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What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

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Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think job search is doomscrolling, because all job openings I see ask for mandatory LLM familiarity. This is where the use of a tool goes beyond "just a tool" and becomes just as important as your own knowledge. In fact, if someone were to tell me that a mediocre candidate was chosen over a widely appraised candidate (open source contributions and all) because the former was more familiar with prompting while…

Haven't we been complaining about leetcode interviews for the last 10 years? How is them requiring AI familiarity any different

It's not. We'll be complaining about requiring AI familiarity for the next 10 years.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#112
post #26

I suggest leaning into the joy a little. I know a lot of people - serious, thoughtful people with impressive careers behind them - who are having the time of their lives right now. I've spoken to multiple people who have come out of retirement because the challenges and opportunities of this new space are irresistible to them. All those side project ideas from the past few decades have suddenly become much more feasi…

I tried leaning into the joy, took about 10 seconds before I remembered I don't have any discretionary spending, that the job market is crashing, that I don't own a house, and the AI is destroying the very industry I trained on since I was eleven, taking my means of surviving away. And no personal project will save us, because everything will drown in a deluge of vibeslop that devalues any kind of work and knowledge.…

> Tell me Simon, what happens with the economy when no one affords more than barely survival?

Everything is awful for almost everyone. I expect even the ultra wealthy will find their lives significantly less pleasant than they were before.

I hope that doesn't happen. That's why I don't write much about "AGI" - I'm unexcited about the concept, at least until someone can convincingly explain how the economy doesn't collapse for regular humans as a result.

I maintain my joy partly by not believing the AGI hype. I refer to that as the science fiction version of AI. I don't think that's what we have today.

We're three years into the ChatGPT revolution now and so far the main observable impact on the craft that I care about is that I can build more ambitious things.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#113

Actually use the tools and critically engage with those who are boosting the extreme takes. You’ll see they’re not a panacea. You’ll find Anthropic started pursuing an IPO right when the hype cycle took off. You’ll discover Shumer is a known liar and grifter. LLMs are here to stay, but we’re in a trillion dollar hype cycle right now.

Yes, critical skepticism is required for processing hype & propaganda.

Keep in mind that predictions of the worst & best outcomes very rarely come true, due in large part to the fact that people react to credible predictions.

For example, the predictions of the worse outcomes of global warming did not come true, in part due to restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.

The substack article I've linked to below makes a solid argument that you should expect serious information truncation of any sort of widely transmitted belief, so if a widely transmitted belief makes you anxious, the best solution is to go find the truncated information.

https://thestrategiclinguist.substack.com/p/the-rule-that-ne...

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#114
post #26

I suggest leaning into the joy a little. I know a lot of people - serious, thoughtful people with impressive careers behind them - who are having the time of their lives right now. I've spoken to multiple people who have come out of retirement because the challenges and opportunities of this new space are irresistible to them. All those side project ideas from the past few decades have suddenly become much more feasi…

I have been using the tools for the last 3 years and I don’t find them joyful. I’m a craftsman at heart and managing agents sounds like an even worse proposal than managing people

The people I know who are having the most fun with this stuff do tend to have had engineering management or other people managing experience in the past.

It's a great deal easier than managing people! Agents don't have ambitions and fears and opinions and egos to take into account.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#115
I'm honestly surprised how most of HN seems to react to it, though I think a big part of it is people not wanting to feel left behind, wanting to think they could be buddies with Sam Altman.

Another part of it is that these AI companies push a vision of the future that is attractive to people. Curing cancer, releasing people from the need to work, the world at your fingertips. They need the public's permission to keep doing what they are doing until they reach the point that public opinion doesn't matter anymore.

It is honestly scary watching people willingly be led to the slaughter. A lot of people have been too comfortable for too long and don't realize how bad things can get. If the Renaissance was about humanism, we are entering an anti-Renaissance period. My answer is don't cope, do something about it. There are already enough people around trying to cope when we need organized action.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#116
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tried leaning into the joy, took about 10 seconds before I remembered I don't have any discretionary spending, that the job market is crashing, that I don't own a house, and the AI is destroying the very industry I trained on since I was eleven, taking my means of surviving away. And no personal project will save us, because everything will drown in a deluge of vibeslop that devalues any kind of work and knowledge.…

> Tell me Simon, what happens with the economy when no one affords more than barely survival? Everything is awful for almost everyone. I expect even the ultra wealthy will find their lives significantly less pleasant than they were before. I hope that doesn't happen. That's why I don't write much about "AGI" - I'm unexcited about the concept, at least until someone can convincingly explain how the economy doesn't col…

great sleight of hand there, making it all about AGI when it wasn't about AGI at all

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#117

Look, so... I'm going to tell you a little about my life and infodump here, but I've already lived chaos and loss of career, existential risk, and fear of death. I've "been there." I'm just some rando on HN, but yeah, here goes. I was a pilot before I got into this tech stuff. For literally ALL of my life all I wanted to do was operate flying vehicles. I built my life around it. I got a summer job in school and paid…

You have some benefit of hindsight, but I feel like your predictions for the future are a bit too set-in-stone. For all the parallels to your first inflection point, you weren't automated away in aviation. By and large, flying today is the exact same it was 10 or even 20 years ago. Some supporting infrastructure and technologies have changed, but the variables of needing pilots, ATCs, maintenance techs and all the other staff have remained pretty much the same. You were unlucky to get hit with one of the most unfair things that can happen to someone working in that industry, but that factor had been a constant for many decades, and the fear of it is quietly lurking in every pilot's mind.

So, how do we apply this to the current situation? When the first crisis hit you, you were able to pivot. But what now? Are you going to move to doing something else again? What are you going to do? If we assume the AI-maximalist view, all mental work is potentially on the chopping block at some point, which is what you're doing right now. This isn't something that only affects one industry where you can scoot over someplace else and enjoy the normality - this could influence a whole class of labor. And what happens if you don't have reserves of money, experience and connections, like everyone who's starting out now? If the most optimistic AI views come to pass (and you seem to be convinced in that), for the rest of us it's a one-way ticket to a lifetime of hauling sand on construction sites for pennies, or doing a similar type of work while competing with millions of people who used to do menial jobs.

Luckily, the maximalist future isn't here yet, and I think the odds of it unfolding fully slowly fall over time. But either way, it will be a massive gut punch to most kinds of mental work. So what do you do now? It feels like you're accusing those other people of denial, like everyone has obviously come to the same conclusion as you but can't accept it, but you have also created a mental way out for explaining why the current situation is good. What gives you the idea that we'll be happily out of work? The way I see it, the automation of mental tasks will force everyone to do hard labor while competing with everyone else in an effort not to die on the streets. Productivity will surge, but we've transferred so much power to the top of society that we've all but ensured that we're not ever getting it back, and those people will never have a reason to have that extra wealth trickle down to the unemployed. If this future becomes real, things will be very, very bad.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#118
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tell me Simon, what happens with the economy when no one affords more than barely survival? Everything is awful for almost everyone. I expect even the ultra wealthy will find their lives significantly less pleasant than they were before. I hope that doesn't happen. That's why I don't write much about "AGI" - I'm unexcited about the concept, at least until someone can convincingly explain how the economy doesn't col…

great sleight of hand there, making it all about AGI when it wasn't about AGI at all

I categorize "nobody has a job any more" as part of the AGI conversation, especially since one of the more common AGI definitions floating around is OpenAI's "highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work" from https://openai.com/charter/

So I don't buy your "sleight of hand" criticism here. If you ignore the fact that I used the acronym AGI what did you think of my response?

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is getting really good at too many things, so this feels very different. I have a claude "skill/program/mega-prompt" for health: https://github.com/nexivibe/md/blob/main/DOCTOR.md I gave it absolutely everything, and praise be to the machine I get the best debate and recommendations I've ever seen. I check what I know to be true, and it's there. I check the logic, and it is sound. I check the medication recommenda…

> AI is getting really good at too many things, so this feels very different. How are you going to follow that up with a single anecdotal example? Respectfully, shame on you. That said, summary (information compression) along with low-level inference does seem to be the tasks that A.I. is best at right now. Little surprise there. Information compression is the sole purpose of the attention transformer in the first pl…

Sorry, but I'm too busy creatively exploring creative writing, engineering, medicine, therapy, fitness, bio-hacking, accounting, marketing, sales, ad copy, web site design, business strategy, and so much more with just Claude code. I'm maxing my weekly max x20, and this thing is good. It is better than me and every professional I've met in my entire life.

It doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be better than 80% of the knowledge economy. It's there. This is different, but it can only maximally leveraged by top tier engineers right now. That will change in eight months.

I gave you a super power prompt, and you want more? Respectfully, shame on you.

Re: What are the best coping mechanisms for AI Fatalism?

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is getting really good at too many things, so this feels very different. I have a claude "skill/program/mega-prompt" for health: https://github.com/nexivibe/md/blob/main/DOCTOR.md I gave it absolutely everything, and praise be to the machine I get the best debate and recommendations I've ever seen. I check what I know to be true, and it's there. I check the logic, and it is sound. I check the medication recommenda…

I did something very similar, but less focused on dialogue and more focused on deep analysis of medical research papers for a specific condition. Like you, I got really outstanding results.

Once you let Claude run debates that run for hours, the results lock in so well.

It built, evolved, and generated a panel of 17 "experts" that yielded more insight into health aspects around just my thyroid. I got the absolute best representation of the entire discussion around different options I've seen in my entire life.

It's AMAZING.

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