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What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

derekthompson.org

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Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#111

Post by analognoise »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #34
phkahler wrote: post #6

What will it take to have a stable society that doesn't depend on indefinite economic/population growth?

We certainly can't have a stable society with a rapidly shrinking population.

We can’t have billionaires with their own private space programs and 5 families with more wealth than 50% of America, and have a stable society.

This is just the natural and obvious outcome of what we’re already dealing with. The fertility crisis is just our refusal to deal appropriately with the ultra rich and the collapse of our institutions.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#112

Post by nilamo »

Aurornis wrote: post #65
nilamo wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's over 8 billion people, the population is exceptionally stable my friend.

The article (which you read, right?) is specifically about developed countries and cites examples like France with fertility rates below 2.1

France isn't all of humanity. France's population can decline without any major impact. Life goes on.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#115

Post by toomuchtodo »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #109
toomuchtodo wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an opportunity to see how to make it work. If it doesn’t, we’re all dead eventually. I find the idea of creating new life to keep a poorly functioning pyramid scheme going grotesque, ymmv. Edit: If you want to have kids in this macro, good luck, you’re on your own (based on the evidence). And it’s only going to keep getting more expensive to exist in our lifetimes (shrinking labor supply, climate change, sove…

Things that old people need are going to get super expensive with a shrinking population because there are so few working age people providing those services compared to the number of retirees. So you're saying "don't have kids because things are getting so expensive", while the reason they're getting expensive is because people aren't having enough kids....

I’m absolutely telling people not to have kids into a macro that just wants economic slavery to pay back debt of all sorts incurred (sovereign, demographic).

Labor was cheap because of a population boom with a root cause of women not empowered. Now empowered, they are having less children (family planning, not having unwanted or unaffordable children). Suboptimal economic systems can change, and they should.

Can you say with a straight face, “Have more kids and be beholden to 1-2 decades of minimally compensated childrearing labor and potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in costs so the economy might get better and things might be cheap again?” I cannot.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#116

Post by UncleMeat »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #34
phkahler wrote: post #6

What will it take to have a stable society that doesn't depend on indefinite economic/population growth?

We certainly can't have a stable society with a rapidly shrinking population.

The population isn't even shrinking, let alone shrinking rapidly.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#117

Post by Henchman21 »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #34
phkahler wrote: post #6

What will it take to have a stable society that doesn't depend on indefinite economic/population growth?

We certainly can't have a stable society with a rapidly shrinking population.

The population is rapidly shrinking because our “elites” only sow the seeds of despair. They only act in their own best interests. The commons are gone and all we have left is the memory of it. Stability is not on the horizon.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#118

Post by Henchman21 »

analognoise wrote: post #111
bryanlarsen wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We certainly can't have a stable society with a rapidly shrinking population.

We can’t have billionaires with their own private space programs and 5 families with more wealth than 50% of America, and have a stable society. This is just the natural and obvious outcome of what we’re already dealing with. The fertility crisis is just our refusal to deal appropriately with the ultra rich and the collapse of our institutions.

I continue to need someone to ELI5 precisely why we shouldn’t kill those 5 families and redistribute their shit.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#119

Post by bryanlarsen »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #115
bryanlarsen wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things that old people need are going to get super expensive with a shrinking population because there are so few working age people providing those services compared to the number of retirees. So you're saying "don't have kids because things are getting so expensive", while the reason they're getting expensive is because people aren't having enough kids....

I’m absolutely telling people not to have kids into a macro that just wants economic slavery to pay back debt of all sorts incurred (sovereign, demographic). Labor was cheap because of a population boom with a root cause of women not empowered. Now empowered, they are having less children (family planning, not having unwanted or unaffordable children). Suboptimal economic systems can change, and they should. Can you…

You're screwed financially during child-bearing years if you have kids. You're screwed financially in retirement if you don't, because care is going to be super expensive if/when the population pyramid gets inverted.

The only way to not get screwed is to switch back to the standard non-Western care model: grandparents take on much of the burden of caring for children, and children take care of parents.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#120

Post by josefritzishere »

I dislike the premise here. It assumes we want another baby boom. There are 8.2 Billion humans on Earth. We do not need another "boom." A 7% increase in birthdate would be disasterous. Define Boomers and the boom: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers)
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