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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#111

Post by mentalgear »

iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #96
culi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

Exactly: The 0.01% Elite bleeding out the planet and their biggest worries are: 1. How do I keep my doomsday bunker servants in line? 2. Or is a ticket to Mars the better option?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#112

Post by _heimdall »

jeffbee wrote: post #74
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

Your comment is broadly misleading. In fact, I would say that "shadow stats" guys like you have enabled the destruction of the system by creating the space to cast doubt on the valid methods used by BLS. BLS unemployment metrics have a valid basis and where they differ from Eurostat those differences are minor and with rational basis (such as 16 vs. 15 year old starting age).

It is tough, though, for me to fully buy labor statistics when it has become the norm recently for them to be revised down. This spans back into Biden's term as well so it isn't one party either.

With a valid measure I would expect a roughly even distribution over time between underestimates and overestimates. For a valid measure worth considering I'd also expect the stat to be released later when revisions are less likely because more actual data has been collected

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#113

Post by SoftTalker »

kittikitti wrote: post #77

People in Florida, when I tell them about my background working with data, often scoff and claim that the data can be changed to spread lies. They have a government who arrested a data scientist when she published information about Coronavirus. This is prevalent across all of America, especially after DOGE, who encourage fraud so the data supports their political interests. I think the reliability problem is very bad…

> It's not just that the US government is encouraging fraud, it's also that the average American hates AI and data science.

When all they see is it being used to push narratives, they'd rather not have it at all.

Also, "There Are Three Kinds of Lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics" dates to the 1800s. This is nothing new.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#114

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

input_sh wrote: post #106
quacked wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The frustrating thing about the empire collapse is that it doesn't need to happen. There are still tons of highly energized and ostensibly disciplined and competitive people here. It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands and the aesthetic and moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued, for reasons unclear.

I would argue the empire already collapsed, about a year ago when DOGE was tasked with killing every form of soft power that were put in place to present the country in the best possible light across the world. Even with tons of talented and well-intentioned people and everyone fully aligned to re-build everything broken, it'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.

> It'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.

There is some truth to this. Other examples of crossing the line and breaking long-term trust would be:

To Canada: Statements about Canada last year.

To Europe: The idiocy around Greenland earlier this year

To the Middle East: Current events.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#115

Post by convolvatron »

Papazsazsa wrote: post #5

[flagged]

its a measurement process of a large and complicated system. some of the things you cite are actually signs that the system was actually kind of working. CPI is a basket of indicators, there is no way that's ever going to capture the whole picture.

the best we can ask for is apolitical appointees whose goal is to improve the process and transparency about how the data was collected, publication of the raw numbers, and publication of the methodology used to synthesize it.

my understanding that the appointment process has been corrupted, but do we know to what degree transparency has?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#116

Post by anigbrowl »

hattmall wrote: post #83
alexfromapex wrote: post #50

[flagged]

The issue is that this isn't really supply constrained inflation. This is price discovery and discrimination by major retailers. The amount of coupons, conditional sale prices, and member savings has skyrocketed. I have paid rather intense attention to the price of groceries since 2015 when I started purchasing for my business kitchen as we started providing prepared meals. In general, prices are very close to 2015 l…

The amount of coupons, conditional sale prices, and member savings has skyrocketed.

This is a Bad Thing. Sure when I do grocery shopping I keep an eye out for bargains, but I also don't want to have my buying choices overly shaped by the retailer so I end up spending money on stuff I don't really want. I especially don't want to deal with coupons and buy-this-get-that offers. Planning out what to eat and remembering to get what I need is enough mental effort without having to spend time on discountmaxxing which is really just another kind of advertising.

acceptable range [...] Cheese $3 / lb

I don't know what kind of cheese you're getting for $3/lb but I'm pretty sure it isn't good for you.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#117

Post by derektank »

hattmall wrote: post #93
mikeyouse wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This ratchet effect of partially righting the ship every four years followed by drunken sailors YOLOing further into a reef because the ‘responsible party’ didn’t fix things fast enough is unsustainable. No clue how it ends but it’s so much easier to destroy things than it is to build them, so the builders are always at a distinct disadvantage.

I really have a hard time understanding the analogy of the "responsible party" existing, when it was objectively the Biden administration that did the most damage to the average American.

COVID damaged the average American. The Biden administration (and the preceding Trump administration) did not perform perfectly by any means, but US inflation was below that of most other OECD countries. Real wages took a serious hit and I understand people being mad about that, but it’s hard to imagine a world where the supply chain disruptions don’t cause real living standards to fall at least a little bit.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#118

Post by xanthor »

tomrod wrote: post #9
Papazsazsa wrote: post #5

[flagged]

1900 to 2024 for the US. For Iran, China, USSR, for example, you had to back in estimates from observable benchmark information uncontaminated by dictatorships. You didn't have to do that with the US. The US standard has been to document and standardize approaches -- and identify when things are changed and why. This was not common across all economies. It does give us several similar streams, e.g several versions of…

Can you address any of the points the commenter made instead of retreating into an ideological non sequitur?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#119

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

varispeed wrote: post #79
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

[flagged]

Actual evidence of kompromats?

Israel? Bribes? We pay them ...

If one was to really think about national level bribes then presumably Saudi Arabia would be worthy of mention, given their involvement with the Trump (extended) family.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#120

Post by kenferry »

smitty1e wrote: post #58
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

Depending upon which party controls the White House, numbers seem to be released to support a predictable narrative, then adjusted later. But that's probably just my lying' eyes.

Oh yeah? Like when inflation numbers were very high under Biden?

Please give specifics. Otherwise this is just grouchiness.

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