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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#111

Post by reducesuffering »

al_borland wrote: post #74

Trump has floated the idea of eliminating federal income tax completely, which would balance things out. I think I’d rather pay taxes in the form of tariffs than through income tax. The tariffs can help protect jobs from being outsourced, which has been a big issue over the last several decades. With everyone talking about out AI coming for our jobs, having more options for employment seems like a good thing. I suppo…

Our current deficit is $600B. Individual income taxes are $2.7B. Where is your $3.3T hole going to come from?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#112

Post by hbarka »

floren wrote: post #83
throw101010 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FOX News, after their scandal with Dominion, should have been broken down or even shutdown. They deliberately disinformed the public, there is blatant evidence that the news anchors were aware that they were lying. Not just bending facts a little or opining, but knowingly and purposefully lying. The pretext of freedom of expression, and more narrowly freedom of press should not *continue* to apply to businesses/indiv…

Can you stretch your imagination to a scenario in which a hostile administration, eager to shut down critical reporting, might declare that various outlets are engaging in fake news and must thus be shut down? Let's be glad a precedent wasn't set.

You forgot the /s

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#113

Post by 0xy »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

Those same economists warning about tariffs also warned it would lead to runaway skyrocketing inflation and quote "the mother of all recessions" [1] [2] [3], which objectively did not happen. The same economists were nowhere to be seen when prices doubled 2020-24 and the official inflation numbers were 13%.

Once again proving that economists are engaged in mere astrology.

You also frame the argument that the last administration was tariff opposed, after they issued a 10% blanket tariff on the US' largest trading partner and tariffed Canadian wood products, directly causing house prices to skyrocket during the pandemic. You will never consider those impacts, because you're engaged in a fundamentally political argument, not an economic one.

The US has 4% GDP growth and a 2.7% inflation run rate. Wage growth is exceeding inflation again. Data doesn't lie, but economists do. Routinely.

[1] https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/other/economist-warns-of-moth...

[2] https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/13/economy/inflation-trump-econo...

[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-economists-warn-...

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#115

Post by dfee »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #63
dfee wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

even if we take the number presented as fact (i'm not sure we should), the articles claim is that: > "Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden-the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers." so yeah, the exporter does pay some burden. it's not binary. indeed, tariff exports can be designed in a way to dial either direction. certainly, we could dial foreign exporters burden to 0% – and we could d…

> finally, the effect of tariffs is argued to be wealth transfer to the US Treasury. this is worth thinking harder about. but also, exports may change from whom goods are purchased. thus, it's a diplomatic policy, as well. It's a national sales tax really.

Yeah – I think that's what the paper suggests.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#116

Post by PaulRobinson »

hirako2000 wrote: post #93
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

It isn't US specific and what goes into people's head is what propaganda wants it to be. Economics tell people the clear impact, but it doesn't make the news. We get fed with whatever the political influencers decide to tell us. Did the brits expect the consequence of brexit? No but that's because they deemed whatever the news said to be unreliable on this topic. Which for once happened to be true.

Actually, it's pretty clear to those who have been paying attention that the main influence that swung the polls by about 4% from Remain to Leave in the last 2 days was a £10m advertising campaign on Facebook packed with lies, paid for by a Brexiteer who can't quite explain to the Electoral Commission where that money came from, but it did seem to just "appear" a few days after he allegedly met with the Russian ambassador to the UK.

I'd get out more, but my tinfoil hat doesn't like the rain.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#117

Post by rjrjrjrj »

stavros wrote: post #90
ungreased0675 wrote: post #2

> Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead. What if that was the intended result?

Isn't that exactly the point of tariffs? To decrease import volumes so local industry can fill the gap and compete?

Not so much compete as being protected from having to compete.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#118

Post by threethirtytwo »

Well the purpose of the tariff is to control US Americans to rely less on foreign goods. So of course to control something you would enact policies that affect the thing you’re trying to control.

If the importer took on most of the burden that would defeat the purpose of the tariff.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#119

Post by wolvoleo »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

I'm not American but I don't think tariffs were mentioned in Trump's campaign? It was more the 'stick it to the liberals' and 'drain the swamp' stuff.

He only started that tariff stuff when he took office.

Edit: Clearly I was not following things well enough, sorry for the wrong information.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#120

Post by fnands »

drstewart wrote: post #88

Has this institute done an analysis of the VAT own goal by Germany? What percentage is paid by EU Germans?

All of it? There's no question about who pays VAT, and there never has been. You can have whatever opinion you want on VAT, but there's never been any messaging that anyone else will be paying for VAT.
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