Live data from Hacker News

Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

garymarcus.substack.com

111–120 of 346 posts

Re: Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

#111
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but think about what it's replacing. If you hired a human, it will cost you thousands a week. Humans will also fail at basic tasks, get stuck in useless loops, and you still have to pay them for all that time. For that matter, even if I'm not hiring anyone, I will still get stuck on projects and burn through the finite number of hours I have on this planet trying to figure stuff out and being wrong for a lot of…

You’ve missed my point here - I agree that gen AI has changed everything and is useful, _but_ I disagree that it’s improved substantially - which is what the comment I replied to claimed. Anecdotally I’ve seen no difference in model changes in the last year, but going from LLM to Claude code (where we told the LLMs they can use tools on our machines) was a game changer. The improvement there was the agent loop and th…

In my experience it has gotten considerably better. When I get it to generate C, it often gets the pointer logic correct, which wasn't the case three years ago. Three years ago, ChatGPT would struggle with even fairly straightforward LaTeX, but now I can pretty easily get it to generate pretty elaborate LaTeX and I have even had good success generating LuaTeX. I've been able to fairly successfully have it generate TLA+ spec from existing code now, which didn't work even a year ago when I tried it.

Of course, sample size of one, so if you haven't gotten those results then fair enough, but I've at least observed it getting a lot better.

Re: Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

#112
Download models you can find now and forever. The guardrails will only get worse, or models banned entirely. Whether it's because of "hurts people's health" or some other moral panic, it will kill this tech off.

gpt-oss isn't bad, but even models you cannot run are worth getting since you may be able to run them in the future.

I'm hedging against models being so nerfed they are useless. (This is unlikely, but drives are cheap and data is expensive.)

Re: Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

#113
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Generative AI, as we know it, has only existed ~5-6 years, and it has improved substantially, and is likely to keep improving. Every 2/3 months we're hearing there's a new model that just blows the last one out of the water for coding. Meanwhile, here I am with Opus and Sonnet for $20/mo and it's regularly failing at basic tasks, antigravity getting stuck in loops and burning credits. We're talking "copy basic exam…

You’re doing exactly the thing that the parent commenter pointed out: Complaining that they’re not perfect yet as if that’s damning evidence of failure. We all know LLMs get stuck. We know they hallucinate. We know they get things wrong. We know they get stuck in loops. There are two types of people: The first group learns to work within these limits and adapt to using them where they’re helpful while writing the cod…

Someone else said this perfectly farther down:

> The whole discourse around LLMs is so utterly exhausting. If I say I don't like them for almost any reason, I'm a luddite. If I complain about their shortcomings, I'm just using it wrong. If I try and use it the "right" way and it still gets extremely basic things wrong, then my expectations are too high.

As I’ve said, I use LLMs, and I use tools that are assisted by LLMs. They help. But they don’t work anywhere near as reliably as people talk about them working. And that hasn’t changed in the 18 months since I first promoted v0 to make me a website.

Re: Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

#114
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Generative AI, as we know it, has only existed ~5-6 years, and it has improved substantially, and is likely to keep improving. Every 2/3 months we're hearing there's a new model that just blows the last one out of the water for coding. Meanwhile, here I am with Opus and Sonnet for $20/mo and it's regularly failing at basic tasks, antigravity getting stuck in loops and burning credits. We're talking "copy basic exam…

There’s a subtle point a moment when you HAVE to take the driver wheel from the AI. All issues I see are from people insisting to use far beyond the point it stops being useful. It is a helper, a partner, it is still not ready go the last mile

As someone else said in this thread:

> The whole discourse around LLMs is so utterly exhausting. If I say I don't like them for almost any reason, I'm a luddite. If I complain about their shortcomings, I'm just using it wrong. If I try and use it the "right" way and it still gets extremely basic things wrong, then my expectations are too high.

I’m perfectly happy to write code, to use these tools. I do use them, and sometimes they work (well). Other times they have catastrophic failures. But apparently it’s my failure for not understanding the tool or expecting too much of the tool, while others are screaming from the rooftops about how this new model changes everything (which happens every 3 months at this point)

Re: Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

#115
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I maintain that most anti-AI sentiment is actually anti-lying-tech-CEO sentiment misattributed. The technology is neat, the people selling it are ghouls.

Exactly: the technology is useful but because the executive class is hyping it as close to AGI because their buddies are slavering for layoffs. If that “when do you get fired?” tone wasn’t behind the conversation, I think a lot of people would be interested in applying LLMs to the smaller subset of things they actually perform well at.

Maybe CEOs should face consequences for going on the stage and outwardly lying. Instead they're rewarded by a bump in stock price because people appear to have amnesia.

Re: Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

#117
Ignoring the actual poor quality of this write-up, I think we don't know how well GenAI is going to be honest. I feel we've not been able to properly measure or assess it's actual impact yet.

Even as I use it, and I use it everyday, I can't really assess its true impact. Am I more productive or less overall? I'm not too sure. Do I do higher quality work or lower quality work overall? I'm not too sure.

All I know, it's pretty cool, and using it is super easy. I probably use it too much, in a way, that it actually slows things down sometimes, when I use it for trivial things for example.

At least when it comes to productivity/quality I feel we don't really know yet.

But there are definite cool use-cases for it, I mean, I can edit photos/videos in ways I simply could not before, or generate a logo for a birthday party, I couldn't do that before. I can make a tune that I like, even if it's not the best song in the world, but it can have the lyrics I want. I can have it extract whatever from a PDF. I can have it tell me what to watch out for in a gigantic lease agreement I would not have bothered reading otherwise.

I can have it fix my tests, or write my tests, not sure if it saves me time, but I hate doing that, so it definitely makes it more fun and I can kind of just watch videos at the same time, what I couldn't before. Coding quality of life improvements are there too, I want to generate a sample JSON out of a JSONSchema, and so on. If I want, I can write the a method using English prompts instead of the code itself, might not truly be faster or not, not sure, but sometimes it's less mentally taxing, depending on my mood, it can be more fun or less fun, etc.

All those are pretty awesome wins and a sign that for sure those things will remain and I will happily pay for them. So maybe it depends on what you expected.

Re: Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

#118
post #2

This post is literally just 4 screenshots of articles, not even its own commentary or discussion.

Don’t be too harsh, it’s the most effort Gary has put into his criticism in a while

I appreciate good critique but this is not it

Re: Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which ones are you claiming have already been achieved? My understanding of the current scorecard is that he's still technically correct, though I agree with you there is velocity heading towards some of these things being proven wrong by 2029. For example, in the recent thread about LLMs and solving an Erdos problem I remember reading in the comments that it was confirmed there were multiple LLMs involved as well as…

The bug-free code one feels unfalsifiable to me. How do you prove that 10,000 lines of code is bug-free, and then there's a million caveats about what a bug actually is and how we define one. The second claim about novels seems obviously achieved to me. I just pasted a random obscure novel from project gutenberg into a file and asked claude questions about the characters, and then asked about the motivations of a ran…

I've done similar loose experiments using a 19th century French novel I have read (L'Agonie by Jean Lombard), and which is quite obscure. There is no English translation of the novel published.

Using Gemini Notebooks I've found it passable at summarizing chapters, listing characters, major theme and so on, and it can do this in English.

"What is the symbolism of the Black Stone?"

> In the sources, the Black Stone (referred to as the Pierre-Noire) serves as the central religious icon of the Syrian Sun cult brought to Rome by the Emperor Elagabalus. Its symbolism is multifaceted, ranging from fertility and virility to a mystical pursuit of universal unity.

> It represents the perennity of the Sun, which fertilizes the world, causing "germs to rise" and spreading them through the atmosphere. It is viewed as the "definitive form" of divinity, intended to absorb and replace the "transitory forms" of all other Roman, Greek, Egyptian, and Persian gods, including the Christian "Kreistos". > Virility and Phallic Symbolism > > The sources explicitly characterize the Black Stone as a gigantic sacred phallus. It is described as: • An icon of virility and the "organ of generation" • A "unisexual icon" that materializes the generative force of nature • A representation of "virility in activity," which is why it is often paraded and elevated in an "orgasmic" or "colossal adoration"

> The Androgyne and Universal Unity - Beyond simple fertility, the philosopher Atillius explains a more complex, "mad" metaphysical project associated with the stone. It symbolizes "Life One" (Vie Une) and the return to a unisexual state of perfection. • The Androgyne: Atillius believes that by pursuing "the male sex by the male sex," the cult "inutilizes" the female sex to eventually create the Androgyne—a self-sufficient being containing both sexes • Unity: The stone signifies the fusion of all generative forces into a single Unity, reversing the "separation of the sexes" which is viewed as a state of unhappiness and impotence. • Marriage of Moon and Sun: The ritual marriage of the goddess Astaroth (representing the Moon and the female principle) to the Black Stone (representing the Sun and the male principle) symbolizes the merging of the Orient and Occident into this unified life principle > > Destruction of the Symbol - The Black Stone ultimately becomes a symbol of Oriental pollution and decadence to the Roman populace. During the final rebellion against Elagabalus, the stone is torn from its temple on the Palatine, defiled with filth, and broken into pieces to ensure that its "signification of Life" would never again dominate Rome.

This is all accurate to the book, even teasing out a couple themes that were only subconsciously present to me.

The NotebookLM version gives citations with links to the original text to support all these assertions, which largely are coherent with that purpose.

The input is raw images of a book scan! Imperfect as it is it still blows my mind. Not that long ago any kind of semantic search or analysis was a very hard AI problem.

Re: Let's be honest, Generative AI isn't going all that well

#120
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would strongly recommend this podcast episode with Andrej Karpathy. I will poorly summarize it by saying his main point is that AI will spread like any other technology. It’s not going to be a sudden flash and everything is done by AI. It will be a slow rollout where each year it automates more and more manual work, until one day we realize it’s everywhere and has become indispensable. It sounds like what you are s…

AI first of all is not a technology. Can people get their words straight before typing?

Is LLM a technology? Are you complaining about the use of AI to mean LLM? Because I think that ship has sailed
Post reply on HN