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Gold hits all time high

goldprice.org

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Re: Gold hits all time high

#111

Post by throw0101c »

jack_h wrote: post #94
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fiat money is not going down as much as asset prices are going up, though. So it's part of the story, money losing value in the real economy. That's been happening since moving off the gold standard at roughly similar rates. There's something that happened during ZIRP & Negative Real Interest Rate Policies that completely divorced the value of money in the real economy from the value of assets & future cash flows, an…

> There's something that happened during ZIRP & Negative Real Interest Rate Policies that completely divorced the value of money in the real economy from the value of assets & future cash flows I’m not sure I follow. The USD is just a medium of exchange. 100% of the dollars commands 100% of the wealth of the economy. If you increase the number of dollars but the size of the economy itself doesn’t increase then the un…

> If you increase the number of dollars but the size of the economy itself doesn’t increase then the underlying prices would go up and the value of individual dollars would go down.

Just looking the number of dollars, without looking at what they're doing, is like thinking you will gain weight because your fridge/pantry is stocked:

> But also – why do so many people insist that inflation is an increase in the money supply? This makes zero sense. Here’s why – our economy is mostly a credit based economy. So, if I take out a loan for $100,000 then the money supply has technically increased by $100,000. But what if I don’t actually tap that loan? What if I borrow the money because, for instance, house prices just went up 25% and I want to have some cash around for emergencies? This doesn’t tell us anything about prices, living standards or really anything. But this is what so much of the money supply represents – money that has been issued and is just sitting around unused. Why is this useful? It’s like calculating your weight changes by counting how much food you have in your refrigerator. No. That’s potential calories consumed and potential weight gain. The amount of food in your fridge tells you little about your future weight changes just like the amount of money in the economy tells us little about the actual price changes in the economy.

* https://www.pragcap.com/three-things-i-think-i-think-i-see-d...

Japan had an ever increasing money supply for decades and experience not just low inflation, but at times deflation:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1680i

See also US:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1MG9e

Besides the quantity of money, you have to actually look at what the money is doing (velocity), which in recent years is 'not much':

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

As it stands there's just a growing pile of US money doing a whole lot of nothing in money market funds:

* https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/12/7-trillion-cash-money-market...

* https://www.apolloacademy.com/6-trillion-on-the-sidelines-in...

Re: Gold hits all time high

#112

Post by ajross »

vladimirralev wrote: post #110
ajross wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, that's all just conspiracy nonsense. Yes, there are old laws. No, they don't effect macroeconomic policy and to claim they do is silly. This is of a piece with the Trillion Dollar Coin nonsense[1] being hawked in equally silly circles on the other side of the aisle. Real world economic policy works by virtue of steady hands and rigorously applied norms, not goofball trickery around edge cases of ancient laws.…

Yes you are making my point exactly, I just gave you a link to the official federal reserve website that values gold at $42 and you still refer to it as a conspiracy theory. Surely they could have fixed this by now if it was a typo or a conspiracy. The fact they they kept the price fixed should serve as a reminder they can do this at any time. There is no conspiracy theory, they've literally done this and nobody chal…

Citing the completely-unused ancient law in support of a claim that the fed is somehow "fixing prices" or "making outrageous course corrections overnight" or that they can "make another law any time they want" is the conspiracy. They aren't doing that. And they never have. And you know it. Which is why you're making noise about ancient unused laws.

We're done, this will be my last comment.

Re: Gold hits all time high

#113

Post by jack_h »

rayiner wrote: post #97
jack_h wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's something that happened during ZIRP & Negative Real Interest Rate Policies that completely divorced the value of money in the real economy from the value of assets & future cash flows I’m not sure I follow. The USD is just a medium of exchange. 100% of the dollars commands 100% of the wealth of the economy. If you increase the number of dollars but the size of the economy itself doesn’t increase then the un…

That’s not accurate for two reasons. First, the dollar isn’t just a medium of exchange, but a medium for storing value since it’s the reserve currency. Second, a dollar can get spent multiple times so there isn’t a direct relationship with the amount of economic activity as you suggest.

I don’t disagree with your first point, but your second point may have been a misunderstanding of what I said or I don’t understand what you’re saying. I’m not suggesting when you spend money it goes away and can’t be used again. I was more suggesting the M0/M1/M2 money supplies change in size which is distinct from GDP size, although I admit that is a simplification.

Re: Gold hits all time high

#114

Post by jack_h »

throw0101c wrote: post #111
jack_h wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's something that happened during ZIRP & Negative Real Interest Rate Policies that completely divorced the value of money in the real economy from the value of assets & future cash flows I’m not sure I follow. The USD is just a medium of exchange. 100% of the dollars commands 100% of the wealth of the economy. If you increase the number of dollars but the size of the economy itself doesn’t increase then the un…

> If you increase the number of dollars but the size of the economy itself doesn’t increase then the underlying prices would go up and the value of individual dollars would go down. Just looking the number of dollars, without looking at what they're doing, is like thinking you will gain weight because your fridge/pantry is stocked: > But also – why do so many people insist that inflation is an increase in the money s…

I fully admit what I said was simplistic and not meant to indicate the true complexity of the system. I agree with everything you’ve posted as inflation is not immediate merely because the money exists. I was presenting a rough zeroth order approximation because I didn’t understand how the value of money could be completely divorced from assets/the economy.

Re: Gold hits all time high

#115

Post by DonHopkins »

Muromec wrote: post #23
kragen wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold has a pretty stable value over long periods of time; the famous quote is: > an ounce of gold in Roman times bought a nice suit, and today, an ounce of gold buys a nice suit. Consequently it's the standard safe store of value investors flee to when the world is in upheaval, a role it has played since well before Roman times. Its price being high is a standard indicator of investors fearing miserable times ahead.…

An ounce is what -- 3800 USD now? That is indeed a nice suit.

A high quality realistic gorilla suit costs $4,500.00!

https://onlydinosaurs.com/realistic-gorilla-animal-costume-f...

Re: Gold hits all time high

#116

Post by skybrian »

wcfrobert wrote: post #72
paxys wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is it about Bitcoin over the thousands of other altcoins that have the exact same properties? A large enough group of people picked Bitcoin and said "this is the one". That's basically it. Same thing happened with gold at some point in human history and we just stuck to it.

Bitcoin is different. Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? How come his Bitcoin holdings - now worth more than $100 billion dollars - have remained untouched since 2010? How can any one human resist that kind of temptation? I would be digging landfill sites if I lost my wallet worth $100 billion. The launch of Bitcoin also coincided with the 2008 financial crisis. The first block had the text: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor o…

I imagine Satoshi Nakamoto has much less name recognition than Bitcoin? A simpler theory is that the first popular cryptocurrency became more and more famous due to a snowball effect, and nothing else is able to catch up.

Apparently the first popular stablecoin can't be beat either, despite its sketchy origins and a lot of bad press.

If beyond a certain point, only fame matters, it's kind of depressing from a technological innovation point of view.

Re: Gold hits all time high

#117

Post by defrost »

paulpauper wrote: post #104
johnohara wrote: post #82

The price of gold fluctuated significantly in 1979 due to concerns over whether inflation could be brought under control. It started the year at ~$250.00 per ounce and ended the year at ~$850.00 per ounce. It was a presidential election year and consumers were getting squeezed hard by rising energy prices. Russia invaded Afghanistan, Carter suspended participation in the Olympics, and there was a general feeling of c…

Yes, adjusted for inflation, gold has done much worse than the media hype would suggest.

Regardless, it's been a good winter trawling for nuggets on the W.Australian goldfields, not for much longer now the sun is starting to bite.

Re: Gold hits all time high

#118

Post by defrost »

kragen wrote: post #74
lomase wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A hand made suit would fit better in this case.

One of the eminently attackable facets of that claim is the varying availability of goods over the millennia, making it impossible to have a really stable and precise measure of value against which to measure gold's purchasing power. You can't buy silphium or Roman concrete today for any price, for example, nor a ticket to a gladiatorial match, and, from a certain point of view, most of the functions fulfilled by han…

Dying a kilo of fabric with real Tyrian purple is still an expensive process today.

Knock off purple is cheap, as are machine stitched fabrics .. neither pass the eye of those who judge such things though.

Re: Gold hits all time high

#119

Post by ajross »

thanhhaimai wrote: post #61
xhrpost wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>flight from USD assets given views that one cannot depend on US assets as safe havens I keep seeing this but then I also keep seeing the opposite: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/foreigners-buying-us-stocks-r...

I think you're conflating between 2 different things: the USD and US stocks from US companies. - The USD is definitely losing value. That also means stocks from US companies would be cheaper from a foreigner's point of view. - That means it represents good investment opportunity as long as the fundamentals of those companies are not affected too much (e.g. AI companies not directly affected by workers' raid, or pay t…

> - The USD is definitely losing value. That also means stocks from US companies would be cheaper from a foreigner's point of view.

That's actually not quite right. You can only buy securities on US markets with US dollars. You'd have to buy dollars on the money market to make that trade. So to the extent that "cheaper dollars" are driving investment in dollar-valued securities, they're increasing the value of the dollar on the global market by the same amount.

All markets seek toward efficiency. The situation you posit would be subject to a money-printing arbitrage loop if it actually existed.

Re: Gold hits all time high

#120

Post by rayiner »

jack_h wrote: post #113
rayiner wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not accurate for two reasons. First, the dollar isn’t just a medium of exchange, but a medium for storing value since it’s the reserve currency. Second, a dollar can get spent multiple times so there isn’t a direct relationship with the amount of economic activity as you suggest.

I don’t disagree with your first point, but your second point may have been a misunderstanding of what I said or I don’t understand what you’re saying. I’m not suggesting when you spend money it goes away and can’t be used again. I was more suggesting the M0/M1/M2 money supplies change in size which is distinct from GDP size, although I admit that is a simplification.

Gotcha. I thought you meant it was a 1:1 correlation. My mistake.
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