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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#111

Post by languagehacker »

derf_ wrote: post #73
languagehacker wrote: post #54

Impressive that you have have that many assets under management and still not show a clear understanding of an industry you're prognosticating on. The author doesn't talk at all about the hardware aspect of this stuff such as the surprisingly short lifetime of the GPUs that are being rolled out at a break-neck pace. The recommendation that you take a moderate investment position and not overdo it could be shared with…

> The author doesn't talk at all about the hardware aspect of this stuff such as the surprisingly short lifetime of the GPUs that are being rolled out at a break-neck pace. There is literally a section that begins, "What will be the useful life of AI assets?" In bold.

Sure, but an informed opinion would mention that not only do these chips become obsolete quickly, but the ones that will survive long enough to become obsolete are likely to have a very fast and high failure rate.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#112

Post by tjr »

averageRoyalty wrote: post #100
stack_framer wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. Same here, and I think it's because I feel like a craftsman. I thoroughly enjoy the process of thinking deeply about what I will build, breaking down the work into related chunks, and of course writing the code itself. It's like magic when it all comes together. Sometimes I can't even beli…

So write code. Maybe post renaissance many artists no longer had patrons, but nothing was stopping them from painting. If your industry truely is going in the direction where there's no paid work for you to code (which is unlikely in my opinion), nobody is stopping you. It's easier than ever, you have decades of personal computing at your fingertips. Most people with a thing they love do it as a hobby, not a job. May…

From the GNU Manifesto:

I could answer that nobody is forced to be a programmer. Most of us cannot manage to get any money for standing on the street and making faces. But we are not, as a result, condemned to spend our lives standing on the street making faces, and starving. We do something else.

https://www.gnu.org/gnu/manifesto.en.html

Re: Is it a bubble?

#113

Post by macrolime »

shakna wrote: post #74
esafak wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do. Where did you get this? All the providers have clauses like this: "4.1. Generally. Customer and Customer’s End Users may provide Input and receive Output. As between Customer and OpenAI, to the extent permitted by applicable law, Customer: (a) retains all ownership rights in Input; and (b) owns all Output. OpenAI hereby assigns to Customer all OpenAI’s right, title, and interest, if any, in and to Output." h…

The outputs of AI are most likely in the public domain. As automated process output are public domain, and the companies claim fair use when scraping, making the input unencumbered, too. It wouldn't be OpenAI holding copyright - it would be no one holding copyright.

So you're saying machine code is public domain if it's compiled from C? If not, why would AI generated code be any different?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#114

Post by whoknowsidont »

NewsaHackO wrote: post #108
whoknowsidont wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you feel like I'm underestimating the # of people not doing advanced programming?

Theoretically, if AI can do 80-90% of programming jobs (the ones not in the "advanced" group), that would be an unequivocal +1 for AI.

I think you're crossing some threads here.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#115

Post by NewsaHackO »

whoknowsidont wrote: post #114
NewsaHackO wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically, if AI can do 80-90% of programming jobs (the ones not in the "advanced" group), that would be an unequivocal +1 for AI.

I think you're crossing some threads here.

"It's not. And if your team is doing this you're not "advanced." Lots of people are outing themselves these days about the complexity of their jobs, or lack thereof.

Which is great! But it's not a +1 for AI, it's a -1 for them.

" Is you, right?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#116

Post by tapoxi »

macrolime wrote: post #113
shakna wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The outputs of AI are most likely in the public domain. As automated process output are public domain, and the companies claim fair use when scraping, making the input unencumbered, too. It wouldn't be OpenAI holding copyright - it would be no one holding copyright.

So you're saying machine code is public domain if it's compiled from C? If not, why would AI generated code be any different?

Monkey Selfie case, setting the stage for an automated process is not enough to declare copyright over a work.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#117

Post by fhd2 »

macrolime wrote: post #113
shakna wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The outputs of AI are most likely in the public domain. As automated process output are public domain, and the companies claim fair use when scraping, making the input unencumbered, too. It wouldn't be OpenAI holding copyright - it would be no one holding copyright.

So you're saying machine code is public domain if it's compiled from C? If not, why would AI generated code be any different?

That would be considered a derivative work of the C code, therefore copyright protected, I believe.

Can you replay all of your prompts exactly the way you wrote them and get the same behaviour out of the LLM generated code? In that case, the situation might be similar. If you're prodding an LLM to give you a variety of resu

But significantly editing LLM generated code _should_ make it your copyright again, I believe. Hard to say when this hasn't really been tested in the courts yet, to my knowledge.

The most interesting question, to me, is who cares? If we reach a point where highly valuable software is largely vibe coded, what do I get out of a lack of copyright protection? I could likely write down the behaviour of the system and generate a fairly similar one. And how would I even be able to tell, without insider knowledge, what percentage of a code base is generated?

There are some interesting abuses of copyright law that would become more vulnerable. I was once involved in a case where the court decided that hiding a website's "disable your ad blocker or leave" popup was actually a case of "circumventing effective copyright protection". In this day and age, they might have had to produce proof that it was, indeed, copyright protected.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#118

Post by whoknowsidont »

NewsaHackO wrote: post #115
whoknowsidont wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're crossing some threads here.

"It's not. And if your team is doing this you're not "advanced." Lots of people are outing themselves these days about the complexity of their jobs, or lack thereof. Which is great! But it's not a +1 for AI, it's a -1 for them. " Is you, right?

Yes. You can see my name on the post.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#119

Post by rvz »

Retr0id wrote: post #99
rvz wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is like telling others who experience natural disasters to wait until it happens and then ask themselves "How much damage will it bring" and then someone else tells them that it costed them everything. Anyone who has lived through the dotcom bubble knows that this AI mania is a obvious bubble and the whole point is you have to prepare before it eventually pops, not after someone tells you that it is too late whe…

You don't prepare by making predictions about when it will pop, you prepare by hedging etc. Just as those who live in earthquake-prone areas build earthquake-resistant buildings.

> you prepare by hedging etc.

Has to be done before the eventual collapse of the bubble and still proves my whole point:

>> the whole point is you have to prepare before it eventually pops.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#120

Post by n8cpdx »

formerly_proven wrote: post #96
n8cpdx wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Including how it looks at the surrounding code and patterns. Citation needed. Even with specific examples, “follow the patterns from the existing tests”, etc copilot (gpt 5) still insists on generating tests using the wrong methods (“describe” and “it” in a codebase that uses “suite” and “test”). An intern, even an intern with a severe cognitive disability, would not be so bad at pattern following.

Do you think smart companies seeking to leverage AI effectively in their engineering orgs are using the 20$ slopify subscription from Microsoft? You get what you pay for.

Every time a new model or tool comes out, the AI boosters love to say that n-1 was garbage and finally AI vibecoding is the real deal and it will make you 10x more productive.

Except six months ago n-1 was n and the boosters were busy ruining their credibility saying that their garbage tier AI was world class and making them 10x more productive.

Today’s leading world-class agentic model is tomorrow’s horrible garbage tier slop generator that was patently never good enough to be taken seriously.

This has been going on for years, the pattern is obvious and undeniable.

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