In many ways this gambling infatuation is worse than cryptocurrency, and with possibly more damaging externalities
Hmmm... crypto is bad for the planet though.
Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
111–120 of 176 posts
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#112Speculation and concern from a naive observer: Is it polymarket presenting this ability to detect insiders? Or is someone trying to sell the service of detecting insiders to those wanting to know if bets are on equal footing? (or wanting to follow insiders? or wanting to hide your identity by making multiple accounts? Are there per-account fees, when polymarket might encourage people to make multiple accounts?) Regar…
> Regardless, polymarket seems to be on balance corrupting, by monetizing and normalizing use of inside information,
This is a common take on "inside information", but for most people this opinion is totally unaligned with their own goals. The people who benefit from "no insider trading" in any market, are a small group of active traders, some institutional, some not.
For literally everyone else, insider trading is a net win. Insider trading improves price discovery. If you passively invest then you benefit from the price being more accurate when whatever fraction of your paycheck goes into the market.
I don't know your own situation, maybe you are one of those few traders who needs information to spread a certain way in order to make money. For everyone else, don't be fooled into promoting an idea against your own interests.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
If I'm an insider with 100% confidence, I'll take all offers at a certain price as long as I can afford it. Similar story for lower levels of confidence (but still inside info). There won't necessarily be any left for you to copy at a viable price.
> Similar story for lower levels of confidence therefore, the polymarket betting odds will reflect the truth - even if that info is a secret that nobody else but the insider knows. And if this is the case, then even an outsider could make use of the odds as a source of info which would ensure that market efficiency (which is about the flow of information) is high. So what's wrong with insider trading again?
It rewards blatant corruption? What's the benefit is the bigger question.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#114In many ways this gambling infatuation is worse than cryptocurrency, and with possibly more damaging externalities
Hmmm... crypto is bad for the planet though.
If you're talking about crypto mining, all of the big smart contract platforms that can run something like Polymarket are running on proof of stake. Their energy usage is comparable to any other internet protocol with a similar amount of traffic.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#115> Prediction markets have been called "truth machines" because anyone who has information missing from the market can profit. That sounds like "insider trading" machines, or "scam" machines, rather than truth machines.
yes, they allow you to pay people who have information about the future for that information, in a distributed manner. this is great if, like many people, you want information about the future.
They also allow people to convince those who trust that prediction markets are accurate barometers of likeliness that certain events will be likely with a meager amount of money.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#116Isn’t this the motivation behind polymarket? To incentivize those that have information to bet as a signal of “truth”. What I don’t get is why would anyone bet on this stuff that don’t have insider information besides those with gambling addiction.
It’s a gambling site. The motivation behind it is to make money through transaction fees. You can bet on sports games too.
Since when does polymarket charge transaction fees?
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#117Speculation and concern from a naive observer: Is it polymarket presenting this ability to detect insiders? Or is someone trying to sell the service of detecting insiders to those wanting to know if bets are on equal footing? (or wanting to follow insiders? or wanting to hide your identity by making multiple accounts? Are there per-account fees, when polymarket might encourage people to make multiple accounts?) Regar…
> Regardless, polymarket seems to be on balance corrupting, by monetizing and normalizing use of inside information, This is a common take on "inside information", but for most people this opinion is totally unaligned with their own goals. The people who benefit from "no insider trading" in any market, are a small group of active traders, some institutional, some not. For literally everyone else, insider trading is a…
In fact, a lot of people claim that the main point of prediction markets is to give the general public better predictions, and insider participation actually helps with that.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
yes, they allow you to pay people who have information about the future for that information, in a distributed manner. this is great if, like many people, you want information about the future.
They also allow people to convince those who trust that prediction markets are accurate barometers of likeliness that certain events will be likely with a meager amount of money.
The amount of money depends on how big the markets are.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
but like, here in the real world, farmers use weather derivatives. so the technology works, has a use case, is proven. if your point is that one should not treat the market's number as some oracular probability, then... of course i agree! there is no such thing. the market provides a signal, like any other.
Not a farmer, but I believe they use weather derivatives to hedge and weather forecasts for predictions? Going through markets for weather forecasts is adding a level of indirection that generates a noisier signal. The idea when hedging isn't to win on expected value. It's to reduce risk. You're paying the market to provide insurance. As a side effect, insurance does sometimes generate interesting data. The insurance…
Good points, but commodity futures and stock prices take into account all sorts of information. They go haywire sometimes but given how hard it is to beat the market, they seem to do a pretty good job of aggregating it all.
Re: Uncovering insiders and alpha on Polymarket with AI
#120I mean, why is this surprising when you have this
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/inside-trump-familys-...