is investors want discipline. They want to see the CEO communicate a path to profitability. Anthropic has - purely by focusing. OAI in contrast is all over the place and they haven’t shown they’ve learned. Zuckerberg got punished for his metaverse nonsense and investors were correct to be skeptical and reflect that in the stock price. Altman thinks he’s a god and the rules don’t apply to him. More fool him.

> Zuckerberg got punished I think it's hard to grasp just how much money he poured into this folly. $80 Billion. For an idea that any random person on the street could have torn apart. He read Ready Player 1 and decided that was what the future should be. Then he tried to make it. He ruined the Oculus brand and stole all the oxygen from other VR development just to make a lesser copy of our own world, but one where h…

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Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#119
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of that, sure. But realistically, a lot people are just don't want to pay for every frontier model provider out there as they're released. Not just money, but also time trying them out. (Recommend people at least try out their multimodal model.) It doesn't help that Google offers a bunch of confusing plans in multiple places. I ended up just pasting all their AI plan URLs, at least that I could find, into Claude…

I pay for Google Workspace, so pretty much the Gemini Pro included with that suffices my use case. I can't say it will work for everyone, but I do use it for random tasks - all the way from wood working to building complex software projects, and so far I've rarely hit the limit too.

What Gemini Pro comes with Workspace? Is there api allowance? Different than free users?

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#120
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agents increase the velocity of OpenAI and Anthropic; whomever has the best in-house agent moves the quickest.

Any publicly available evidence to back that up? There have been post-exit blog posts from OpenAI employees on HN before and it did sound like the only black magic they use there is that many employees work 16 hrs a day during launch of new features. I know that some current Claude Code devs are doing interviews where they claim that they use Claude Code extensively but they clearly have a conflict of interest while…

Look at the number of features (PRs) being pushed by these companies.
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