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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#111

Post by MaybiusStrip »

fabian2k wrote: post #12
z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

I think it's fair to put the burden of proof here on Tesla. They should convince people that their Robotaxis are safe. If they redact the details about all incidents so that you cannot figure out who's at fault, that's on Tesla alone.

This has nothing to do with burden of proof, it has to do with journalistic accuracy, and this is obviously a hit piece. HN prides itself on being skeptical and then eats up "skeptic slop."

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#112

Post by philipallstar »

thecupisblue wrote: post #94
epolanski wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

That is why all the crazy promises and moves, hyping X.ai, Robotaxis, Optimus, Data centers in space. If you are constantly promising the future and some radical moves, the optimistic investors believe him and he can keep increasing the "potential future valuation". But when you look at it: - X.ai is basically getting into the race by throwing money at the problem and using your name to get funding in a hyped industr…

> - X.ai is basically getting into the race by throwing money at the problem and using your name to get funding in a hyped industry.

Well, everyone is doing that. That's what AI research is.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#113

Post by tsimionescu »

user34283 wrote: post #102
adriand wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would call strong opposition to Musk a democratic responsibility, not a derangement. We are talking about a guy with a fondness for the far right and throwing Nazi salutes, and whose destruction of USAID had, by November 2025, resulted in “hundreds of thousands of deaths”. [1] Those, of course, are just a couple of examples. If strong opposition to that kind of evil makes me deranged, count me in. 1: https://hsph.h…

I strongly oppose the constant slander and the litany of lies partisan commenters post about Musk. You don't get to throw out "fondness for throwing Nazi salutes" slander, based on an hoax immediately debunked at the time, and then act like you're doing democracy a favor. Try to stick to the facts. Regarding the journalist discussed here, I had a look at his X account, and he posted no less than 20 posts attacking Te…

> based on an hoax immediately debunked at the time

We've all seen the video, there is no hoax and no doubt that he was doing a nazi salute, with some level of "humor" defense.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#114

Post by dgb23 »

kakacik wrote: post #54
epolanski wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

> Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. I see nothing wrong here, correction back to reality. I understand why people adored him blindly in the early days, but liking him now after its clear what sort of person he is and always will be is same as liking trump. Many people still do it, but its hardly a defensible position unless on is already invested in his empire…

They also reported tiny profits that are just slightly above what they get in as subsidies. P/E compared to other similar companies is also through the roof.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#115

Post by AlexandrB »

cbeach wrote: post #39
lvl155 wrote: post #23

I am so tired of people defending Tesla. I’ve wrote off Tesla long time ago but what gets me are the people defending their tech. We all can go see the products and experience them. The tech needs to be at least 100x more error free vs humans. It cannot be on par with human error rate.

We tend to defend companies that push the frontiers of self-driving cars, because the technology has the potential to save lives and make life easier and cheaper for everyone. As engineers, we understand that the technology will go from unsafe, to par-with-humans, to safer-than-humans, but in order for it to get to the latter, it requires much validation and training in an intermediate state, with appropriate safegua…

> Tesla's approach has been more risk averse and conservative than others.

You lost me here. Tesla's approach has absolutely not been risk averse or conservative. They've allowed random public "testers" to beta test their self driving stack while even they called it a "beta". They've irresponsibly called the feature "full self driving" when it wasn't able to do any such thing. They've made completely outlandish promises (like FSD driving you from coast to coast in 2016). Finally they've staged marketing videos of FSD "working"[1]. Just deplorable stuff and using the public as their guinea pigs (and piggie bank).

> Its ethics are sound.

You've got to be joking. Where's the "/s"?

[1] https://techcrunch.com/2023/01/17/tesla-engineer-testifies-t...

Edit: Forgot another Tesla chonker of a promise. Remember when Elon said a Tesla car would be an appreciating asset because it would make you money by acting as a robotaxi when you're not using it? That was in 2019[2]. Has your Model S appreciated? Are you able to sell it for more today than the purchase price?

[2] https://electrek.co/2025/03/18/elon-musk-biggest-lie-tesla-v...

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#116

Post by philipallstar »

janc_ wrote: post #92
epolanski wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

Before people believe the Tesla robot hype they should probably consider that Toyota has been making cars AND robots for longer than Tesla exists.

And they started making electric cars in the mid-90s. They almost sold 400 of them, so that experience has definitely paid off.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#117

Post by zemvpferreira »

UltraSane wrote: post #66
epolanski wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

I really hope I live to see Tesla stock crash to a reasonable valuation.

I dislike Tesla/Elon but would prefer the reality where they innovate until their worth matches their current price. I suspect yours is more likely to happen.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#118

Post by awakeasleep »

UltraSane wrote: post #63
mcherm wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The real take away is that the Robotaxis don't really exist More accurately, the real takeaway is that Tesla's robo-taxis don't really exist.

Because it is fraud trying to inflate Tesla stock price.

The real term is “marketing puffery.” It’s a fun, legally specific way to describe a company bullshitting to hype its product.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#119

Post by tsimionescu »

giorgioz wrote: post #100

Yes on one side Tesla is not transparent but on the other side the author of the article is an hypocrite given they went with the click-bait title "Tesla’s own Robotaxi data confirms crash rate 3x worse than humans even with monitor" Tesla secrecy is likely due to avoid journalists taking any chance they can to sell more news by writing an autonomous vehicles horror story. Given the secrecy we don't know what happene…

While the title is slightly biased, it's completely fair to analyze all of the public data a company provides about a very public problem (how safe their autonomous cars are), and show what the risks are. If Tesla wants us to believe their robotaxis are safe (which they implicitly do by putting these on public roads), it's entirely on them to publish data that supports that claim. If the data they themselves publish suggests that they are much worse than human drivers, then I want journalists to report on that.

It's also extremely implausible that Tesla has data that their cars are very safe, but choose to instead publish vague data that makes them seem much worse. It's for example much more likely that these 9 incidents reported are just the bad incidents that they think they won't be able to hide, rather than assuming these are all or mostly minor incidents like lightly bumping into a static object.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#120

Post by ghaff »

stevage wrote: post #96

Hard to believe that in 2017, I was utterly convinced that self-driving cars would be the majority of all cars on the road within 5 years.

- There was a lot of hype

- A lot of people fervently hoped they wouldn't need to drive for much longer and their kids wouldn't even need to learn

- So much progress had been made with deep learning is a fairly short length of time that surely we were on the cusp of broadly deployed autonomous vehicles.

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