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Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

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Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#111

Post by freetime2 »

cedws wrote: post #99
intunderflow wrote: post #29

Was in a hotel in Sapporo, almost got thrown out of bed. Lot of people in the hotel lobby now. Considering leaving Hokkaido by air if a Hokkaido and Sanriku Subsequent Earthquake Advisory is issued, don't really want to be in a potential megaquake.

People were freaking about the July megaquake prophecy and nothing happened. Trying to time it is silly, just chill and enjoy your stay, you'll probably be fine.

This is different than the July megaquake prophecy, which was indeed dumb. With a strong quake like this there will be aftershocks. Most will be small, but there is a risk (about 5% according to the USGS) of an even stronger quake than the first within the next week or so [1].

I agree the parent will likely be fine, but it can be stressful in the aftermath of a large quake. And if they want to leave the area and have the opportunity to do so calmly and safely, I think that’s justified.

[1] https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-fore...

Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#112

Post by eej71 »

qwertox wrote: post #58

Today I got served this video " Earthquake and Liquefaction his Urayasu, Chiba 3/11/2011 " [0], which is from the earthquake which caused the huge tsunami in Japan. I have rarely seen something as scary as this. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGblnPeOXJg

Oddly enough, the YouTube recommendation engine served that one up to me too.

Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#113

Post by traceroute66 »

Medox wrote: post #87
qwertox wrote: post #58

Today I got served this video " Earthquake and Liquefaction his Urayasu, Chiba 3/11/2011 " [0], which is from the earthquake which caused the huge tsunami in Japan. I have rarely seen something as scary as this. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGblnPeOXJg

Terrifying. I know that Japan is earthquake-proofing its architecture but how about the underground infra? Do they have to dig and redo the pipes? The cables seem to be mostly overground (at least in this video) and are probably easier to repair (oldschool infra ftw).

> The cables seem to be mostly overground (at least in this video) and are probably easier to repair (oldschool infra ftw).

In Japan cables are (still) mostly overground. Use of underground is still a relatively new topic as addressed by the TEPCO website[1]. The first footer on the bottom of that page provides a nice TL;DR of the state of play:

     The plans for underground conversion have consisted of "Plan for Underground Conversion of Power Lines", which covered three terms from FY 1986 to FY 1998, followed by the "New Plan for Underground Conversion of Power Lines" from FY 1999 to FY 2003, and then the "Plan for the Removal of Utility Poles" from FY 2004 to FY 2008. Based on these plans, approximately 7,700 km of lines all across Japan were placed underground over 23 years by the end of FY 2008 (with TEPCO responsible for approximately 3,500 km).
     Currently, we are consulting with related personnel regarding items such as locations for conversion as based on the new "Guidelines for the Removal of Utility Poles" established in FY 2009.
[1] https://www.tepco.co.jp/en/hd/about/facilities/distribution-...

Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#114

Post by kulahan »

freetime2 wrote: post #111
cedws wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People were freaking about the July megaquake prophecy and nothing happened. Trying to time it is silly, just chill and enjoy your stay, you'll probably be fine.

This is different than the July megaquake prophecy, which was indeed dumb. With a strong quake like this there will be aftershocks. Most will be small, but there is a risk (about 5% according to the USGS) of an even stronger quake than the first within the next week or so [1]. I agree the parent will likely be fine, but it can be stressful in the aftermath of a large quake. And if they want to leave the area and have…

Why was the July megaquake, an 8.8 magnitude, a dumb prophecy, but this "strong quake" at a magnitude of 7.6 is a smart prophecy?

Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#115

Post by traceroute66 »

rishikeshs wrote: post #92
akg_67 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck, the Sapporo Chitose airport is closed for inspection of both runways. BTW, you are safer in hotel than outside. No need to stay in lobby, go to bed, just protect your head. I experienced much bigger one in Sapporo in 2018.

I’m curious, how is it more safer inside a building than being outside?

Japan has had earthquakes forever. Their building regulations mandate things like isolation and dampers.

It all stems from an earthquake in 1923 in Yokohama which killed 140,000. Since then Japan's has over time developed some of the strictest seismic standards.

Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#116

Post by traceroute66 »

jasonvorhe wrote: post #95
rishikeshs wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m curious, how is it more safer inside a building than being outside?

Modern buildings like hotels are built to withstand earthquakes of some magnitudes. Wouldn't count on that at a local construction site or a worn down house you might pass on the street.

> worn down house you might pass on the street.

That "worn down house" might be good until "upper 6". Beyond that it all depends on when it was built and the associated construction standards at the time.

Source: https://isec-society.org/ISEC_PRESS/ASEA_SEC_03/pdf/St-5_v5_...

Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#117

Post by freetime2 »

kulahan wrote: post #114
freetime2 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is different than the July megaquake prophecy, which was indeed dumb. With a strong quake like this there will be aftershocks. Most will be small, but there is a risk (about 5% according to the USGS) of an even stronger quake than the first within the next week or so [1]. I agree the parent will likely be fine, but it can be stressful in the aftermath of a large quake. And if they want to leave the area and have…

Why was the July megaquake, an 8.8 magnitude, a dumb prophecy, but this "strong quake" at a magnitude of 7.6 is a smart prophecy?

This isn’t something that I personally wish to debate, but I’ll leave link to the wikipedia page for the July 2025 prophecy [1] for anyone who may not know what we are talking about.

And also point out that last night’s earthquake in Northern Japan was not a “prophecy”. Just a regular, large earthquake - which do occur pretty frequently in Japan. And I say "large" not just because of the magnitude, but because parts of Aomori experienced 6+ shaking on the shindo scale [2] which is categorized as "brutal" [3].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prop...

[2] https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eve...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_se...

Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#118

Post by scottlamb »

kulahan wrote: post #114
freetime2 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is different than the July megaquake prophecy, which was indeed dumb. With a strong quake like this there will be aftershocks. Most will be small, but there is a risk (about 5% according to the USGS) of an even stronger quake than the first within the next week or so [1]. I agree the parent will likely be fine, but it can be stressful in the aftermath of a large quake. And if they want to leave the area and have…

Why was the July megaquake, an 8.8 magnitude, a dumb prophecy, but this "strong quake" at a magnitude of 7.6 is a smart prophecy?

Strange question.

The July megaquake prophecy scare was dumb because it originated in a work of fiction, not intended to be taken seriously by its author and not based on any scientific evidence. If the "prophecy" had come true, it'd be by luck alone. fwiw, I'd say it didn't come true; the 8.8 magnitude earthquake was near Kamchatka and didn't actually damage Japan, though a tsunami seemed plausible enough that there was a precautionary evacuation.

This "strong quake" is a thing that happened, not a "smart prophecy" [1]. Talk of aftershocks is not a prophecy either; it's a common-sense prediction consistent with observations from many previous earthquakes.

[1] smart prophecy is an oxymoron. A prediction is either based on scientific evidence (not a prophecy) or a (dumb) prophecy.

Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#119

Post by pcl »

akg_67 wrote: post #60
intunderflow wrote: post #29

Was in a hotel in Sapporo, almost got thrown out of bed. Lot of people in the hotel lobby now. Considering leaving Hokkaido by air if a Hokkaido and Sanriku Subsequent Earthquake Advisory is issued, don't really want to be in a potential megaquake.

Good luck, the Sapporo Chitose airport is closed for inspection of both runways. BTW, you are safer in hotel than outside. No need to stay in lobby, go to bed, just protect your head. I experienced much bigger one in Sapporo in 2018.

When I moved to SF, someone told me that the three most important things you can do for earthquake safety are:

- make sure nothing can fall on you when you're in bed (no mounted artwork above the headboard; no lamps etc on side tables that are high enough to fall on you)

- make sure you have footwear in your bedroom, so you can be mobile if there's broken glass everywhere

- store extra drinking water somewhere (I used a 6-gallon carboy that I periodically refilled)

Probably there are other good things to do, but all those made a lot of sense to me. Most of us spend more time in bed than in any other fixed location, so making sure the bed is a safe place rings true. And water is life.

Re: Strong earthquake hits northern Japan, tsunami warning issued

#120

Post by throwawaylaptop »

mikestorrent wrote: post #69
throwawaylaptop wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

99% of your problem can be solved by studying statistics for your area, and having a plan... So that you aren't just at the whims of the moment when it's actually happening.

What kinds of statistics is it that one should study? Having a bugout bag and emergency supplies and water on hand is a reasonable idea everyone with the means ought to do; it's a good thing to not have to depend on gov't intervention (not because of a lack of trust, but because the general public will, and the potential for mob situations is high). But what should I have read about to know what to do? Topological ma…

Op seemed to be freaked out about unknowns.

So my solution would be to look at historical data for earth quakes in his area so he knows basically what to expect.. that way when it starts shaking, he doesn't think "omg how big will this be?" And instead can know "ok this will be between 2.9 and 3.5 like the last 500 quakes in this area for 50+ years. Thank God no one has ever died in this area from an earthquake"

And then he can also know that he is prepared for even a much bigger quake in his area before... Because he prepared something.

This is obvious stuff. In case the guy I wrote to didn't know, now he does. If he wants to dwell in his neuroticism he can.

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