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Most of the US economy is in a recession

businessinsider.com

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Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#111

Post by gruez »

lovich wrote: post #100
gruez wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It wasn’t “revoked under Biden.” That implies the Biden administration (or any administration) gets to define this. No, not any more than "the pandemic started under the Trump administration" implies that they caused the pandemic.

[flagged]

>It does imply that because the Trump admin killed the group involved with preventing pandemics[1]

No it doesn't, not without massively reading in between the lines. This is getting to absurd levels of nitpicking over wording, like "autistic people" vs "people with autism".

>I assume you are being disingenuous by using that claim while also trying to smear the Biden admin.

Two can play at this game. I assume you're being disingenuous by trying to put words in my mouth over tiny disagreements in wording.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#112

Post by maxerickson »

testbjjl wrote: post #69
state_less wrote: post #13

Oil spiked to $110/barrel on the WTI front month futures contract this afternoon, a $20 jump up from Friday. At this pace we'll be at $150 a barrel in a week or two. If oil infrastructure keeps getting hit, even if the strait of hormuz is reopened, it'll take a long time to recover from. That's on top of the continued call for regressive tariffs and a weakening labor market. I think we're heading for a recession unle…

They asked Trump what he thought could go wrong. His only response was appointing a leader worse than the last. That took just over a week and now our $1b per day is going to skyrocket when troops are deployed. Trump has to focus on federalism of elections to stop from being nurtured in November. There was never a plan and he fractured his base. I am not sure how this helps average Americans. Perhaps we’ll have some…

Federalism is the opposite of federal control, which I think you mean.

Also, you probably mean neutered.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#113

Post by dboreham »

_heimdall wrote: post #42

The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble. I obviously don't know if that's true, but that would be extremely clever and this article shows how effective it could be.

This is the first time I've seen anyone looking for a reason! Isn't the reason manifestly obvious? They're bombing their enemies. The ones that lobbied Trump to attack Iran, and that host US defense assets.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#114

Post by arrowsmith »

dzonga wrote: post #80

that's pretty obvious to everyone in the US what's not obvious to most people - is how e.g other countries that are already struggling will get into deeper depths e.g UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US what's not obvious is how a few oil Barrons will make so much money in the next few weeks e.g those in Texas - their great grand-children will ne…

> UK where cost of energy was super high

“Was”?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#115

Post by grumple »

vesrah wrote: post #45
_heimdall wrote: post #42

The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble. I obviously don't know if that's true, but that would be extremely clever and this article shows how effective it could be.

I found this video pretty interesting, it talks about why Iran is going after its neighbors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIS2eB-rGv0

This guy is a well known conspiracy theorist. He's a high school teacher, not a university professor as "Professor Jiang" indicates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Xueqin

Some discussion on reddit about him: https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1rnnq6p/though...

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#116

Post by StilesCrisis »

RustyRussell wrote: post #62
protocolture wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its interesting to me how it has made a lot of people really stupid.

I share this frustration, but a downvote is probably a better reaction than a reply here.

I've been on here for months and still haven't gotten the ability to downvote. I'm not sure why it's put on such a pedestal.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#117

Post by bigbadfeline »

dzonga wrote: post #80

that's pretty obvious to everyone in the US what's not obvious to most people - is how e.g other countries that are already struggling will get into deeper depths e.g UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US what's not obvious is how a few oil Barrons will make so much money in the next few weeks e.g those in Texas - their great grand-children will ne…

> UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US.

UK isn't exactly rich on energy resources, especially after the North Sea oil dried out. Living in a global economy, most oil is still priced in dollars - which the UK can't print - resulting in a tough energy market in the UK and many other places.

Wars are the worst enemies of good life and economic development, it's profoundly revealing to watch how two of largest and richest countries in the world, with the absolute largest nuclear arsenals, are both engaged in the destruction of other countries - one for each... for now.

Both of the attacked countries are fairly large and have significant impact on global prosperity and supply chains...

This isn't a fairy tale.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#119

Post by Spivak »

mlsu wrote: post #4
delichon wrote: post #3

Creative destruction requires both booms and busts together. Capital must flow between sectors for economic adaptation. We're seeing a massive capital shift to AI solutions, recalibrating the whole economy. I have insufficient data to calculate whether that's good or not.

Capital must flow, period. Right now it's accumulating into a very small group of actors and becoming concentrated. There's no way to have a good economy, period, with the amount of consolidation across every sector. The only thing that's actually competitive anymore are restaurants.

Said a different way, when wealth gets concentrated into a few large players the economy starts exhibiting all the problems of centrally planned economies as the number of people who have meaningful wealth to allocate shrinks.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#120

Post by awesome_dude »

amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

I don't think it's a /want/ per se - it's more of an overriding sense that that is where the economy is heading, or is, under the current set of economic policies.

Nobody would care for a millisecond about the doomsayers if there wasn't some dread in their lives about what's happening.

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