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The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

mohitdagarwal.substack.com

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Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#111

Post by Jlagreen »

otistravel wrote: post #103

The author completely underestimates NVIDIA's strategic position. They don't need to win the hardware game forever - they're building the entire AI stack: hardware, networking, software, models, developer tools. Nobody else is doing this comprehensively. While hyperscalers are making custom chips for their own use cases, NVIDIA is building a unified platform that everyone else will use. This isn't about who makes the…

Actually, Nvidia has already built the ecosystem. Now, they are refining and adapting it to the fast research in AI.

Others talk about chips when Nvidia thought about interconnects 8 years ago. Today, competitors try to catch up on this while Nvidia talks about One Giant GPU.

The next step will be scale up and then scale out.

Nvidia is always ahead because what the article fails to see is that where CSPs are today is where Nvidia was in the last decade. Nvidia has a working ecosystem for everyone which they can now fine tune with actual customers.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#112

Post by makeitdouble »

voidspark wrote: post #101
makeitdouble wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you arguing that the major cloud providers getting away from consumer GPUs would put AMD or Intel ahead of Nvidia in the GPU market ? How does that happen when the next biggest market (gaming) is still fully Nvidia's turf?

He's talking about datacenter GPUs which are not really GPUs. Gaming is not entirely Nvidia's turf either. AMD has 75% of the console market (Xbox and Playstation) and 30% of the PC market.

> AMD has 75% of the console market (Xbox and Playstation) and 30% of the PC market.

Looking at these numbers[0] for the console market:

> Sony has sold 61.94M units of PS5 and Microsoft has sold 30.14M units of Xbox Series X|S and Nintendo Switch sold 143.49M units.

Nintendo (NVidia chip) sold 1.5x of Sony and Microsoft combined. Given Switch's success the numbers look reliable to me, then Switch 2 is of course also from Nvidia, and I wouldn't be against it selling well.

[0] https://hookedontech.com/switch-vs-ps5-vs-series-x-console-g...

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#113

Post by voidspark »

makeitdouble wrote: post #112
voidspark wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's talking about datacenter GPUs which are not really GPUs. Gaming is not entirely Nvidia's turf either. AMD has 75% of the console market (Xbox and Playstation) and 30% of the PC market.

> AMD has 75% of the console market (Xbox and Playstation) and 30% of the PC market. Looking at these numbers[0] for the console market: > Sony has sold 61.94M units of PS5 and Microsoft has sold 30.14M units of Xbox Series X|S and Nintendo Switch sold 143.49M units. Nintendo (NVidia chip) sold 1.5x of Sony and Microsoft combined. Given Switch's success the numbers look reliable to me, then Switch 2 is of course also…

Old numbers. PS5 has sold 75 million

https://www.ign.com/articles/ps5-has-best-holiday-ever-overa...

In terms of revenue, AMD has the vast majority of the console market.

Yes the Switch sold more units, but that is a smaller SOC with much lower revenue.

Revenue and profit is what matters, not the number of units sold.

Check the price of the PS5 Pro vs Switch.

AMD has dominated the console market since Xbox One / PS4.

Nvidia could be earning $30 - $50 per Switch, while AMD earns $120 - $200 per PS5/PS5 Pro.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#114

Post by twoodfin »

Jlagreen wrote: post #106
voidspark wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's Google Cloud Platform. Of course they will provide Nvidia hardware as demanded by external customers. But their internal workloads and their frontier model (Gemini) runs on TPUs.

Yes, but the cloud customers "who finance TPUs" have NO INTEREST in TPUs and in Nvidia GPUs instead. How does Google pay for TPUs internally? By Google Search and Google Cloud of course. Google Search uses TPUs, Google Cloud however has way more non-TPUs instances. What people forget, nobody wants to switch from CUDA dependency to SW dependency on Google/AWS/Azure. CUDA at least allows me to use it in consumer, in pr…

That’s the fundamental premise of the article: The hyperscalers will consolidate GPU compute exactly as they consolidated all other forms of compute. Including highly sensitive compute like product design and customer databases.

You can argue they won’t, but the “enterprises won’t put sensitive data in Cloud” ship sailed years ago.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#115

Post by ksec »

Ekaros wrote: post #105
solardev wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a gamer, I selfishly wish that Nvidia would go back to being a gaming company instead of a crypto and AI compute company. I miss MSRP graphics cards :(

I also miss sane MSRPs... I thought computers were supposed to get cheaper over time, not more expensive.

That stop happening a while ago. Newer chip are more expensive, as with memory.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#116

Post by ksec »

solardev wrote: post #57
monocasa wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And something like 90% of Nvidia's revenue at this point is from the datacenter market.

As a gamer, I selfishly wish that Nvidia would go back to being a gaming company instead of a crypto and AI compute company. I miss MSRP graphics cards :(

Gentle reminder a lot of mid - lower end graphics card are far from MSRP. And arguably it is crypto and AI compute on server that partly subsided some of the R&D cost on consumer GPU.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#117

Post by sieabahlpark »

01100011 wrote: post #27

Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch. At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.

[dead]

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#118

Post by voidspark »

Jlagreen wrote: post #106
voidspark wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's Google Cloud Platform. Of course they will provide Nvidia hardware as demanded by external customers. But their internal workloads and their frontier model (Gemini) runs on TPUs.

Yes, but the cloud customers "who finance TPUs" have NO INTEREST in TPUs and in Nvidia GPUs instead. How does Google pay for TPUs internally? By Google Search and Google Cloud of course. Google Search uses TPUs, Google Cloud however has way more non-TPUs instances. What people forget, nobody wants to switch from CUDA dependency to SW dependency on Google/AWS/Azure. CUDA at least allows me to use it in consumer, in pr…

> I'm really looking forward to Fortune 500 companies sending all their internal company data to Google

Their internal company data is already on cloud servers. They’re not going to waste money on doing it all in house. The executives will buy the AI service from Google/Azure/AWS, where the company data is already hosted, avoid the costs and risk of doing it in house, and collect their bonus.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#119

Post by thebruce87m »

leptons wrote: post #82
01100011 wrote: post #27

Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch. At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.

Google is investing in QC quite a bit, I wonder if Nvidia has. Even Nvidia is going to look antiquated someday.

Apparently QC now stands for Quantum Computing for anyone else like me who is wondering why Google is investing in Quality Control.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#120

Post by fragmede »

n_ary wrote: post #92
fnordpiglet wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gaming GPUs is a side business for them at this point. It’s all about AI.

Gaming was sort of their major thing until the cryptocurrency wave gave them a major boost and GPUs were rare luxuries suddenly. But as crypto was fading and GPUs were suddenly becoming affordable, GenAI wave hit and again gave a major boost. Am curious how they will react to quantum(sadly no magical enterprise application apparent yet so the tail wind is not strong).

simulations. Drugs work in the brain at a quantum level, and if we could simulate what a drug does before testing on live humans, that would change the world.
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