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China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
111–120 of 120 posts
Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
Plenty of countries gave Huawei the same treatment the US did, and the US and its allies have the weight to impose sanctions, tariffs, etc to punish consumers within their borders for daring to consider better and cheaper options.
Ok, but BYD is everywhere
Chinese electric vehicles are unofficially banned in Polish army bases, probably in other countries too.
Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or maybe CXMT is not dumb? If the worldwide price of some commodity is $100 and you can produce an item that is nearly as good as everyone else’s, would you sell it for $98 or for $50? Or the supply of non-CXMT DRAM is sufficient poor right now that Chinese buyers, of which there are plenty, are willing to pay approximately as much for CXMT’s product as for anyone else’s? CXMT’s real ability to reduce prices will com…
If they have the runway, they can try the tried and true method of undercutting competitors until they fold, and then capture the market for themselves. Investors have the stomach for this tactic, surely a company with the state's backing can remain solvent even longer than those funded by private investors.
I think the economics are wrong for this, at least so far. CXMT seems to be scaling up as fast as they can, and they have maybe 5% market share. They can’t flood the market with cheap DRAM because they don’t have enough DRAM yet — I’m not convinced they could materially impact anyone else’s profits even if they literally gave away their entire output. At best selling their product cheaply might help them gain some mindshare as integrators test it and hopefully discover that it meets the spec and works fine. What they need is capital and time with which to scale, and selling at a profit-maximizing price will get them the most capital, and this benefit may well exceed the actual profit on goods sold: the stock market might appreciate that they are profitable, thus making it easier for them to obtain funding under favorable terms.
If they actually want to try to destroy their competitors by undercutting them, they need to be able supply enough DRAM to actually drive down the price. At the rate that the big buyers are buying DRAM, that will take several more years at least.
I’m curious whether their presumed inability to buy ASML machines might actually help them. If they can meet the target DDR5 and HBM specs without EUV while maintaining decent yield and acceptable power consumption of the finished product, they may well be able to out-scale their competitors. I imagine it’s a lot easier to procure the equipment for additional DUV lines than EUV lines, especially with other Chinese vendors doing their best to supply semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
No thank you, for the overconfident misinformation. Of the three large DRAM companies in the world Micron is the only one based in the USA. Micron s/uses/“will use” ASML’s EUV machines[0] in New York. Micron shares some info on their EUV DRAM process[1]. DRAM composed 80% of Micron’s revenue, NAND is about 20%. 0: https://www.syracuse.com/business/2023/09/mind-boggling-mach... 1: https://www.micron.com/products/memor…
> Micron uses ASML’s EUV machines in New York Will use. The fab isn't built yet.
Micron's FQ1 2026 report says they expect their 1-gamma process (uses EUV) to the be the majority of their bit output by the second half of the year. The same report says they've already begun sampling 1-gamma parts to OEMs, so they must have a fab somewhere using EUV already.
https://investors.micron.com/static-files/530bd7ed-a8c8-4687...
Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Micron uses ASML’s EUV machines in New York Will use. The fab isn't built yet.
Micron's FQ1 2026 report says they expect their 1-gamma process (uses EUV) to the be the majority of their bit output by the second half of the year. The same report says they've already begun sampling 1-gamma parts to OEMs, so they must have a fab somewhere using EUV already. https://investors.micron.com/static-files/530bd7ed-a8c8-4687...
The Boise plant is being reactivated and is not ready for EUV production yet. The Syracuse plant won't be running until 2030. Their Japan and Taiwan fabs are scheduled for the 1-gamma rollout.
Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or maybe CXMT is not dumb? If the worldwide price of some commodity is $100 and you can produce an item that is nearly as good as everyone else’s, would you sell it for $98 or for $50? Or the supply of non-CXMT DRAM is sufficient poor right now that Chinese buyers, of which there are plenty, are willing to pay approximately as much for CXMT’s product as for anyone else’s? CXMT’s real ability to reduce prices will com…
If they have the runway, they can try the tried and true method of undercutting competitors until they fold, and then capture the market for themselves. Investors have the stomach for this tactic, surely a company with the state's backing can remain solvent even longer than those funded by private investors.
RAM is cheap to make (well, relativly).
Undercutting the competitors is done when a business is working close to cost and a slight anomaly (eg. competitor that doesn't have to make profit, is subsidized or is cheaper for some artificial reason) makes them go out of business.
A stick of ram, made for $10, that used to cost $20 is now $100 due to the AI bubble (numbers pulled out of my ass)... you'd have to bring the prices down to $15 or even less to make those companies fold, but you can earn much more if you sell your ram at $80.
Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
#117Would love to see them succeed and take on the pc builder market, aka hobbyist market. Honestly, the recent rise in RAM left me behind with a huge amount of disbelief and anger. Anger primarily, because big corporations are responsible for draining the market, while on the other hand a Satya Nadella states that they are sitting on a pile of GPUs they cannot use because of limited power.[1] I simply cannot understand…
It's a colossal misallocation of resources by a handful of fucknuggets so wealthy that they will never experience real consequences for it. Meanwhile, everyone else is made to suffer.
What's horrifying is that many of them are going to ask for bailouts in the future - using the reason of "national security".
Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's true. Coke and Pepsi dominate the worldwide drink market, but due to the immense size of the market, there are always up-and-coming competitors. Go to your local superstore, supermarket, or your local convenience store. You'll find Coke and Pepsi, lots of it, but you'll also find no-name drinks and sodas from drink companies that are not as well established yet or well known. That those exist is a good thing,…
I'm not forced to drink Coke or Pepsi if I go to a bar. Only if I specifically want a cola I very likely get whatever cola they got (likely either Coke or Pepsi). If you want to use a computer, it will have DRAM, and you'll end up with one of the DRAM hardware manufacturers. > Let's remember that OpenAI came from basically nowhere -- to give Google a run for its money -- as did Google with Microsoft's behemoth 20+ ye…
We know, minimally, from Perplexity's list above, that there exist multiple alternative DRAM manufacturers other than Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, that have completed at least some of the barriers of entry to the high-end DRAM market, and possibly many...
We also know that the world is full of capital -- as you suggest.
That capital is continually looking for investment opportunities, and DRAM is a huge, huge market...
When capital invests in markets, any barriers to entry are moved, if not outright displaced (i.e., OpenAI, $1 billion, etc.).
Point is, we don't know what the future will hold...
I think it's a good bet that cheaper DRAM, DDR5 and otherwise, will be coming down the pike soon, once production catches up, once supply outpaces demand...
Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
The allies of the US all banned Huawei because the US asked them (quite forcefully) to do so. CXMT is already under a full set of US long arm sanctions so probably only very little of their products will ever reach western markets. However some Chinese demand will definitely be met by CXMTs product displacing western suppliers - so maybe there is a tiny bit of relief for western consumers there.
Is that because CXMT is using stolen tech? Downvoting doesn't answer my question though.
No - all advanced semiconductor production in China is under an elaborate set of US sanctions regardless of company.
Re: China DRAM Maker CXMT Targets $4.2B IPO as It Takes on Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron
#120DRAM is relatively less complex to get into for those encouraged to get into semiconductor manufacturing. while there is a time and resource lag and probably a decent chunk of time before these could match the sota, here's to more competition to break the oligopoly.
it has become this due to the cyclical mania and bad margins on the troughs killing companies. hopefully this current hunger for memory make it less painful down the line.