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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many people do you know who are capable of doing something truly novel? Definitely not me, I'm just an average phd doing average research.

I'm a lowly high school diploma holder. I thought the point of getting a PhD meant you had done something novel (your thesis). Is that wrong?

My phd thesis, just like 99% of other phd theses, does not have any “truly novel” ideas.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What the hell is general intelligence anyway? People seem to think it means human-like intelligence, but I can't imagine we have any good reason to believe that our kinds of intelligence constitute all possible kinds of intelligence--which, from the words, must be what "general" intelligence means. It seems like even if it's possible to achieve GI, artificial or otherwise, you'd never be able to know for sure that th…

> What the hell is general intelligence anyway? OpenAI used to define it as "a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work." Now they used a Level 1-5 scale: https://briansolis.com/2024/08/ainsights-openai-defines-five... So we can say AGI is "AI that can do the work of Organizations": > These “Organizations” can manage and execute all functions of a business, surpassing tradit…

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Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dunno, in work we wanted to implement a task runner that we could use to periodically queue tasks through a web UI - it would then spin up resources on AWS and track the progress and archive the results. We looked at the existing solutions, and concluded that customizing them to meet all our requirements would be a giant effort. Meanwhile I fed the requirement doc into Claude Sonnet, and with about 3 days of promptin…

the future is more custom software designed by ai, not less. alot of frameworks will disappear once you can build sophisticated systems yourself. people are missing this

That's a future with a _lot_ more bugs.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#115
post #24

Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…

> Is AGI even important?

It's an important question for VCs not for Technologists ... :-)

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#117
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just asked it to design or implement? If o3 can design it, that means it’s using open source schedulers as reference. Did you think about opening up a few open source projects to see how they were doing things in those two weeks you were designing?

why would I do that kind of research if it can identify the problem I am trying to solve, and spit out the exact solution. also, it was a rough implementation adapted to my exact tech stack

So you could stick your own copyright notice on the result, for one thing.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#118

I just used o3 to design a distributed scheduler that scales to 1M+ sxchedules a day. It was perfect, and did better than two weeks of thought around the best way to build this.

I'm not sure what is your point in context of AGI topic.

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the future is more custom software designed by ai, not less. alot of frameworks will disappear once you can build sophisticated systems yourself. people are missing this

That's a future with a _lot_ more bugs.

youre assuming humans built it. also, a ton of complexity in software engineering is really due to having to fit a business domain into a string of interfaces in different libraries and technical infrastructure

Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

#120
post #118

I just used o3 to design a distributed scheduler that scales to 1M+ sxchedules a day. It was perfect, and did better than two weeks of thought around the best way to build this.

I'm not sure what is your point in context of AGI topic.

im a tenured engineer, spent a long time at faang. was casually beat this morning by a far superior design from an llm.
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