Anyone else feel like we're cresting the LLM coding hype curve? Like a recognition that there's value there, but we're passing the frothing-at-the-mouth stage of replacing all software engineers?
I've been skeptical about LLMs being able to replace humans in their current state (which has gotten marginally better in the last 18 months), but let us not forget that GPT-3.5 (the first truly useful LLM) was only 3 years ago. We aren't even 10 years out from the initial papers about GPTs.
I'm sure there's still some improvements that can be made to the current LLMs, but most of those improvements are not in making the models actually better at getting the things they generate right.
If we want more significant improvements in what generative AI can do, we're going to need new breakthroughs in theory or technique, and that's not going to come by simply iterating on the transformers paper or throwing more compute at it. Breakthroughs, almost by definition, aren't predictable, either in when or whether they will come.