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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#111

Post by JumpCrisscross »

misiti3780 wrote: post #99
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> unbelievable how we have a level of autonomy here and now, and not too many people know about it Would note that most premium cars sold in America currently have advanced self-driving capabilities. I've personally been more impressed by Mercedes' kit than Tesla's, mostly because the former seems to have done a great job of defining where you can almost trust the system to just work.

wow, that is quite a hot take!

Don't get me wrong, Tesla's FSD is way cooler. It feels more futuristic, takes more risks and has more-entertaining animations on the display. But it also drives like a 16-year old on PCP, which means I never quite trust it. Mercedes, on the other hand, built something that I can get into and intuitively trust. That's impressive in a different way from the roller-coaster approach, and I'd argue in a more useful way when it comes to cars, but it's really a distinction between what one values in the driving experience. (I'm pretty meh when it comes to driving. As evidenced by my owning a Subaru. All that said, Waymos are the only one I've taken a nap in and I believe that will be true for a long time.)

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#112

Post by tuckerman »

xnx wrote: post #89
tuckerman wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a huge proponent of e2e learning for robotics (worked at two places doing e2e before Tesla adopted it) and personally believe its the right approach long term. I also have FSD on my Model 3 and love it for L2+. That said, my experience with disengagements is very different than yours.. I have a few a week for things like road works, school zones, route map following. Perfectly fine for L2+, L4 it would be unaccep…

e2e is good, but why limit yourself to only cameras? e2e with cameras, radar, and lidar is going to perform better.

You could argue its not necessary to achieve performance for an L2+ product and so keeps BOM cost down while still achieving goals. I'm not personally opposed though, the systems I worked on did have other sensors we could use.

That wouldn't resolve the concern around debugging/root-causing and remediating failures more quickly though. You still have a black box system that is difficult to simulate closed loop.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#113

Post by msgodel »

Powdering7082 wrote: post #60
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

I've been buying Tesla puts at a small scale for the past 6 months, usually puts about a month out. It's been a great way to lose money so far.

Regardless of what happens theta and IV crush will probably wipe you out. I don't like Tesla's stock but I don't touch it just because both the stock and options tend to be way overpriced.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#114

Post by srj »

As an austinite I'm nervous about these things. My son and his classmates play along the street and I'm 90% sure I saw one of these driving by our house last week, presumably for testing. The street is legally at a higher speed than most people will drive because there's a lot of activity and no sidewalks which I'm about to argue for changing. Normal people will slow when they see kids around but autonomous cars still drive their normal speed.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#115

Post by antisthenes »

nickff wrote: post #61
antisthenes wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theranos never went public, so the quote about markets doesn't apply. I do agree with the general sentiment, however. If FSD kills a person, many executives, including the top dog, need to go to jail.

That seems like an awfully low bar to imprisoning people. Shouldn't executives at every company which designs or manufactures vehicles go to jail by your standard? If not, why?

Because the product here isn't the car itself.

It's FSD. Which is bought separately and advertised separately.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#116

Post by AlotOfReading »

nickff wrote: post #109
flkiwi wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because there's a fundamental difference between "manufactures a car with well-understood features in a mature regulatory space" and "prematurely deploys untested and unprecedented functionality without oversight." If a legacy manufacturer rushed out a product that ignored regulation, for example, they should be similarly subject to prosecution.

There's lots of oversight in the automotive space; everything from the dashboard indicators to the crash standards are tightly regulated. Perhaps the regulators should be 'better', but it seems to me that Tesla is quite compliant (as it does 'recalls' and all the like). Which regulations is Tesla maliciously failing to comply with?

There are no requirements in FMVSS that meaningfully apply to FSD, unless you want to consider AEB part of FSD (which it isn't). Tesla voluntarily follows ISO 26262 for the parts they consider safety critical (i.e. not FSD), but that's just a generic software process standard. ISO 21448 is both uncommon in industry and voluntary. Tesla does not follow SAE J3016 terminology internally. Tesla does not follow UL4600. Tesla flouts both the CA DMV and the NHTSA reporting requirements. Etc.

Can you point out where there's meaningful oversight that Tesla cooperates with without complaining or missing data?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#117

Post by kreetx »

kajecounterhack wrote: post #36
kreetx wrote: post #23

Note that electrec.co only ever has negative takes on Tesla.

OK but also note there's also not a "both sides" to everything. Some stuff can just suck.

I'm sure it might. It's just that any news item from this particular site has been negative. (Even the one from 2019 that the sibling links.)

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#118

Post by jjav »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

> I have over $100k in Tesla puts.

I also have Tesla puts but that is brave!

While extremely overvalued by any metric, Musk has also been somehow able to keep the stock flying high for years and years on the force of hyperbolic lies (full self driving only a few month away forever) which most of the market keeps believing. It's a fascinating counterexample to the idea that the stock market can't be fooled.

So I only keep a few puts at a time because the hype surrounding the stock tends to outlive the expiration on the options. Every now and then I cash in big when it has a nice drop though.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#120

Post by jjcm »

coliveira wrote: post #28
jjcm wrote: post #11

I own two Teslas, and drive between Portland and Seattle about once every 10 days, using FSD nearly the entire way. FSD has gotten amazingly better over the last year, it can and has taken me from driveway to driveway between two cities... when the weather is nice. As soon as there is any weather however, things start to fall apart. It's very clear to me that vision alone wont be the solution to FSD, and is the main…

For someone living in Seattle, a product that requires good weather is close to useless...

It does limit things. I will say though, from a psychological standpoint, it does do a good job of making me value FSD more! I'm always surprised how much I miss having FSD when I have to drive myself now. Very much a, "ugh I have to drive with my hands??" reaction.

I do find it interesting that it's valuable enough for me that I'll plan my drives between the two cities around the weather, so I can have it on for the trip.

Whatever company gets true self driving (ie no weather restrictions) to the market first is going to make an absolute killing. It's so valuable, Tesla's just isn't reliable yet.

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