> Nobody wants to wait for those cycles to happen in the sorts of businesses that feature most prominently on HN.
Bryce's Law: "We don't have enough time to do things right. Translation: We have plenty of time to do things wrong." Which was definitely true for YC startups, FAANGs, and the like in the ZIRP era, not so much now.
Systems development is a science, not an art. You can repeatably produce good systems by applying a proven, tested methodology. That methodology has existed since 1971 and it's called PRIDE.
> That flow works much better for "take existing business, with well defined flows, computerize it" than "people would probably get utility out of doing something like X,Y,Z, let's test some crap out."
The flows are the system. Systems development is no more concerned with computers or software than surgery is with scalpels. They are tools used to do a job. And PRIDE is suited to developing new systems as well as upgrading existing ones. The "let's test some crap out" method is exactly what PRIDE was developed to replace! As Milt Bryce put it: "do a superficial feasibility study, do some quick and dirty systems design, spend a lot of time in programming, install prematurely so you can irritate the users sooner, and then keep working on it till you get something accomplished." (https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=SoidPevZ7zs&t=47...) He also proved that PRIDE is more cost-effective!
The thing is, all Milt Bryce really did was apply some common sense and proven principles from the manufacturing world to systems development. The world settled upon mass production using interchangeable parts for a reason: it produces higher-quality goods cheaper. You would not fly in a plane with jet engines built in an ad-hoc fashion the way today's software is built. "We've got a wind tunnel, let's test some crap out and see what works, then once we have a functioning prototype, mount it on a plane that will fly hundreds of passengers." Why would a company trust an information system built in this way? It makes no sense. Jet engines are specced, designed, and built according to a rigorous repeatable procedure and so should our systems be. (https://www.modernanalyst.com/Resources/Articles/tabid/115/I...)
> Which is arguably happening in some sectors now, though the AI wave is making other sectors even more frothy than ever at the same time in the "just try shit fast!" direction.
I think the AI wave will make PRIDE more relevant, not less. Programmers who do not upskill into more of a systems analyst direction will find themselves out of a job. Remember, if you're building your systems correctly, programming is a mere translation step. It transforms human-readable specifications and requirements into instructions that can be executed by the computer. With LLMs, business managers and analysts will soon be able to express the inputs and outputs of a system or subsystem directly, in business language, and automatically get executable code! Who will need programmers then? Perhaps a very few, brilliant programmers will be necessary to develop new code that's outside the LLMs' purview, but most business systems can be assembled using common, standard tools and techniques.
Bryce's Law: "There are very few true artists in computer programming, most are just house painters."
The problem is, and always has been, that all of systems development has been gatekept by programmers for the past few decades. AI may be the thing that finally clears that logjam.