It’s Tesla only big tech are the suckers.
OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
111–120 of 620 posts
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla is a car company with relatively small, and shrinking, sales, that is worth $1.5T on the promise of [Elons_Promise_of_the_Month]
You forgot to mention they solved vision based autonomous driving, but I guess that doesn’t matter if Elon = bad
It's this kind of dynamic that makes me pull back on my otherwise pretty AI-forward stance. There's an entire community of people who passionately believe it's obvious and undeniable that Elon Musk has solved problems that he has not solved and his companies deliver things they don't deliver. Tesla is absolutely unambiguous in their marketing material (https://www.tesla.com/fsd) that they do not have autonomous driving, but you're far from the first person I've encountered who's been tricked into believing otherwise.
I don't think that's my relationship with AI, I'm hardly an uncritical booster. But would I know if it was?
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#113Nvidia will get all that money back via GPU purchases, Amazon via cloud rental and SoftBank is being typical SoftBank - a rich but not particularly bright kid in a class :) .
"I give you $30 billion if you use it to buy $30 billion of stuff from me" doesn't sound like a very good investment. Is Nvidia expecting more back than it puts in? Enough more to make the deal profitable? Or is it just to keep Nvidia from crashing?
In the end it's exchanging GPUs for OpenAI shares. It's not a non-trade, and in the current market Nvidia could really sell the stuff for cash. The marginal cost is very much sharply positive.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
So basically, Amazon is buying into the IPO at an early price. Maybe this is the time to divest from MSCI world. I don’t want to be the bag holder in the world’s largest pump and dump. It can both be true at the same time: That AI is going to disrupt our world and that Open AI does not have a business model that supports its valuation.
Did it ever occur to you that an entire generation of developers are going to retire in less than 20 years? They are betting that the software industry will be autonomous. Really, think of our industry like AUV phenomena. We’re the drivers that are about to be shown the door, that’s the bet. World will still need software, lots of it. Their valuation is based on an entire developer-less future world (no labor costs).
OpenAI has all the name recognition (which is worth a couple billion in itself), but when it comes to actual business use cases in the here and now Anthropic seems ahead. Even more so if we are talking about software dev. But they are valued at less than half of OpenAI's valuation
What is somewhat justifying OpenAI's valuation is that they are still trying for AGI. They are not just working on models that work here and now, they are still approaching "simulating worlds" from all kinds of angles (vision, image generation, video generation, world generation), presumably in hopes that this will at some point coalesce in a model with much better understanding of our world and its agency in it. If this comes to pass OpenAI's value is near unlimited. If it doesn't, its value is at best half what it is today
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#115Only $730B? Why stop there? As long as we're making stuff up, let's go big. What about $10T?
Rookie numbers, I say $100T. Go big or go home.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
So basically, Amazon is buying into the IPO at an early price. Maybe this is the time to divest from MSCI world. I don’t want to be the bag holder in the world’s largest pump and dump. It can both be true at the same time: That AI is going to disrupt our world and that Open AI does not have a business model that supports its valuation.
Did it ever occur to you that an entire generation of developers are going to retire in less than 20 years? They are betting that the software industry will be autonomous. Really, think of our industry like AUV phenomena. We’re the drivers that are about to be shown the door, that’s the bet. World will still need software, lots of it. Their valuation is based on an entire developer-less future world (no labor costs).
Even the rise of high-level languages did not lead to a "developer-less future". What it did was improve productivity and make software cheaper by orders of magnitude; but compiler vendors did not benefit all that much from the shift.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#117I guess no GPT on Bedrock still it seems
They announced more OpenAI models coming to bedrock.
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#118Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#119HN told me OpenAI was on the verge of collapse.
Nobody saw coming the huge demand for coding agents. Not even OpenAI or Anthropic themselves. Those were side projects just a year ago and now dominate token demand. And they keep rising.
Oh I do think they did see it, considering how good they are they've probably been a tuning focus for a while.
The signal the agent usage is sending though is that Anthropic is way ahead since all we hear about is Claude these days despite OpenAI spending so much more money, Antrophic is also out trialling vending machines,etc.
ChatGPT apart from generating text was a bit of a query/research tool but now that Google has their AI search augmentation shit somewhat together I'm not feeling much need for ChatGPT as a research partner.
So now the big question is, with coding and search niches curtailed, where will OpenAI be able to generate profits from to justify their insane spending?
Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
Did it ever occur to you that an entire generation of developers are going to retire in less than 20 years? They are betting that the software industry will be autonomous. Really, think of our industry like AUV phenomena. We’re the drivers that are about to be shown the door, that’s the bet. World will still need software, lots of it. Their valuation is based on an entire developer-less future world (no labor costs).
OpenAI has all the name recognition (which is worth a couple billion in itself), but when it comes to actual business use cases in the here and now Anthropic seems ahead. Even more so if we are talking about software dev. But they are valued at less than half of OpenAI's valuation What is somewhat justifying OpenAI's valuation is that they are still trying for AGI. They are not just working on models that work here a…
Obligatory reminder that today's so called "AGI" has trouble figuring out whether I should walk or drive to the car wash in order to get my dirty car washed. It has to think through the scenario step by step, whereas any human can instantly grok the right answer.