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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

111–120 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#111

China is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency[1,2,3]. My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar. Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4] 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s... 2 - https://www.economist.com/china/20…

Yes, the S&P rose only 4% last year for EUR investors.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#112

Compromised people and useful idiots within the Trump administration are being persuaded by Russia to destroy the dollar and break up NATO.

Are you certain inflating the money supply with trillions of dollars by prior administrations did not have an effect?

Well, yeah. Because there hasn't been any significant fluctuation in exchange rates. You can also see the decline in the velocity of money that's offsetting the increase in the money supply metrics (numbers checked on FRED). It's very clear that we haven't had unprecedented inflation. So the burden of proof is on you... why would the increase in the money supply matter when all metrics are saying otherwise?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#113

China is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency[1,2,3]. My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar. Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4] 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s... 2 - https://www.economist.com/china/20…

Gold is not "real money", come on.

It's a lot less Fiat than USD.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#114

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

There is a very sudden shift though - those options have existed but not generally been seriously considered. The US was seen as a bastion of stability and while sanctions could drastically impact a country's ability to trade due to the reliance on US currency exchange it has arguably been used relatively scarcely.

The change is that suddenly the US isn't a bastion of stability and having an independent trading currency could ensure more internal stability for other nations.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#116
post #25

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

[flagged]

> The federal reserve has no constitutional right to exist or be independent.

Do we suddenly care about the constitution again?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#118

Compromised people and useful idiots within the Trump administration are being persuaded by Russia to destroy the dollar and break up NATO.

Are you certain inflating the money supply with trillions of dollars by prior administrations did not have an effect?

It assuredly did. For example, the first Trump administration is responsible for ~25% of the current money supply, with the second Trump term only contributing about 6%.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#119

For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

Euro?

The harsh reality is that a federated state system with a very weak governing body economically and politically is extremely unlikely to be the global trade currency.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#120
post #25

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

[flagged]

That’s correct, Congress could pass a law removing its independence or eliminating it entirely whenever it so chooses. Until then, it’s independent because that’s how Congress created it using its powers under Article 1 of the Constitution.
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