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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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111–120 of 704 posts

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#111
post #97

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…

See this is what I don't understand. Everything you just said about China is a positive. Everything you said about China is achievable in the USA, and we at least HAD a head start on soft-power influence.

Instead we should just have tariffs instead of actually making the lives of Americans better while FIGHTING affordable housing, high speed rail, and EVs.

We've got an entire team of goons who would rather rack up penalty minutes than score goals. These freaks think we are competing with China in an MMA fight instead of a Hockey game.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know if you can factually back up your claims but I applaud your proper use of decimate. It is a rare thing. One might even say it happens less than 10% of the time.

Decimation was way worse than reduction by a tenth. It was a punishment in the Roman army where the offending unit was divided into groups of 10 and each group had to draw straws. Whoever drew the short straw must be stoned or clubbed to death by the other 9. If you threatened me with death if I didn't cut off my feet, I wouldn't consider that "reduction by 10%" even if mathematically it might be.

Could be worse, you could be stabbed.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#114
post #104

In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created. Higher cost of doing business from tariffs has frozen hiring. With a frozen job market, there’s less revenue coming in. NYC is a leading indicator for the rest of the country. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html

Even assuming that there were no other federal, state or local YoY differences [1] that could explain this change (and that the numbers are right as presented in the first place), New York City private sector employment is nothing like most other parts of the US: it's the largest city in the US by a large margin, it has a concentration of employment in a few major industries (finance, fashion, publishing, software) t…

This dismissal of a massive drop in hiring (literally 1.5% of the previous half year’s reported hiring) is wishful thinking.

“Ignore this data point, NYC is special.” Color me skeptical.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#115

In NYC, for the first 6 months of 2025, 994 new private sector jobs were created [1]. During the same period last year, there were 66,000 new jobs created. Higher cost of doing business from tariffs has frozen hiring. With a frozen job market, there’s less revenue coming in. NYC is a leading indicator for the rest of the country. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/nyregion/nyc-jobs.html

Looking at total private jobs over time, growth slowed after the post covid bump, but 2025 doesn't look all that different from 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU36935610500000001SA#

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#116
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would make sense if there were a single labor market. There isn’t, so this simply increases prices (even for domestic goods, as raw materials are frequently imported). There is no meaningful path to restoring much of the US’s lost manufacturing capacity. The rent is too damn high, and the cost of goods is rising quickly as well. Labor is expensive and becoming moreso daily. Manufacturing in the US can never comp…

Low labor costs are not why goods are produced in China. That viewpoint is outdated. Goods are produced in China because they have the most capacity and expertise. Don’t believe me. Believe Tim Cook: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2wacXUrONUY

https://www.molsonhart.com/blog/america-underestimates-the-d...

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#117
post #85

I’d like to lay out an argument about why tariffs are good. The only businesses that are derailing with tariffs issues are those that import goods to sell. The argument against tariffs is that they make goods more expensive. Of course, this argument is true. But that’s not the end of the story. Because prices are higher for imported goods, demand for domestically produced goods increases. This increase in demand lead…

Incentives work better than tariffs. Tariffs are less effective due to their uncertainty (why would I build a factory if the next admin removes the tariffs?)

The fact that X is more effective than Y is not an argument against Y if X and Y are not mutually exclusive.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#118
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even assuming that there were no other federal, state or local YoY differences [1] that could explain this change (and that the numbers are right as presented in the first place), New York City private sector employment is nothing like most other parts of the US: it's the largest city in the US by a large margin, it has a concentration of employment in a few major industries (finance, fashion, publishing, software) t…

This dismissal of a massive drop in hiring (literally 1.5% of the previous half year’s reported hiring) is wishful thinking. “Ignore this data point, NYC is special.” Color me skeptical.

I'm not ignoring it, but I’m not falling into a post hoc fallacy, either.

I'll put it this way: if I were ignoring it, I'd be ignoring one more data point than you are in cherry-picking a single example.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#119
post #97

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…

See this is what I don't understand. Everything you just said about China is a positive. Everything you said about China is achievable in the USA, and we at least HAD a head start on soft-power influence. Instead we should just have tariffs instead of actually making the lives of Americans better while FIGHTING affordable housing, high speed rail, and EVs. We've got an entire team of goons who would rather rack up pe…

I feel it's more they're not actually playing for the scoreline. They want to be the team #1, even if that causes the team to lose in the end.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#120
post #31

[flagged]

No, why should they, there are many concurents out there. But! Once the prices go up because of some taxes, they never go as low as they were before. Thats no theory, thats life. Say good bye, to the prices you see now, you will never see them again ;-)

> Thats no theory, thats life.

It's inflation, which is caused by deficit spending.

The US didn't have inflation before 1914.

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