U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

Post by glenstein » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 3:46 PM UTC

franktankbank wrote: post #96

edoceo wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is back to basics mean here? Forgetting metrics, for a national economy, seems not good.

Incentivize our basic necessities and come down hard on fraud. If a bridge needs to be rebuilt pay to have it done. If shipping infrastructure needs to be modernized pay to have it done. If we need more mining get it done. Get it done and get it done fast. If bids are won but they go and fuck all the money away send them to jail. This is how stuff worked before people became obsessed with metrics.

Post by michaelbuckbee » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 3:48 PM UTC

logifail wrote: post #79

georgeecollins wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The department of labor has a methodology that gives an early number that tends to get revised. They have been doing it the same way for a long time and it would not be controversial, except the business press with too little news to report makes a big deal about it with very little context. So its, like jobs increased 200k (not saying +/- 200k is the error bar). It would be good for everyone if people who are not pr…

> It would be good for everyone if people who are not professional economists paid less attention to this. It would be good for everyone if the BLS figures were trusted. Even "not professional economists" might lose trust in figures which are regularly revised downwards ... months after being published.

Post by jeffbee » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 3:50 PM UTC

VoidWarranty wrote: post #110

cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

So uh, I'm the first person in my family to break the cycle of poverty. I have nobody I trust to follow advise with money. I do all the 'standard' boring investment strategies (401, index funds, roth, etc). I don't bother with crypto (scams). What does one do if stagflation is coming? Float more cash? Buy real estate?

Post by jeffbee » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 3:52 PM UTC

bananalychee wrote: post #70

logifail wrote: post #22

Q: Hasn't the US monthly jobs figure frequently been revised downwards over recent years, regardless of which administration was in charge? (edit - see for instance Aug 2024: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4142722-why-was-there-such-a-b... )

It's not without precedent, but the fact that initial job numbers have been consistently inflated over the last 3 years and that the magnitude of the downwards revisions is on par with 2008-2009 for two years in a row (and growing) is concerning.

Post by matwood » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 3:52 PM UTC

nodesocket wrote: post #94

putzdown wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love to see the evidence for or against this assertion. If BLS is grossly inaccurate, that'd be a good thing to know. If it's accurate, also good to know. Evidence?

We can start with this reading. Average monthly job growth dropped from 147,000 initially to just over 70,000 a reduction of approximately 52% from their data. This at precisely when the Fed needed to start cuts when the administration has been aggressively hammering them. Hopefully the Fed is not too late this time, and their 6+ month delay cutting won't result in a recession or serious economic impact.