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Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

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Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#111
post #28

Just because something is expensive doesn’t mean you should short it via puts as Burry had done. Both Palantir and Nvidia have high IVs. You’re paying for that. You’re much better off looking for cheaper puts on securities with enough correlation. Since Volmageddon and pandemic craze, deep OTM options have been scalped to death. Rarely good value. Nvidia also didn’t report earnings yet which means you’re paying for t…

Much simpler: I sat on an option desk for years, and whenever someone had a directional thought, the quip was "why don't you just buy/sell it then?"

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. General handwavy statements like "there's a bubble" aren't worth paying attention to. Ones with specific timelines attached to it (like the one above, or the article we're commenting on), are worth listening to a bit more, but unless they have the funds to back it up (like Michael Burry has put down here), it's still hot air.

> Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. Is there someone with a better record then?

Recessions can be avoided if you know about them ahead of time, so if you ever successfully predicted one your central bank isn't good enough.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. General handwavy statements like "there's a bubble" aren't worth paying attention to. Ones with specific timelines attached to it (like the one above, or the article we're commenting on), are worth listening to a bit more, but unless they have the funds to back it up (like Michael Burry has put down here), it's still hot air.

It seems like the economy is on a “K” shaped flywheel. How much worse can the economy get for the regular worker before the systems just pops? We’ve put so much speculation into an AI/tech salvation that seems premature, especially when you look at ROI vs depreciation timelines. I’m not sure what timeline to place on that but there has to be a floor for how bad it can get for the regular man. Shit is just expensive.…

Graph looks like it's going up to me.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#114
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not usually a good idea if you're not a skilled investor, but here's a place to start: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.a...

thanks! is my understanding right? I make a PUT option on a stock for a price. This price is usually lower than the current market price of the stock. 1.When I do that, the premium amount is to be paid by me when i make the PUT option or I get paid while making the PUT option. 2. Do I have to pay upfront money before hand, while making the PUT option? 3. Is there a deadline for my PUT option. For example, if it doesn…

You buy an option that has a particular cost, which gives you the right to sell stock at a specific price in the future (the "strike price"), within a certain time frame. Typically, these are denominated so that you contract to buy or sell 100 shares. In a "naked" put, you don't actually have the stock that you propose to sell. In the future, you plan to "exercise" the option by buying the stock at the market price. and then immediately sell it at the contracted price.

A put option represents a belief that the price will fall, which makes "right to sell the stock" valuable. Similarly, a call option represents a belief that the price will rise. Both can be bought and sold; you do not "make" them but rather trade in them, just as you would in stock. But the relationship between the stock price and the result from an option is not linear; selling a put and buying a call are both nominally "long" the stock, but are not equivalent.[0]

When you buy an option, you are always immediately out for the cost of the option itself (the "premium"). This is separate from the strike price. It's the market's assessment of how much your "right to sell later" is worth, in itself. By doing this, you are speculating that you can recover that money later, based on how the stock performs. (Depending on your strategy, this can involve buying or short-selling the "underlying" stock, as well as other options.)

So if you buy a put, you pay money (the premium) up front, and you potentially just lose that money completely. Sane options strategies take your entire portfolio into account, and use options to hedge the risk profile of the rest of the profile (rather than trying to use the rest of the profile to justify taking on risk using options).

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Some details, and further exploration.

Options represent essentially zero-sum speculation on top of the actual price movement. For example, holding everything else constant, a call option increases in value as the price of the underlying increases (the right to buy stock at a fixed price becomes worth more, when the stock is worth more). When a company does well, everyone who holds the actual stock shares in the company's good fortune; but the profit of call holders comes at the expense of those who sold (or "wrote") those calls.

The option is priced according to market expectations of risk (how likely is it that the stock's price will fall below the chosen mark?), and according to duration (the longer you reserve the right to exercise the option, the more likely it is that you'll get a profitable opportunity; therefore, the more valuable and thus expensive the option is). For long-term options (especially now that interest rates are non-trivial) there's a second meaningful duration factor: buying an option comes with the opportunity cost of not holding cash (or treasury bonds) for that period, and that also has to be priced in.

"American" options give you the right to exercise at any point before the deadline; "European" options only allow you to exercise at the deadline. This is also priced in; having more flexibility is worth more.

If you have chosen well, the market price for the stock goes down by a lot. This allows you to profit when you exercise the option.

If you have chosen poorly, you never get the opportunity to profit. Your options "expire worthless"; an option to sell at a point that has already passed has no value. You have been left holding the bag.

In between, you might exercise in a way that recovers only part of the premium you paid.

Much riskier is to sell options against securities you don't hold. (You will likely be legally barred from attempting this at all, and even wealthy experienced traders will be required to hold some percentage of the security value that their options represent.) You are hoping that the option expires worthless, so that you simply claim its value uninhibited. If it doesn't, you may be "assigned" i.e. legally on the hook for someone else's exercise of the option. If you sold a put, you may be forced to pay an inflated price for a stock that crashed. If you sold a call, you may be forced to acquire stock in order to sell it at a discount in order to fulfill your option. The potential loss for selling a put typically far exceeds the maximum potential profit; the potential loss for selling a naked call is unlimited (as we suppose the stock's value can go to infinity).

But if your sale of a call is "covered", or your sale of a put is "cash secured", this means you fully own the security (underlying stock, or liquid assets respectively) corresponding to the option. The cash secured put still incurs the risk of wiping out your entire cash supply, much as if you'd simply bought 100 shares directly, and it puts a hard limit on your upside. But it lets you profit from the stock without actually holding it.

Given sensibly chosen strike prices, covered calls actually end up with a similar risk/benefit profile. As the stock goes to zero, all you end up with is the option premium, because you were holding the stock. If the stock does well, your net profit is limited to the option premium, because the profit from holding the stock cancels out the liability of the option. (Equivalently: you are required to sell the stock at the strike price, but you already have that stock; no matter how high the underlying stock value gets, you can only claim the strike price.)

[0]: Doing both gives risk exposure roughly equivalent to holding the stock, without actually buying it. This is called a "synthetic long". As you can imagine, that is effectively unlimited leverage in itself, and if you attempt it you will be required to hold a significant amount of cash to limit your leverage, and jump through a lot of regulatory hoops to prove both your competence and solvency. I didn't mention this at the start, because you need the details to understand it.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#115
post #5

The market will correct before mid-terms next year. This is almost a certainty. By how much and when exactly - now, that's where the shorting profits are. PS. Burry infamously made several more bets after the "big short", bets that misfired. That is, his record is far from being 100% right.

Will it be another "correction" where it pulls back ~10% before going up another 15%? The powers that be have too much invested in the market continuing to move up, you are basically betting that Trump, a bunch of billionaires and the FED are going to let the market crash to curb inflation and income inequality. That feels like a bad bet to me.

There isn't a "the market".

The stock market isn't that important (though Trump does care about it). It's the bond market that everyone pays attention to when it stops working.

In a sense, stock market crashes are good for young people because you can buy stocks cheaper. In practice this isn't true because too many people are in debt and you get a balance sheet recession.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#116
post #28

Just because something is expensive doesn’t mean you should short it via puts as Burry had done. Both Palantir and Nvidia have high IVs. You’re paying for that. You’re much better off looking for cheaper puts on securities with enough correlation. Since Volmageddon and pandemic craze, deep OTM options have been scalped to death. Rarely good value. Nvidia also didn’t report earnings yet which means you’re paying for t…

> high IVs. You’re paying for that. Glad to see someone say it. A lot of people have a hypothesis about the market, but fail to do the follow through to see if the market has already priced that in . The real aim should be to see when your model (mental or mathematical) prices things differently than the market. In this case, it's actually quite reasonable to believe that the market has over priced the risk no matter…

With options, the market has nearly always priced in the obvious risk. But not the non-obvious risk. Burry is not just saying, “I think these companies are overvalued.” Rather, he’s saying, “I think the bubble is about ready to pop.” While many people see the bubble, Burry is making a bet on the timing of the pop.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#117

Hasn’t he been incorrectly predicting massive crashes every few years ever since he was right that one time? How many bad predictions does he need to make before people stop caring what he has to say?

Yep. A lot of these guys who have made a profit during 2008 are still chasing that dragon.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. Is there someone with a better record then?

Recessions can be avoided if you know about them ahead of time, so if you ever successfully predicted one your central bank isn't good enough.

Intervening as if there were a recession inminent when it is not also has harms (the exact same as the harms when recession interventions are maintained too long or employed too intensely, in terms of inflation, etc.), so I wouldn't agree that your central bank is bad if you happened to have guessed right once, but only if you have a demonstrably accurate objective method.
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