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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#111

Post by ivape »

TrainedMonkey wrote: post #59
rawgabbit wrote: post #16

This is good news. The level of crime and number of offenders has decreased. Quotes from the article: > As of 2016—the most recent year for which data are available—the average man in state prison had been arrested nine times, was currently incarcerated for his sixth time, and was serving a 16-year sentence. > But starting in the late 1960s, a multidecade crime wave swelled in America, and an unprecedented number of…

Like all complex phenomena 1960s crime wave probably has many causes, but lead poisoning stands out - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis

Drugs. Don’t overthink things.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#112

Post by kayodelycaon »

PartiallyTyped wrote: post #105
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too?

No. You can’t blame lead. There is zero justification for making the average person less responsible for their own worldview and choices in leadership.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#113

Post by aaomidi »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

And abortion access.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#114

Post by JumpCrisscross »

aaomidi wrote: post #113
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

And abortion access.

Probably not. That played out in the last wave of crime reduction.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#115

Post by kayodelycaon »

ivape wrote: post #109
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too? More of a pet theory, but voters born between 1950 and 1980, boomers and Gen X, have had a well-documented set of policy preferences.

What if I told you voters born between nnnn-yyyy had a set of policy preferences?

There’s supposedly a cycle of attitude between generations. If your parents are X, you want to be Y. If your parents are Y, you want to be Z. If your parents are Z, you want to be X

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#116

Post by throwaway_2121 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

Lack of boredom is also a factor.

Social media and modern games are keeping them occupied.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#117

Post by tptacek »

saulpw wrote: post #88
1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote: post #83

The Atlantic suggests this results from the release of those convicted during a decades long crime wave, which apprently took place when many of us grew up. Perhaps it also tracks with a progressive decline in law enforcement. Whether that is because crime waves not longer exist or whether it is some other reason is a question for the reader. A substanbtial amount of crime is now done via internet. Few are ever convi…

Marijuana possession was the number one crime and is now legal in a majority of states. This seems like the high-order bit.

At what point in the last 30 years did cannabis possession account for even a plurality of incarcerated persons, in any state or federally?

Cannabis is not the high order bit.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#118

Post by anyfoo »

wvenable wrote: post #101
anyfoo wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not have more time in my 20s. In my 20s and early 30s, I was busy “getting out there”. Building my life, my interests, my foundation (not just my career). Now I have a happy life to stand on, and can devote more time, attention, and energy to my family. I don’t deny that your way can work out as well. But OPs advice was “get children before you are 30, don’t wait until after”. Whereas my honest advice, based on…

I was “getting out there” too! So many major life milestones. But actually it has never stopped. Most of my major career changes happened after the second child. I have entirely new interests now. I feel like I do have the unique perspective having actually done both. I don't need to assume what kind of parent I was in my 20s because I was that parent. And I'm a different parent now. But being a younger parent was a…

That’s interesting. Because I genuinely feel I’m much better cut out to be a parent now. Is it different for you? I have so much patience and understanding, and I see that lacking in many of the younger parents around me. I see them and I remember myself.

And the life I have would just not have been possible if I had a child back then. Not even if I completely sacrificed family time and attention back then, which I never would have wanted.

But I guess we have to agree to disagree. For you, being a younger parent worked out better. For me, I’m certain I got my child at the right time. In any case, I find OPs general recommendation that if you want children, you should have them by 30, to be ill-advised to the point of being harmful. Many people would benefit from waiting until later.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#119

Post by tptacek »

WalterBright wrote: post #51
outside1234 wrote: post #5

Crime is also way down over the last 20 years: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-...

At least in Seattle, crime is "way down" because many businesses have stopped reporting it, because the police don't respond to less serious crimes anymore. A shopkeeper friend of mine closed his business in Seattle after multiple lootings of his place and the police never showing up. He relocated to a bedroom community. Crime statistics are not necessarily accurate, and politicians have an interest in minimizing tho…

This is why the headline statistic for crime tracking is usually homicide, which is also down.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#120

Post by Swizec »

pamelafox wrote: post #98
bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

I had my children at 36 and 38, and I'm the mother, and energy-wise, I've had no issues. Yes, they considered me to be of "advanced maternal age" in the OB department and gave me special treatment due to it, but my doctors told me that the "advanced maternal age" threshold (35) was based off outdated research anyway. In the bay area, most of the mothers I've met were around that age, and my friends are having their k…

> In the bay area, most of the mothers I've met were around that age, and my friends are having their kids at the same age

San Francisco has the highest rate of geriatric pregnancies in USA. We are in a statistical bubble where having kids late is normal (because careers and hcol).

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/mother-birth-age...

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