Really interesting stuff. Am I correct in thinking that if productivity were to rapidly increase in the service sector (e.g. due to AI) the same way it did in the manufacturing sector in the 19th and 20th centuries, that the cost of services would decrease? Also, a side note: I dislike a lot of the popular conversation around the Baumol effect because they’re usually along the lines of “this can’t be the only reason…
Baumol's Cost Disease
111–120 of 140 posts
Re: Baumol's Cost Disease
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
The main metrics are mean and median real income (i.e. inflation-adjusted). Baumol's only occurs if mean real income rises. Unless inequality rises simultaneously, then median real income (the metric most people care about) will rise as well.
Suppose that every single person in society receives the same compensation and has the same wealth, i.e. there is perfect equality. Society produces housing and other necessities and people consume them in some amount and then have what's left as disposable income to spend on whatever they like, e.g. for going on dates. Then a law is passed prohibiting the construction of housing with more than two stories. Building…
Baumol does not describe general inflation. It specifically describes when prices go up in some sectors because of an increase in productivity in another sector.
Baumol is also rooted in the concept of price elasticity, which in your contrived example seems not to exist.
Re: Baumol's Cost Disease
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Baumol effect says wages for doctors will also have to go up. Society can afford this because it now has commensurately more resources due to increased efficiency. It’s a tide that raises all boats, precisely because of this effect. This is why a taxi in London costs and pays better than the same service in Cairo.
> Society can afford this because it now has commensurately more resources due to increased efficiency. Does it though? Suppose that Wall St has discovered a strategy, like high frequency trading, that produces nothing but allows the one doing it to extract a margin that would otherwise have gone to the second-fastest trader. Many people are employed in a competition to be the fastest because being the fastest is rew…
Nobody with an existing job actually has to switch professions for Baumol to occur. As the pay gap widens, more kids would study finance and fewer kids would consider retail an adequate career, leading to a relative shortage of retail labor, raising retail wages.
Re: Baumol's Cost Disease
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Society can afford this because it now has commensurately more resources due to increased efficiency. Does it though? Suppose that Wall St has discovered a strategy, like high frequency trading, that produces nothing but allows the one doing it to extract a margin that would otherwise have gone to the second-fastest trader. Many people are employed in a competition to be the fastest because being the fastest is rew…
High frequency trading does create benefits. It speeds up market corrections, increases liquidity, and means buyers and sellers get quicker execution closer to consensus market value. If financiers and doctors are wealthier, they have more disposable income, some of which they will spend in retail, benefiting retail clerks. They will also get taxed more, benefiting other tax payers. The Baumol effect is sometimes des…
This is the BS that Wall St says whenever people complain about them doing it. Nobody actually benefits from getting their liquidity in 8ms instead of 8.2ms, and in fact it costs them the money the high frequency trader was making compared to having the exchange's computers do it without taking a margin for itself.
> If financiers and doctors are wealthier, they have more disposable income, some of which they will spend in retail, benefiting retail clerks.
Or they'll further outbid the people in retail on things like housing, making them poorer yet.
> They will also get taxed more, benefiting other tax payers.
Only if the other taxpayers actually get taxed less instead of the government giving the extra money to cronies.
Re: Baumol's Cost Disease
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
Suppose that every single person in society receives the same compensation and has the same wealth, i.e. there is perfect equality. Society produces housing and other necessities and people consume them in some amount and then have what's left as disposable income to spend on whatever they like, e.g. for going on dates. Then a law is passed prohibiting the construction of housing with more than two stories. Building…
How is this related to Baumol? Baumol does not describe general inflation. It specifically describes when prices go up in some sectors because of an increase in productivity in another sector . Baumol is also rooted in the concept of price elasticity, which in your contrived example seems not to exist.
Because people claim that higher costs are a result of Baumol and are hypothetically something good or normal when it's actually regulatory costs and government capture stealing from working people. "Don't worry, prices are only up because we got so much more productive, not because of artificial scarcity or because it now requires 10 people to do certain things that used to take one."
> Baumol is also rooted in the concept of price elasticity, which in your contrived example seems not to exist.
Because the example is housing, which is a necessity and therefore has fairly inelastic demand. If the price goes up, you pay it, because otherwise you're homeless. And then people buy flowers less because they can't afford it, so people lose their jobs at the flower shop, but new jobs open up in construction because it became more labor-intensive and has fairly inelastic demand.
> It specifically describes when prices go up in some sectors because of an increase in productivity in another sector.
Here's the less contrived example: Productivity improves in things like electronics or manufacturing, giving people more disposable income. But there is certain amount of disposable income people have to be left with before they'll revolt, and the increase in efficiency leaves them with more than that. Which allows the government to increase regulatory overhead or real dollars per capita collected in taxes or pass rules that artificially increase scarcity at the behest of campaign donors, without making people feel like they've lost ground.
But the efficiency improvements should have allowed them to gain ground, which is what has been taken from them.
Re: Baumol's Cost Disease
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If some sectors of the economy become drastically more efficient, and some do not, overall society has become wealthier , even if the prices in the latter sectors rise a lot. That's assuming all sectors have become more efficient. Some, like construction, have become less efficient. And that's a big problem when it's relevant to necessities like housing. Suppose people used to spend 20% of their income on housing a…
> That's assuming all sectors have become more efficient. Some, like construction, have become less efficient. And that's a big problem when it's relevant to necessities like housing. Housing prices aren't going up because of construction costs alone. The biggest increase is from the cost of land. For that the cost of a house on top has become less and less relevant. If construction became really cheap, prices would…
Which is a disaster if construction also got twice as expensive.
> If construction became really cheap, prices would still trend upwards since there's always some billionaire's money to be parked somewhere.
If construction became really cheap and there wasn't an artificial limit on how much housing you could build on a given lot then there would be tons of cheap housing and billionaires wouldn't find it a useful place to park money because it would have lower returns than competing investments.
Re: Baumol's Cost Disease
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Society can afford this because it now has commensurately more resources due to increased efficiency. Does it though? Suppose that Wall St has discovered a strategy, like high frequency trading, that produces nothing but allows the one doing it to extract a margin that would otherwise have gone to the second-fastest trader. Many people are employed in a competition to be the fastest because being the fastest is rew…
> it doesn't cause retail clerks to get paid more because Wall St isn't hiring them away from their existing jobs Nobody with an existing job actually has to switch professions for Baumol to occur. As the pay gap widens, more kids would study finance and fewer kids would consider retail an adequate career, leading to a relative shortage of retail labor, raising retail wages.
Re: Baumol's Cost Disease
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is this related to Baumol? Baumol does not describe general inflation. It specifically describes when prices go up in some sectors because of an increase in productivity in another sector . Baumol is also rooted in the concept of price elasticity, which in your contrived example seems not to exist.
> How is this related to Baumol? Because people claim that higher costs are a result of Baumol and are hypothetically something good or normal when it's actually regulatory costs and government capture stealing from working people. "Don't worry, prices are only up because we got so much more productive, not because of artificial scarcity or because it now requires 10 people to do certain things that used to take one.…
Re: Baumol's Cost Disease
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
> it doesn't cause retail clerks to get paid more because Wall St isn't hiring them away from their existing jobs Nobody with an existing job actually has to switch professions for Baumol to occur. As the pay gap widens, more kids would study finance and fewer kids would consider retail an adequate career, leading to a relative shortage of retail labor, raising retail wages.
Your premise is that the people who work in retail have the option of studying finance or medicine. Suppose they work in retail because they scored at the 20th percentile on entrance exams and couldn't get into college.
Re: Baumol's Cost Disease
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your premise is that the people who work in retail have the option of studying finance or medicine. Suppose they work in retail because they scored at the 20th percentile on entrance exams and couldn't get into college.
The 20th percentile probably wouldn't go into finance. But there's a "average" cutoff somewhere. Maybe 50th percentile. Maybe 80th. It doesn't matter. That cutoff will move if demand shifts.
Or let's even suppose that the amount isn't totally inconsequential. Say they end up with an extra $1000/year. But now they're also paying $1500/year more for medicine. They're still down $500/year.