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A bubble that knows it's a bubble

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Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#111

Post by 1718627440 »

lproven wrote: post #101
cryptos wrote: post #85

What do you think will be the survivors of the AI business, once the bubble bursts?

Now that is the most interesting question anyone here asked. It looks likely it could take all the big software companies with it, and all the big cloud providers. It may well kill most GPU vendors, most datacentre and hosting companies. Industrial-scale LLMs are propping up the entire cloud business, and that itself was bloated and overgrown. SaaS was a mistake. Anything -aaS was a mistake. I'd _like_ to see this ki…

I don't think for example MS will be doomed so fast. Even when they loose all their investments and a lot of money. They still have their software, and contracts with nearly every company.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#113

Post by izacus »

bostik wrote: post #46
fhd2 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> however, the core infrastructural asset of GPUs tends to become rapidly obsolete after about 5 years. Is it all about the actual GPUs though, is that the only "infrastructure" being built? A list from the top of my head of things that I'd say do last: 1. Data center buildings (take a while to build, contents completely aside). 2. Organisations and processes for running operations and procurement in said data center…

Consider the second order effects of building all those data centers. The GPU hardware rots and becomes obsolete in a matter of years, but the national infrastructure required to support the physical sites isn't going away. Things such as... - improved power distribution networks - logistics arrangements to build and support the DC sites - lots and lots of new fibre interconnects to support the massive bandwidth need…

I'll be honest: this list sounds like grasping at straws to find something positive in this fiasco and doesn't come close to building something lasting and valuable for USA.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#114

Post by izacus »

oezi wrote: post #27
WA wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI-is-hype people are delusional. The computer has never been able to do what it’s doing today. We could only dream of it. Sure, but do the math. It doesn’t work out yet. This stuff burns money and energy. Either revenue has to go up A LOT or costs do have to come down A LOT (or quality has to suffer by using smaller models).

If we assume that every American will pay 20 USD per month for AI that's already 100bn per year. Electricity will become very cheap during the day at least with solar continuing its declining trajectory.

If I assume every American pays me 20 USD, I'm a billionaire too.

But that assumption would be as silly as yours.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#115

Post by aurareturn »

rurp wrote: post #100
aurareturn wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is their gross margins? Is the loss just because they have to keep competing at an ultra competitive race? On a software focused forum like HN, I’m surprised people still don’t understand the grow at all cost until you are the top 2 or 3 left model. There has been dozens of examples of tech companies losing money for years just to become highly profitable after. People are still not getting that big tech is inve…

> There has been dozens of examples of tech companies losing money for years just to become highly profitable after. Sure, but there have been thousands of tech companies that lost money year over year and went bust. Odds are that any given AI company will end up losing a lot of money. Maybe the asymmetric potential payoff is worth the risk in certain cases, but it's not crazy to be skeptical about Anthropic or any o…

  Sure, but there have been thousands of tech companies that lost money year over year and went bust. Odds are that any given AI company will end up losing a lot of money. Maybe the asymmetric potential payoff is worth the risk in certain cases, but it's not crazy to be skeptical about Anthropic or any other hot company.
That's the game. It's called the power law in VC investing. It's worked.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#116

Post by _carbyau_ »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #4

I had the same thoughts as much as 2 years ago on how this will play out. Unlike with railroads and fiber optic cable however, the core infrastructural asset of GPUs tends to become rapidly obsolete after about 5 years. Commoditization of this scale of compute is definitely going to be a boon for many fields of research. Unfortunately fundamental public research is exactly what is being cut right now in the US. Long…

I suspect that if AI doesn't use the compute then something else will happily fill the gap - like building more lanes on a highway. It will be interesting to see what fills the GPU compute glut though.

Regards robot form factor; I'd rather R2D2 than C3PO. I don't want anything approaching the Uncanny Valley; I want a machine that does handy things!

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#117

Post by [deleted] »

aurareturn wrote: post #79
Lionga wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

5.6 billion loss in 2024 on $918 million in revenue. When you are selling a 5 dollars for 1 dollar doubling revenue is easy. It just creates more losses, same with OpenAI

What is their gross margins? Is the loss just because they have to keep competing at an ultra competitive race? On a software focused forum like HN, I’m surprised people still don’t understand the grow at all cost until you are the top 2 or 3 left model. There has been dozens of examples of tech companies losing money for years just to become highly profitable after. People are still not getting that big tech is inve…

[deleted]

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#118

Post by ehnto »

ffsm8 wrote: post #83
Fargren wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of those are arguments for why robots should generally have wheels rather than legs, except for when legs are specifically needed.

Give me the option of a humanoid looking across that takes care of all in house chores and one that's that utility based with wheels and arms, I will likely choose the humanoid one even with a 100% premium price. I mean I wouldn't buy either unless I could be certain it's not uploading all data to the cloud and be fully controlled by a user hostile company, but if we're talking fantasy tech ala Detroit: become human.…

The cloud situation is where it's probably going to fall down at first (haha). I don't see companies choosing to offer local model integration over the possibility of using the robot as a loss leader to a long term subscription model for access to the compute/inference.

But that's going to be hilarious. Imagine your internet goes down while the bot is half way down your stairs, or the in the middle of pouring a drink. Very fun.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#119

Post by ehnto »

electroly wrote: post #103
Fargren wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of those are arguments for why robots should generally have wheels rather than legs, except for when legs are specifically needed.

Furthermore, mobile robots currently in home use--vacuum and mop robots--are all wheeled, of course. We've shown we can accommodate wheeled robots in the home if we feel like the payoff is worth it.

Well I think wheels match the use case there, a small bot close to the ground with just the one job. I think there will be many wheeled bots to begin with. But long term I don't see that form factor scaling to "able to do all tasks around the house".

It's super easy to come up with scenarios that a wheeled bot can't cope with, but again "good enough, cheap enough" will probably see lots of wheeled bots on the market. I am just trying to show why the pioneering companies would be interested in bipedal bots, it's a long term play.

Lastly, the elephant in the room is that basically all general purpose bots are a euphemism for military bots that will need to operate in unknowable conditions.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#120

Post by FinnLobsien »

scheme271 wrote: post #109
FinnLobsien wrote: post #11

I think this is directionally correct. But we tend to remember the technologies which became mainstream after the bubble burst and forget those that fizzled or found a much less world-changing niche. Blockchain, NFTs and 3D printing are still around and have vacuumed up billions and billions without the average person being able to tell an impact on their lives.

3d printing has gone somewhat mainstream unlike the others. Manufacturers use it and it's somewhat common to see stuff that's been 3d printed being sold or created as small run prototypes.

Yeah and that’s exactly what I mean. It’s found its place and is a useful technology. But it has not revolutionized entire industries like the internet, smartphone etc
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