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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

epoch.ai

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Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#111

Post by pjmlp »

surgical_fire wrote: post #81
pjmlp wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consistent enough for it to be an issue. And not only indies, when taking voice actors into consideration. https://www.ign.com/articles/horizon-actor-ashly-burch-says-... Or some well known studios, https://www.ign.com/articles/activision-finally-admits-it-us...

Ah, it is bottom of the barrell AAA stuff instead. I am somehow unimpressed.

Besides the millions COD gets, more than a few wannabe startup owners on Y Combinator will ever achieve.

There are people being affected by those decisions, effectively losing their jobs, and source of income, as unimpressed as you may be.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#112

Post by pjmlp »

jgilias wrote: post #97
pjmlp wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually only the arquitect will be required, no need for seniors, the offshoring team is the cloud instead of some folks on the other side of the planet. This is the future to prepare, not AI generating a couple of files.

Maybe. But that future is definitely not yet here. Generating a couple of files though is here. And that compounds. So people who’re still typing those files by hand… yeah.

For some things not yet yes, for others it is already here.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#113

Post by pjmlp »

toogan wrote: post #58
pjmlp wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am as optimistic as a factory worker about to replaced by robots. Hence why I can't stand such techno-optmism, apparently most folks live in an ideal world free of economics.

Has the last 70 years of productivity increases led to a reduction in weekly work hours? No. Some jobs will be automated away. Good thing. Braindead stuff that a machine can do should be done by a machine. Doesn't mean we'll all soon be just picking our noses. There will be other work to be done, and if unregulated capitalism has its say then it can easily lead to even more worker exploitation.

No, it lead to less jobs being available.

Good thing when people actually have another job available for them.

Not everyone lives in regions where there is another job across the street.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#114

Post by SequoiaHope »

lukevp wrote: post #94
wolfcola wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

right, and we all got to work 20 hour weeks bc of the industrial revolution.

Huh? 40 hr work weeks are a recent thing, many people in history worked 12 hr days 6 days a week. Technology and social progress definitely leads to fewer work hours.

I’m not so sure. Unions (social progress) brought us the 40 hour work week more so than technology. Factory workers could potentially work more hours than farmers who had very busy periods mixed with slower times. I suppose they exist, maybe you have seen them, but I’ve not seen a real study of the hours worked by subsistence farmers in history. Though technology brings many other benefits, it’s not clear to me how it plays in to work hours.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#115

Post by SequoiaHope »

wolfcola wrote: post #88
SequoiaHope wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well: though we are not particularly likely to I do think that replacing people with machines would be fantastic if we actually just let people relax and work less, and so rather than lament the state of things I tend to focus on the need to promote the value of social systems which support human thriving. On the second point, I guess I would say that most of the marketing talk we see is unlikely to manifest but the…

right, and we all got to work 20 hour weeks bc of the industrial revolution.

I’m not saying technology makes our lives easier. I’m saying technology makes it more possible than ever to build a world where everyone thrives. But it takes human social systems to make that happen. Understanding just how much good we could do with modern technology underscores the value in fighting for the right human social systems.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#116

Post by surgical_fire »

pjmlp wrote: post #111
surgical_fire wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, it is bottom of the barrell AAA stuff instead. I am somehow unimpressed.

Besides the millions COD gets, more than a few wannabe startup owners on Y Combinator will ever achieve. There are people being affected by those decisions, effectively losing their jobs, and source of income, as unimpressed as you may be.

Yeah, COD sells a lot. Not that the sales it gets is testament of quality.

FIFA (or whatever it is called nowadays) also sells plenty every year generating incredible revenue to EA, and every year is a poor quality game.

This is why I am unimpressed that Activision is using AI in its games. I expect them to be of poor quality.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#117

Post by pjmlp »

surgical_fire wrote: post #116
pjmlp wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Besides the millions COD gets, more than a few wannabe startup owners on Y Combinator will ever achieve. There are people being affected by those decisions, effectively losing their jobs, and source of income, as unimpressed as you may be.

Yeah, COD sells a lot. Not that the sales it gets is testament of quality. FIFA (or whatever it is called nowadays) also sells plenty every year generating incredible revenue to EA, and every year is a poor quality game. This is why I am unimpressed that Activision is using AI in its games. I expect them to be of poor quality.

People losing their jobs due to AI being used, couldn't care less about the quality level.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#118

Post by jgilias »

pjmlp wrote: post #112
jgilias wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe. But that future is definitely not yet here. Generating a couple of files though is here. And that compounds. So people who’re still typing those files by hand… yeah.

For some things not yet yes, for others it is already here.

Can you give some examples where “architect, no coders” is here already? Asking, because I’d rather try and adjust to the new world, than pretend it’s not happening!

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#119

Post by charlie90 »

lukevp wrote: post #94
wolfcola wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

right, and we all got to work 20 hour weeks bc of the industrial revolution.

Huh? 40 hr work weeks are a recent thing, many people in history worked 12 hr days 6 days a week. Technology and social progress definitely leads to fewer work hours.

>Technology and social progress definitely leads to fewer work hours.

Do they? Seems more like developed countries just outsourced the sweatshop factory work to other countries. "Out of sight, out of mind" as they say, I guess.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#120

Post by pjmlp »

jgilias wrote: post #118
pjmlp wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For some things not yet yes, for others it is already here.

Can you give some examples where “architect, no coders” is here already? Asking, because I’d rather try and adjust to the new world, than pretend it’s not happening!

Not yet on that front, rather voice actors, artists producing digital assets on games, iconography for applications, decorating motives for clothing and furniture.

On IT industry specially, I think LLMs generating code are going to become as transformative as compilers were to Assembly developers.

Yes, currently they still go through "generate language XYZ" as intermediary step, however they eventually will improve to the point, that intermediary step will no longer be needed.

And like the Assembly developers that deemed to manually assess the machine code generated by compilers and scoffed at the generated output, eventually had to cope with optimising compilers turning their knowledge into a niche field, same will happen with common programming languages.

Yeah sure, there will be some Compiler Explorer kind of way to see how the AI maps its decisions to e.g. RISC-V Assembly, but only those in the know will bother looking into it, either by curiosity or need.

Some current examples ongoing trends, more specifically IT, in enterprise consulting, we have evolved to less coding, more plumbing, where existing SaaS products get integrated with each other, mostly via configuration, or integration scripts.

Well turns out, some of those common patterns can be used to teach AIs, and let them automate integrations, instead of manually write them by hand.

https://blog.hoyack.com/top-7-tools-for-effective-agent-orch...

Do they work as well as the sales pitch?

Not yet, those optimising compilers also took a couple of decades to get right, still miss some stuff like auto-vectorization, however the job of Assembly programmer is for all practical purposes gone.

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