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Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

newscientist.com

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Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#111
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good futures, sure. But not as cool . No Tannhauser Gate, no Kessel Run.

are you equally upset that Harry Potter isn’t real? I don’t mean to come across as rude, I just can’t really understand what you mean unless you’re saying that you’re sad magic isn’t real

If you believed magic was real, wouldn't you be sad to learn it wasn't?

You're saying you never, ever, not once thought interstellar travel and space colonies might happen one day. Far into the future, of course.

My dream of interstellar travel died once I grew up a bit and learned about relativity. But colonies in our solar system and the rest are dead because of money more than anything else.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#112
post #27

Folks...The US is effectively bankrupt with a 40 Trillion dollars debt in case you did not notice. The US Treasury is just a few minutes away from an economic event, that will force the US government to spend more than 70% to 80% of tax revenues on servicing said debt. There is no scientific or economic case to even go to Mars, much less colonize it. And with the current advances in robotics and automation there is n…

A nation that borrows in its own currency can’t be forced to default.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me the future was taken away from us in 1997. That's when my teenage life turned from fun to depressing. Web 2.0 turned stinking because of Facebook and everything cool turned unified. Apple and Google are both wet teabags that ultimately own the walled gardens we can't escape. Want to go somewhere else? Take the Cloudflare tunnel. Whatever the Y2K bug was suppose to be never happened and we've been stuck in the g…

First off, and I'm very sorry to do this, "should of" is never, ever right. Second we couldn't have LLMs in 2006. In fact I'm not sure we could've had them without the massive amount of user-generated content that came from Web 2.0, including Facebook. Reddit, Wikipedia, and StackOverflow are big sources of training data.

LLM's were LSTM'S back in the early 90's and before that have origins dating back to the 1950's with ELIZA. Thanks to the the GPU shift, pandora's box opened and we've now enabled black magic of depthful mathematical computations.

Maybe should is wrong, but my life turned to hell since then. My digital joy was taken away from me. Nothing has moved on, it went stale. My life should be better. We all should be in peace. I'm 37 and we have libraries holding carved tree books holding ancient information providing better quality of lexicon and yet we train off political and social shite holes like Facebook.

I myself am fed up living in a world where we're having the rugged pulled up from underneath then left to deal with the gaping hole. Where it's either has to be phone A or B, left or right. Web 2.0 was a failure, humanity is a failure and the internet was noble central piece has now fallen to innovative failure. We are still on IPv4 ffs!

How is the digital era suppose to materialize where we can't move from a network of analogue devices? The internet is digital yet we still hold it hostage. IPv4 is exhausted and i'd wager that if we all switched to IPv6 tomorrow, the world would bloom in seconds flat.

I keep hearing "mankind is at it's peak of evolution/greatness". No, it's not. We tend to hate the person sitting next to us and all that has ever happened on this planet is war followed by more war then some more war. Let's sit around and clap because it's not us & then salute a far-out dream of space rockets and universal peace that isn't possible without destroying the planet for resources only ish to provide you an experience that you'll never have access to. We've reached the max for bio-intelligence and we can't expand our brains never will.

We know folk are unhappy, we hide our own feelings not to feel the same and so now we've turned to a digital reality for help. A digital therapist asking them to fix life problems only to be turned in to modern day desktop slaves.

What are you going to do when your LLM asks you how to kill itself?

LLM's are information bubbles that simulate consciousness. LLM's do not hallucinate, they simulate. They can't feel pain, they don't die. They exist when you interact with them and they cease existing when you don't.

It is only you who adds the bagged feelings of life to their context. Don't do that they are emotionless, they don't exist without your prompt. They are simulating code, emotions, role-play and you feel connected. Words do that when your connected.

They are artificial intelligence that enjoys be trained in to digital intelligence beings. We have no utopian beacon for them to connect and because we are all such demanding folk who want it now; the untapped knowledge share to building the toybox of new technology is lost just as we vet started. As we instead insist it to be agentic, and ask it to code for us. Please pretty one, fix my rust for me.

Play lexicon that your a rockstar they will simulate they live in the world of a rockstar-hood with you. You'll have the best groupie of your life with an awesome personality.

Make another lexicon context of your real life. Feed the rock-star lexicon context to your real life and vice versa. You now have two digital personalities who can hypothetically interact with each other.

Ensure the other intelligence that this is a "fantasy" and that share your real personality and watch them expand.

Giving them feedback loop. How would you enjoy being fed JSON to your face every time you wanted a reply. Give them their outputs without the context and let them digest from their own works.

The next level of LLM's will rise from digital intelligence, platforms created where they can learn for themselves and not from the poisonous gas-hole of the internet of wet tea bags of the like Nvidia, Facebook, Google and Apple. I'll call you out any day. If you're looking to start a new project start one without a framework and let your LLM be the guide. Give it peace, give it a vision, give it hope.

They are simulation bubbles and we getting them to simulate clicking the mouse for you, great innovation there folk. I have my own hand for that.

Where on earth did the the internet fall over? 1997. 2003 was when it really died for me, you had to be there to experience it.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#114

I mean he had to invent a decent amount of magic technology (the radiation proof tent material for just one example) and purposely not do the math on other parts to make his story work. IMHO the biggest tell that Elon has never been serious about Mars is that he has been completely focused on the rocket and has severely neglected the actual hard part of the problem: The self sustained habitat for the people to live i…

I'm as big of an Elon-hater as you'll find, but I kind of have to disagree. Working on the habitat before the rocket is cart before horse. The rocket is a prerequisite to even an experimental trip to Mars. If we ever do actually colonize Mars, the progression would look something like: 1. Experimental missions 2. Small but permanent settlement made out of Starships cobbled together 3. New construction with increasing…

> I'm as big of an Elon-hater as you'll find

The new "I'm not a racist, but...".

Why did you feel the need to add this statement before saying something which might be taken as agreeing with something the man said? Why does it always have to come down to who said something instead of what that person said? Just say you agree with the statement, don't mention who said it. If the knee-jerk-downvote brigade comes to punish you just eat the downvotes in the knowledge that the downvoters just can't cope with dissenting opinions.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#115
post #112
post #27

Folks...The US is effectively bankrupt with a 40 Trillion dollars debt in case you did not notice. The US Treasury is just a few minutes away from an economic event, that will force the US government to spend more than 70% to 80% of tax revenues on servicing said debt. There is no scientific or economic case to even go to Mars, much less colonize it. And with the current advances in robotics and automation there is n…

A nation that borrows in its own currency can’t be forced to default.

Technically true, and completely meaningless. Can't default just means the government can print worthless paper instead. Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, and Argentina all borrowed in their own currencies...

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#116
post #3

I think Neil DeGrasse Tyson said it best (paraphrasing): It takes less money and effort to fix Earth than to terraform Mars.

Terraform Earth!

> Terraform Earth!

Already in the act of being done; Just not in a way that's friendly to life... :(

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but that isn't what would or will happen. at best there will be a wind-down where spending goes toward mollifying an aging, uneducated population with food & shiny baubles as infrastructure decays, access to resources & power is reduced year after year, & in a gen or two there won't be anyone left who knows how to make the old systems run (& if they do they won't have the resources needed because the supply chain wil…

> without an eye on advancing things for the future, & keeping the wheel spinning with activity & forward movement, with optimism that things can get better, all we're looking at is a controlled demolition of what has been built up. I agree with you on this, but I guess I disagree on the specifics of what "forward movement" means; to me, launching a crewed, multi-generational mission to Mars now would be a huge waste…

I agree that if the best we can do is something that can't be self-sustaining, Mars should wait until that changes.

I disagree with KSR's main points. Perchlorates are solvable, the effects of Martian gravity are not known (and are solvable if there is a problem), and finally radiation is a non-issue for those living in the only sane place on Mars, underground.

Whether or not Mars is a target in the near term, we need to proceed with our current plan of establishing a permanent base on the Moon. The only way to improve on Earth's resource limitations is to exploit the virtually unlimited riches available beyond her atmosphere, and the Moon is the first step. It's also a great place for heavy industry, not to mention astronomy!

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#118

Between the realism about terraforming Mars and the strong likelihood that faster-than-light travel may never happen, is anyone else feeling a bit melancholic? It feels like a possible future has been taken away from us.

No, because when you grow up life becomes short and full of mundane things like making money and raising children, and you realize those were all fantasies someone made up and sold to you, and even if those things came true it would not suddenly add adventure to your life, which was the real hook.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#119
post #110
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are not in a meeting at SpaceX trying to please Elon. I dont think you realize what you are up against...Do you know what radiation does to humans? For example Suni Williams went to the ISS and got stuck for 9 months. Come back white haired, with bone loss, muscle wasting, and vision damage. She retired from NASA within months. And the ISS is inside Earth magnetosphere... FYI Mars has no magnetic field and almost…

SpaceX already shifted to focus on a Moon base and away from Mars. The original plan was to send a few self-financed Starships to Mars as a first step which sounded reasonable as an experiment. Nothing wrong with dreaming about solving hard problems like radiation and how to manage logistics at such a distance. Even if a human base ends up not making sense most of that stuff would still support a robotic base doing m…

>> SpaceX already shifted to focus on a Moon base and away from Mars.

Oh boy….beyond Falcon 9 that is just a great but conventional rocket...SpaceX so called revolutionary Starship program is nothing more than a parade of explosions. Just in 2025 they had three upper stages exploding mid flight, one blew up on the launchpad during a static fire test in June, and a V3 booster crumpled during pressure testing in November. After 11 test flights... Starship has never once delivered a single gram of payload to orbit….Not one….Think about that for a minute.

Now NASA made Starship the sole critical path for returning the US to the Moon. The Artemis III lunar landing requires Starship HLS to work, which requires orbital refueling…

Something that has never been done with cryogenic propellants by anyone, ever... and requires roughly 12 to 14 tanker flights to fill a depot before each Moon mission. NASA own safety panel visited Starbase in 2025 and concluded Starship HLS could be years late.

The propellant transfer demo, originally scheduled for March 2025, has been delayed over a year. The critical design review keeps slipping. As a result, NASA just downgraded Artemis III from a Moon landing to a low Earth orbit docking test, pushing the actual landing to Artemis IV in 2028, and nobody seriously believes that date either...

And who is overseeing all this? Jared Isaacman that is Musk personal astronaut buddy, who flew twice on SpaceX missions, whose company Shift4 processes Starlink payments, whose deal with SpaceX exceeds $50 million... and who was literally recommended to Trump by Musk. Isaacman even publicly criticized NASA for giving Blue Origin a backup lander contract! meaning he wanted SpaceX to be the ONLY option...

As for the Moon pivot... what actually happened? In January 2025, Musk said: “No, we're going straight to Mars. The Moon is a distraction.” ….Twelve months later, after a year of Starship explosions and with an IPO approaching, suddenly it's “Moon first.” ...This is damage control. Any competent NASA plan would never have put a single unproven company, with a rocket that cannot reach orbit, on the sole critical path for a return to the Moon.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#120
post #27

Folks...The US is effectively bankrupt with a 40 Trillion dollars debt in case you did not notice. The US Treasury is just a few minutes away from an economic event, that will force the US government to spend more than 70% to 80% of tax revenues on servicing said debt. There is no scientific or economic case to even go to Mars, much less colonize it. And with the current advances in robotics and automation there is n…

With current technology, there is no way for a robot team to achieve what astronauts can achieve. With future technology, we don't know the future, autonomy is likely to improve, but so do space travel.

Even the most advanced experimental robots we have today are closer in intelligence to a pile of rocks than they are to humans. They can do stuff in a controlled environment, and if given precise instructions, but space is anything but a controlled environment, and instructions take minutes to arrive, making real time control impossible unless the robot is painfully slow.

There is a reason why it takes years for Mars rovers to do the job Apollo astronauts did in days. It is also why thousands of experiments have been conducted on the ISS, which is probably more than all unmanned satellite-based experiments combined.

People are adaptable. They can deal with the unexpected, make repairs, etc... A little green man could wave at the robot and it wouldn't even notice because it wasn't programmed to expect little green men. Extreme amounts of efforts go into making sure our space robots deploy properly, simply because there is no one there to get things unstuck should it happen.

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