Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

jamanetwork.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

111–120 of 360 posts

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#111

Post by gus_massa »

exceptthisthing wrote: post #45
hannob wrote: post #31

I found the intro very confusing, tbh. Particularly the "no increased risk of all-cause mortality". I mean, if we assume the vaccines worked, we'd certainly expect a decreased risk of all-case mortality (because "all-case mortality" certainly includes "covid mortality"). Reading "no increase" seems to imply "it doesn't change anything". Yeah, technically, the sentence does not say that ("no increase" can mean "no dec…

Because this whole paper is bullshit and is a bias confirmation report It assesses persons "who were alive on November 1, 2021" That tantamount to saying "for people alive January 1st 1950, the Second World War was not a significant cause of mortality" Can you see how ridiculous that sounds?

It's a good observation, but I expect that even considering only people alive in 1950, survivors of the Hiroshima bombing or concentration camps (or a few other events), still have long term problems that increase mortality.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#112

Post by doctorpangloss »

andreygrehov wrote: post #88
wnevets wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RFK Jr's FDA is imposing stricter vaccine protocols due to children deaths linked to Covid-19 vaccine-related myocarditis.

Are they lying about the deaths? I'm not following.

Haha, who has claimed more victims, vaccines or Dunning-Kruger?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#113

Post by majormajor »

ekianjo wrote: post #75
Palomides wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

doing a double blind study of a vaccine that seems to work very well for a potentially lethal disease seems morally questionable

> seems to work very well for a potentially lethal disease not lethal for all age groups, we already knew it well before the vaccine was introduced. People may have short memories, the vaccine came almost a year after the disease was out, and we knew very well by then that it did not kill everyone, broadly.

> not lethal for all age groups, we already knew it well before the vaccine was introduced. People may have short memories, the vaccine came almost a year after the disease was out, and we knew very well by then that it did not kill everyone, broadly.

And the vaccine wasn't trialed or rolled out initially for all age groups. One major reason was because double-blind trials were done first.

For instance, here is the enrollment page for a double-blind study from 2020 for those between 18-55: https://studypages.com/s/join-a-covid-19-vaccine-research-st...

This one was was 18-59: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04582344 with two cohorts: "The first cohort will be healthcare workers in the high risk group (K-1) and the second cohort will be people at normal risk (K-2)"

If you look at case rates, hospitalization load, and death rates for summer/fall/winter 2020 pre-vaccine, and compare to the load on the system in summer-2021 and later when people were far more social and active, the economy was starting to recover, then the efficacy of the vaccine was pretty obvious in letting people get out of lockdown without killing hugely more people and overwhelming the healthcare system. And it was tested pre-rollout in double-blind fashion and rolled out in a phased way to the most needy groups first, with monitoring and study of those groups.

What, concretely, are you proposing should have been done differently?

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#115

Post by ceejayoz »

purpleflame1257 wrote: post #108
hannob wrote: post #31

I found the intro very confusing, tbh. Particularly the "no increased risk of all-cause mortality". I mean, if we assume the vaccines worked, we'd certainly expect a decreased risk of all-case mortality (because "all-case mortality" certainly includes "covid mortality"). Reading "no increase" seems to imply "it doesn't change anything". Yeah, technically, the sentence does not say that ("no increase" can mean "no dec…

It's interesting that they leave things at 18-59. Do they later stratify into 18-28, 29-38, 39-48, 48-58?

Looks like they do, yes.

> A stronger association was observed among individuals aged 18 to 29 years, although the underlying reasons remain unclear and warrant further investigation.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#117

Post by [deleted] »

Palomides wrote: post #52
laichzeit0 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, this is an observational study and when you get to the confounding part, they kind of shrug their shoulders and say “well, we included a bunch of covariates that should reduce make the bias go away”, but there’s no causal diagram so we have no idea how they reasoned about this. If you’ve read even something layman friendly like Pearl’s Book of Why you should be feeling nervous about this.

doing a double blind study of a vaccine that seems to work very well for a potentially lethal disease seems morally questionable

[deleted]

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#118

Post by sp4cec0wb0y »

dalbaugh wrote: post #5

Unfortunately, I don't think any additional evidence will convince vaccine skeptics of the safety of mRNA vaccines

"Skeptics" is a very kind term for these people. I bet my life if you polled these people, they have not read any material on the matter.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#119

Post by gus_massa »

jchw wrote: post #13
dalbaugh wrote: post #5

Unfortunately, I don't think any additional evidence will convince vaccine skeptics of the safety of mRNA vaccines

Personally, I am glad to see it. I definitely got vaccinated as soon as I could, but I was also still nervous as there did seem to be some level of reasonable doubt. I would be happy to see more studies confirm what many consider to be obvious.

It's not obvious at all. Many vaccine candidates about previous covirus were rejected because they didn't pass the safetly trial.

The "secret" part is that before aproving the vaccine, it has to pass a few trials to prove it's effective and safe.

This is discussed too few times.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#120

Post by dwroberts »

exceptthisthing wrote: post #45
hannob wrote: post #31

I found the intro very confusing, tbh. Particularly the "no increased risk of all-cause mortality". I mean, if we assume the vaccines worked, we'd certainly expect a decreased risk of all-case mortality (because "all-case mortality" certainly includes "covid mortality"). Reading "no increase" seems to imply "it doesn't change anything". Yeah, technically, the sentence does not say that ("no increase" can mean "no dec…

Because this whole paper is bullshit and is a bias confirmation report It assesses persons "who were alive on November 1, 2021" That tantamount to saying "for people alive January 1st 1950, the Second World War was not a significant cause of mortality" Can you see how ridiculous that sounds?

> That tantamount to saying "for people alive January 1st 1950, the Second World War was not a significant cause of mortality"

That’s a nonsense comparison because the thing they are studying is the vaccine, not COVID itself. The vaccine was available at minimum, what, end of 2020? Exposure being defined as first dose May-October 2021 does not seem unreasonable at all (and probably not arbitrarily chosen right - it’s probably something to do with the availability of data)

Post reply on HN