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AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

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Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#111

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

Insanity wrote: post #108
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm talking about the belief that somehow AI will eventually do all our jobs for us. I don't personally believe that LLMs will get anywhere close to that.

Yeah, I'm definitely agreeing with you on this. Which is why I think we're probably decades out from a post-work society. I do think it's inevitable, but in an optimistic kind of way. My take is that an LLM is not ever going to lead to AGI, it's fundamentally the wrong paradigm to develop true intelligence. Either way, I doubt that will happen in my lifetime and I don't spend any time worrying about it.

I spend time worrying about the people who are trying to convince people it'll happen in our lifetime.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#112

Post by 1vuio0pswjnm7 »

"While anecdotal evidence has emerged showing AI's effects on certain professions, such as software coding, there has been little harder evidence that the technology was significantly weighing on the labor market."

Anecdotal evidence accompanied by repeated wild speculation about _other_ occupations, including ones with educational and certification requirements

"The Stanford economists first looked at areas where AI can automate many of the tasks workers perform, and therefore potentially replace them. Those include jobs such as software developers, receptionists, translators and customer service representatives."

Generally, none of those require professional certification or even a college degree; they are "unregulated"

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Guidance-on...

"Head counts among customer service representatives a category that, unlike software development, generally doesn't require a college education followed a similar pattern."

The author assumes that software development requires a college degree

NB. Even if it is common to have one this is not the same as a legal requirement

https://www.nocsdegree.com/blog/companies-that-hire-programm...

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#113

Post by mohami2000 »

frankbreetz wrote: post #69
ecb_penguin wrote: post #10

This could be the next iteration of stealing talent to prevent others from owning the market. An actually intelligent investor could dominate by bucking the trend and hire lots of smart, eager junior candidates. When other tech companies realize GenAI will never produce what they want, there will be a rush to re-hire developers. Top talent all started as junior talent. Grab that pool so nobody else will have it.

The issue with hiring many juniors is, when there is another dev boom, all the juniors that were hired, now mids or seniors, are going to jump ship to whoever is going to pay them the most. So, the company can either grow talent and then pay them market rate or hire at market rates from other companies that grew them. Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual co…

Also, a lot of companies are not attractive enough for seniors (low job security/ not good environment/ not exciting work/ etc), so they are forced to hire juniors

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#114

Post by jurking_hoff »

dizlexic wrote: post #99
babl-yc wrote: post #25

One crazy stat -- In 2024, 21% of all bachelor's degrees awarded were Computer Science from University of Maryland College Park. It was 3% in 2011. I don't agree with the article that AI is wrecking job prospects. I see it is as companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP. Nonetheless, it's gotta be tough out there for new grads. https://www.usmd.edu/IRIS…

100%, I'm shocked how many articles / doom sayers ignore the explosion in CS grads over the last decade. I really believe it's just for the headlines.

[dead]

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#115

Post by jurking_hoff »

darth_avocado wrote: post #56
bobosha wrote: post #15

IMO AI is going eat most jobs - including the experienced ones - it's just a matter of time. There is no sugar coating this unfortunately.

When AI takes all the jobs, it better start ordering junk from Amazon, have a Costco membership, order in Tacos on Tuesday and watch Instagram reels all day on its brand new iPhone because all the jobless people won’t be able to.

[dead]

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#117

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Moomoomoo309 wrote: post #102
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> discretionary income is either stagnant in many sectors or are being chipped away from every angle: rent, healthcare, transport, childcare or leisure This is false. Real disposable personal income is higher today than any time before March 2020 [1]. Covid stimulus first dramatically raised (March '20 to '21) and then lowered (March '21 to June '22) that figure. But we hit a local maximum in April '25, after which r…

If you see how real disposable personal income is defined, it basically just says how much personal income in total there is - if 90% of it was in the hands of 1% of the people, it does not tell you that. It does not tell you a median either - it's just how big the pool is. Household incomes are up, but is that inflation adjusted, and how does that compare to cost of living? The conclusion you are coming to is not su…

> Household incomes are up, but is that inflation adjusted

Yes. That’s what the “real” part communicates in economics data.

> how does that compare to cost of living? The conclusion you are coming to is not supported by the data you provided alone

If aggregate real personal disposable incomes are up, and real median household incomes are up, for real median household disposable incomes to be down requires an extreme increase in lower income households’ costs of living compared with higher incomes households’. (No, rising wealth wouldn’t fix that disparity because we’re measuring income and consumption, the former which exempts capital gains.)

Inflation effects are unevenly spread across households [1]. But the slope of the effect, at least as of ‘21, was insufficient to shift the median negative. What it probably was sufficient to do, especially by 2024, is shift somewhere between the lower decile to maybe quartile’s real disposable household income negative since ~2025 to 2018, when we last moderated interest rates. But not since the GFC.

TL; DR While OP’s statement is true of some households, and probably most households in the lower decile to quarter, it’s not true in general. (Caveat: it may be true if we include recent Medicaid and poverty-related cuts.)

[1] https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/report...

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#118

Post by JumpCrisscross »

rchaud wrote: post #95
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> discretionary income is either stagnant in many sectors or are being chipped away from every angle: rent, healthcare, transport, childcare or leisure This is false. Real disposable personal income is higher today than any time before March 2020 [1]. Covid stimulus first dramatically raised (March '20 to '21) and then lowered (March '21 to June '22) that figure. But we hit a local maximum in April '25, after which r…

Disposable income is income after taxes. Discretionary income, which is what I specified, is income that remains after the necessities of life have been paid for.

> Discretionary income, which is what I specified, is income that remains after the necessities of life have been paid for

You’re correct. See the personal savings rate [1]. If we observe the distribution, the lower quartile to third of households have no material savings [2].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

[2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2025-economic-we...

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#120

Post by ecb_penguin »

frankbreetz wrote: post #69
ecb_penguin wrote: post #10

This could be the next iteration of stealing talent to prevent others from owning the market. An actually intelligent investor could dominate by bucking the trend and hire lots of smart, eager junior candidates. When other tech companies realize GenAI will never produce what they want, there will be a rush to re-hire developers. Top talent all started as junior talent. Grab that pool so nobody else will have it.

The issue with hiring many juniors is, when there is another dev boom, all the juniors that were hired, now mids or seniors, are going to jump ship to whoever is going to pay them the most. So, the company can either grow talent and then pay them market rate or hire at market rates from other companies that grew them. Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual co…

> all the juniors that were hired, now mids or seniors, are going to jump ship to whoever is going to pay them the most

Yeah, that's the point!

> So, the company can either grow talent and then pay them market rate or hire at market rates from other companies that grew them.

It's not a zero sum game. The simple fact you overlooked is not every junior jumps ship.

> Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual company

Things that are good for the industry DO benefit individual companies. Having a large and capable talent pool is good for everyone.

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