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Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

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Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#111

Post by ivape »

wood_spirit wrote: post #27
ivape wrote: post #17

It's kind of a damn shame a man like that was not tapped for any major economic position in the government. I don't know how men like Peter Navarro got so far. In a sense, all the money in the world didn't actually fulfill his true potential, and I say that with the utmost respect.

> I don't know how men like Peter Navarro got so far. It’s a weird story. IIRC in the run for president before trumps first term he sent Jared Kushner to find out about trade. Kushner browsed Amazon, looking at book covers, and picked Navarro’s book because he liked the title… and the rest is history

You've got to be kidding ...

Oh god, you're not:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/328969-report-ku...

I feel impotent, what is there to be done?

Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#112

Post by 0cf8612b2e1e »

unsnap_biceps wrote: post #62
Supermancho wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard he has a knack for prediction. Pair that with advantageous events (or prior to) and 7mo ahead is the result of a calculation.

Sure, but at his age, heath issues spiral out of control very very very fast. I fully expect that he doesn't have a specific health concern right now and is planning ahead because if he did have a specific health issue, I don't expect that he would be able to plan 7 months ahead.

I suspect there has been succession a plan in place for at least 20 years.

Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#113

Post by andrewl »

maxilevi wrote: post #68
photochemsyn wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the US government really wanted to bring back industrial manufacturing, tax policy is one obvious route - eg a 2/3 tax on billionaire and corporate wealth, such as on the huge pile of cash Buffet-Berkshire is sitting on, but then offer a way out - invest that cash in domestic manufacturing and R & D and it won't be taxed. This could motivate the private sector to go back to the Bell Labs model, too.

As if the government could do better capital allocation in the economy than buffett

As if the government could do better capital allocation in the economy than buffett

That seems to be what Buffett is suggesting.

Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#114

Post by dehrmann »

nabla9 wrote: post #108
dehrmann wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because it beat indexes doesn't mean it couldn't have done better. From 2017: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/06/warren-buffett-admits-he-mad...

"Not to diminish the accomplishments of Magnus Carlsen , but he has lost many games." "Not to diminish the accomplishments of the world's best poker player, but he did lose many hands."

My point is that you have to put all of his wisdom and stories in the context of what he's good at and the environment he was in. He tried to apply his value investing playbook to early Google, and it looked like a bad investment. He later realized this (see my link), but that gets talked about less than value investing in its heyday. Aside: for debated reasons, value investing, which used to outperform, has been in a slump for a long time.

It's east to hear his story and think if you do the same thing, you'd be successful. If you did the same thing in 1970, you might be! And some of his wisdom is generally applicable, but reading his story as a guide for investing today isn't the right approach.

Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#115

Post by codethief »

JimmyBiscuit wrote: post #90
bergheim wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They also based all their decision in facts, truth and science What? She shut down nuclear power plants to ramp up coal and Russian dependence. Idolizing people is rarely helpful.

She shut down nuclear power because of extreme pressure from the population. Tens of thousands protested around her office. Nuclear is complicated (and mostly fear driven) in Germany. Oddly enough the first exit was done under Schröder who is a russian asset. Makes you think.

> Oddly enough the first exit was done under Schröder who is a russian asset. Makes you think.

Oddly enough? Schröder was in a coalition with the green party that had emerged from the anti-nuclear movement two decades before.

Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#116

Post by nabla9 »

johntarter wrote: post #70
nabla9 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really a non-problem. Net capital inflows into the U.S. = U.S. trade deficit. The balance of payments is simply: Sales of assets – Purchases of assets = Purchases of goods – Sales of goods If you balance the trade, it means foreigners must stop investing into the US.

It was a problem to Warren Buffet and he used a parable in the past to explain the issue: A perpetuation of this transfer will lead to major trouble. To understand why, take a wildly fanciful trip with me to two isolated, side-by-side islands of equal size, Squanderville and Thriftville. Land is the only capital asset on these islands, and their communities are primitive, needing only food and producing only food. Wo…

The failure of this parable is the assuming that money that comes in to Squanderville is spent on consumption.

In reality people in Thriftville invest money in Squanderville and that money grows new sectors other than manufacturing while the share of manufacturing as GDP declines everywhere.

Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#117

Post by paulpauper »

bayarearefugee wrote: post #25
rufus_foreman wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would assume this means that he is not in great health. Hopefully I'm wrong and he just decided that 85 years or so of hustling for dollars was enough.

There's video of his announcement. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/03/warren-buffett-to-ask-board-... On one hand, he doesn't sound that great (in terms of subtle overall health markers in his voice) when he talks. On the other hand, he's 94 and most people (especially men) don't make it into their 90s, so...

comparing the video to 2024, he sounded similar to last year. not much of a difference

Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#118

Post by AdamJacobMuller »

JimmyBiscuit wrote: post #90
bergheim wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They also based all their decision in facts, truth and science What? She shut down nuclear power plants to ramp up coal and Russian dependence. Idolizing people is rarely helpful.

She shut down nuclear power because of extreme pressure from the population. Tens of thousands protested around her office. Nuclear is complicated (and mostly fear driven) in Germany. Oddly enough the first exit was done under Schröder who is a russian asset. Makes you think.

> Tens of thousands protested around her office

Germany has a population of 84 million people. 10,000 should not be able to dictate a policy decision of this magnitude, regardless of how loud they are.

> Nuclear is complicated (and mostly fear driven)

The politics of nuclear are complicated, the science (more engineering) of nuclear are complicated, the imperative is clear and simple. You are correct that it's mostly fear driven, but stoked by "green" advocacy organizations and/or manipulated by people with a stake in the continued use of fossil fuels (and largely the latter funding the former).

True leadership would stand up to both of these pressures, making people understand that the voice of 10,000 (or even 100,000) people can not dictate policy alone and educating people on the reality of nuclear power, while also fixing some of the real issues with nuclear power (an aging power plant fleet and an inability economically build better replacements).

Merkel totally flopped on energy policy.

Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#119

Post by infecto »

jjallen wrote: post #50
closewith wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

He’s giving away the vast majority of his wealth. He’s the literal embodiment of the opposite of what you’re saying.

Didn’t he retract from the Gates foundation last year. His children will be in charge of it to “donate”. I don’t know the specific mechanics but seems like it’s a good way to simply give it to your kids. They all run types of charities.

https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/with-4-words-warren-buffett-e...

Re: Buffett to step down following six-decade run atop Berkshire

#120

Post by ignoramous »

chgs wrote: post #107
ianbutler wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going to need a huge citation on this one.

it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God

I was like, surely not someone quoting al-A'raf (Qur'an 7:40) on the orange site but it turns out it is the New Testament (Luke 18:25).
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