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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

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Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#111

Post by mkl »

yeasku wrote: post #74
rhetocj23 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But google and amazon were obvious to those in the know, in terms of what they delivered. S Jobs called it back in 1995-97 - he referred to it as shopping for information and shopping for good and services. Nobody has this crystal clear, tangible vision re. LLMs. Nobody at all. That is a big problem. I found the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqSfFcaluHc&t=1700s

Personally I never tougth of Google as a dotcom era company. Most of those were landing pages with news and chat rooms. It was more of web 2.0 company.

It was founded 1998, very much dotcom era, and had no significant web 2.0 products for years after that.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#114

Post by ecommerceguy »

zerosizedweasle wrote: post #51
hx8 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of the infrastructure made during the Dotcom boom was shortly discarded. How many dial-up modems were sold in the 90s? The current AI bubble is leading to trained models that won't be feasible to retrain for a decade or longer after the bubble bursts.

The wealth the Dotcom boom left behind wasn't in dial up modems or internet over the telephone, it was in the huge amounts of high speed fiber optic networks that were laid down. I think a lot of that infrastructure is still in use today, fiber optic cables can last 30 years or more.

How much of it is still dark?

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#116

Post by wslh »

blast wrote: post #29

He's (unsurprisingly) making an analogy to the dotcom bubble, which seems to me correct. There was a bubble, many non-viable companies got funded and died, and nevertheless the internet did eventually change everything.

I would add more metrics to think about. For example, very few people used Internet in the dotcom era while now the AI use is distributed into all the population using the Internet that will probably not growth too much. In this case, if Internet population is the driver, and it will not growth significantly we are redistributing the attention. Assuming "all" society will be more productive we will all be in the same train at the relatively same speed.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#117

Post by yeasku »

mkl wrote: post #111
yeasku wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I never tougth of Google as a dotcom era company. Most of those were landing pages with news and chat rooms. It was more of web 2.0 company.

It was founded 1998, very much dotcom era, and had no significant web 2.0 products for years after that.

And the term 2.0 was coined in 1999.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#118

Post by actionfromafar »

donmcronald wrote: post #108
zerosizedweasle wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest problem is the infrastructure left behind from the Dotcom boom that laid the path for the current world (the high speed fiber) doesn't translate to computer chips. Are you still using intel chips from 1998? And the chips are such a huge cost, and being backed by debt but they depreciate in value exponentially. It's not the same because so much of the current debt fueled spending is on an asset that has ve…

And a lot of the gains from the Dotcom boom are being paid back in negative value for the average person at this point. We have automated systems that waste our time when we need support, product features that should have a one-time-cost being turned into subscriptions, a complete usurping of the ability to distribute software or build compatible replacements, etc.. The Dotcom boom was probably good for everyone in s…

Don’t say that, you’ll hasten the Antichrist!

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#119

Post by thewebguyd »

Loughla wrote: post #66
danielbln wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Claude, make sure to sprinkle at least one typo in here. And no em dashes you hear?"

Faculty at the college I work for are kicking and screaming about AI and students using AI. They don't want to use new tools so they're just trying to outright ban students from using them. One smug English faculty said, "well it's not that hard. You just look for dashes in their writing." I responded with, "you know you can just tell it not to use those, right?" Blank stares. I hate it.

It's sad. I use dashes in my writing all the time. I've had to consciously pause and make an effort not to use them in my emails now.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#120

Post by [deleted] »

zerosizedweasle wrote: post #36
blast wrote: post #29

He's (unsurprisingly) making an analogy to the dotcom bubble, which seems to me correct. There was a bubble, many non-viable companies got funded and died, and nevertheless the internet did eventually change everything.

The biggest problem is the infrastructure left behind from the Dotcom boom that laid the path for the current world (the high speed fiber) doesn't translate to computer chips. Are you still using intel chips from 1998? And the chips are such a huge cost, and being backed by debt but they depreciate in value exponentially. It's not the same because so much of the current debt fueled spending is on an asset that has ve…

[deleted]
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