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Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

garymarcus.substack.com

111–120 of 331 posts

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#111
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the student could reference notes a fraction of the size of the LLM then I would not be convinced.

I suspect human memory consists of a lot more bits than LLMs encode.

I rest my case — the question concerns a quality, not a quantity. These juvenile comparisons are mere excuses.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#112
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like a totally reasonable response ... ?

I think you missed the part where I had to give them hinits to solve it. All 3 initially couldn't or refused saying it was not a real problem on their first try.

Can you share the chats? I tried with o3 and it gave a pretty reasonable answer on the first try.

https://chatgpt.com/share/684e02de-03f0-800a-bfd6-cbf9341f71...

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#113

The key insight is that LLMs can 'reason' when they've seen similar solutions in training data, but this breaks down on truly novel problems. This isn't reasoning exactly, but close enough to be useful in many circumstances. Repeating solutions on demand can be handy, just like repeating facts on demand is handy. Marcus gets this right technically but focuses too much on emotional arguments rather than clear explanat…

That alone would be revolutionary - but still aspirational for now. The other day Gemini mixed up left and right on me in response to basic textbook problem.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand what people mean when they say that AI is being hyped. AI is at the point where you can have a conversation with it about almost anything, and it will answer more intelligently than 90% of people. That's incredibly impressive, and normal people don't need to be sold on it. They're just naturally impressed by it.

I don’t need a tool that’s right maybe 70% of the time (and that’s me being optimistic). It needs to be right all the time or at least tell you when it doesn’t know for sure, instead of just making up something. Comparing it to going out in the streets and asking random people random questions is not a good comparison.

It might not fit your work, but there are tons of areas where “good enough” can still provide a lot of value. I’m sure you’d be thrilled with a tool that could correctly tell you if Apple’s stock was going up or down tomorrow 70% of the time.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#116

> 1. Humans have trouble with complex problems and memory demands. True! But incomplete. We have every right to expect machines to do things we can’t. [...] If we want to get to AGI, we will have to better. I don't get this argument. The paper is about "whether RLLMs can think". If we grant "humans make these mistakes too", but also "we still require this ability in our definition of thinking", aren't we saying "thin…

Agreed. But also his point about AGI is incorrect. AI that will perform on the level of average human in every task is AGI by definition.

That very much depends on which AGI definition you are using. I imagine there are a dozen or so variants out there. See also "AI" and "agents" and (apparently) "vibe coding" and pretty much every other piece of jargon in this field.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#117
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m so tired of hearing this be repeated, like the whole “LLMs are _just_ parrots” thing. It’s patently obvious to me that LLMs can reason and solve novel problems not in their training data. You can test this out in so many ways, and there’s so many examples out there. ______________ Edit for responders, instead of replying to each: We obviously have to define what we mean by "reasoning" and "solving novel problems"…

I've done this excercise dozens of times because people keep saying it, but I can't find an example where this is true. I wish it was. I'd be solving world problems with novel solutions right now. People make a common mistake by conflating "solving problems with novel surface features" with "reasoning outside training data." This is exactly the kind of binary thinking I mentioned earlier.

I think that "solving world problems with novel solutions" is a strawman for an ability to reason well. We cannot solve world problems with reasoning, because pure reasoning has no relation to reality. We lack data and models about the world to confirm and deny our hypotheses about the world. That is why the empirical sciences do experiments instead of sit in an armchair and mull all day.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#118
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The funny thing is, if you asked “what is AGI” 5 years ago, most people would describe something like o3.

Even Sam Altman thinks we’re not at AGI yet (although of course it’s coming “soon”).

Markus has been consistently wrong over the many years predicting the (lack of) progress of the current deep learning methods. Altman has been correct so far.

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#119

> 1. Humans have trouble with complex problems and memory demands. True! But incomplete. We have every right to expect machines to do things we can’t. [...] If we want to get to AGI, we will have to better. I don't get this argument. The paper is about "whether RLLMs can think". If we grant "humans make these mistakes too", but also "we still require this ability in our definition of thinking", aren't we saying "thin…

Agreed. But also his point about AGI is incorrect. AI that will perform on the level of average human in every task is AGI by definition.

[deleted]

Re: Seven replies to the viral Apple reasoning paper and why they fall short

#120
post #40

Most of the objections and their counterarguments seem like either poor objections (e.g. ad hominem against the first listed author) or seem to be subsumed under point 5. It’s annoying that most of this post focuses so much effort on discussing most of the other objections when the important discussion is the one to be had in point 5: I.e. to what extent are LLMs able to reliably make use of writing code or using log…

> I’d expect a smart human to just say “that’s too much” or “that’s beyond my abilities” rather than do a best effort faulty answer)? That's what the models did. They gave the first 100 steps, then explained how it was too much to output all of it, and gave the steps one would follow to complete it. They were graded as "wrong answer" for this. --- Source: https://x.com/scaling01/status/1931783050511126954?t=ZfmpSxH..…

Why should we trust a guy with the following twitter bio to accurately replicate a scientific finding?

>lead them to paradise

>intelligence is inherently about scaling

>be kind to us AGI

Who even is this guy? He seems like just another r/singularity-style tech bro.

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