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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

nabraj.com

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#111
post #3

I wouldn't be that pessimistic. Just like Stephen Curry discovered the value of the three-point shot, someone will come along and spot an opportunity by going against the grain of today's paradigm. Perhaps an AlphaGo for basketball will help to find it.

I don't think that will happen broadly, there will be physical freaks like Wembanyama or players with extreme talent like Jokic that will create teams with unique edges, but the mid range jumper is dead and it's a game of 3 pointers and dunks forever now.

I doubt that. Players like DeRozan prove that mid and even long 2s have utility. As defenses optimize to pack the paint while chasing shooters off the line, more opportunities will open up. If it were obvious how, we'd already be doing them!

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#112
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claim the math is very basic is reminding me of the different conclusions people have drawn from this image: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias#/media/Fil...

So in the 2008-2009 season, the one before Curry’s debut, the average number of 3 pointer attempts per game from a team was 18. Last season it was 35, so pretty much 2x. If it was so intricate why nobody tried it before? And why after someone tried it it seemingly stuck? Is it really that far fetched that it was actually pretty simple and nobody noticed for many years? Even if you consider the adjustement to the defe…

But it isn't just simple math.

Yes, 33% for 3pts equals a 50% 2pt shot, so beat that, and you've got yourself a pretty good scorer. But hitting 33% is not trivial unless you make a lot of other adjustments: multiple blocks for the shooters and not just a simple pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop, staggered blocks for a shooter switching from one sideline to the next. This has actually led to less specialization, as every player on the court needs to shoot 3s and defend faster or bigger players as switches became unavoidable.

And with all that, it only led to a "dynasty" when one player who could create his own shot and shoot from nearly anywhere at 35+% (Curry), paired with another ~40% career 3pt shooter and defensive specialist (Thompson) and completed with a power forward who could defend anyone and coordinate the attack too (Green). Even so, they did need another future hall-of-famer in Durant to win two of their last 3 rings.

That same team still has 2 of those core people in them, but they are unable to replicate anywhere near the success.

So if anyone can do this, why doesn't everyone do it?

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#113
post #23

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…

You are right, the situation is not as dire as in baseball or arguably even soccer, there's more chaos and room for innovation. But still data-lization is taking the fun out of basketball, that's for sure.

wow really? Did soccer also go through a statistical revolution? I don't watch soccer at all and am pretty surprised to hear this. Did all the teams converge on a winning solution?

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#114
The author does not know basketball, either watching or playing, which is evident from their claims and from their language.

> Players are no longer do-it-alls; they are now given specialized roles.

> they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.

Anyone who even watches games would instinctively use different language. Nobody in basketball speaks this way.

As far as the veracity, I'd really need to see some data.

First, nothing in cutting edge, 3-and-D basketball says to stop playing defense. Defense is the D in 3-and-D.

As just one counter-example to the author's claims, big players - centers and power forwards - have become more generalized. Instead of just playing near the basket on offense and defense, many now handle the ball, pass, and also shoot from outside - the old-style guys who lack those skills have taken big pay cuts. The primary ball-handler for the author's local Golden State Warriors is Draymond Green, their center. The best player in the world is a center renowned especially for their passing, Nikola Jokic.

Wing players (small forwards and shooting guards) do it all. The local Golden State Warriors also have Steph Curry, the best shooter ever and an excellent ball-handler and passer. And they recently acquired Jimmy Butler, an all-star all-around player; here is the coach:

"Jimmy, he's a real deal," Kerr said. "I mean, just a complete basketball player, methodical, under control all the time, plays at his own pace, never turns it over, sees the game and then can get to the line frequently. Great closer, not in the traditional sense where he's going to be Kevin Durant and make four straight midrange jumpers, but it's more of a complete game. Get to the line, make the right pass, get somebody else an open look, get a defensive stop, get a rebound. He's a fantastic player."

https://abc7news.com/post/warriors-draymond-green-calls-new-...

What's changed in the NBA is that 3-point shooting has become more valued, partly supported by analytics, partly because Steph Curry redefined what is possible for 3-point shooting for both playing and for being a star: Before Curry, every kid wanted to be Michael Jordan or others who made miraculous drives to the basket through crowds; after Curry, kids were heaving up shots from ridiculous distances, just like their hero.

You won't be surprised to learn that many people say, 'it's not like the old days', and are debating changing the rules to make everyone play like they did 20 years ago.

Supporting my theory of the author, here is their bio (https://nabraj.com/)

> Hi, I'm NT (Nabaraj T), a full-stack engineer in Northern California. ... ten years of professional experience

> Besides software development, my interests are in embedded circuits and astronomy. I have started my startup to research space technologies. When not tangled with 1s and 0s, I usually watch football, cheering on Chelsea.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#115

This article was written by someone who has very little knowledge or appreciation of the history of the game. The NBA has always been a league of specialists revolving around a few superstars with a couple of “glue guys” thrown into the mix.

Honestly, this post comes off that way. Or you have a different timeline of what you consider always. Jordan basically invented the modern superstar. Sure, you had the Wilts and Dr J's back in the day, but they dominated based on their talent, not because the game was meticulously planned around maximizing their specific capabilities.

Not to discount Jordan in any way - but Nike and all the marketing behind him with the shoes was a big part of becoming the first modern superstar. He won championships many years later.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#116

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

I love the modern game. I just think the pendulum has swung a tiny bit too far toward 3s in the past 3-4 years, that's all. Just a nudge in the other direction. My ideal would be to try changing 2s and 3s to 3s and 4s. But that will never happen.

agree it'll never happen, but very cool idea.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#117
post #78
post #23

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

It's weird because almost all of the levels below the NBA are better games than the NBA. Nobody really goes out of their way to follow AAA baseball teams, but college basketball and even some high schools are great games.

The pet theory is that the NBA is a RNG for gambling now the game isn't really the game. TV is near death, so gambling is the only source of revenue that can possibly replace the big TV deal.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#118
post #51

My proposal to fix this is to automatically award a point for all non-reboundable free throws.

You mean, a free throw is a chance shot that when missed awards the defense? Seems like that would have a huge impact on end of game strategy. It would change the “in the paint” strategy—maybe defense would foul earlier to avoid the 2+1? Hoping instead to split the 2, 1-1 with a miss. Of course, the centers and forwards, who typically aren’t great free throw shooters, are gonna get the ball less. Where does the play…

To clarify, award the offense a point when fouled shooting a 2-point shot and two points if shooting a 3.

There’s still a free-throw left to earn the old fashioned way.

Mostly the thinking is this encourages post-play since bigs are usually worse free-throw shooters. Also, it should shorten game length which is another recent audience concern.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#119
post #99

Stolen bases in baseball is similar to this. In 2023, MLB made two rule changes with stealing being at all time lows (and them thinking fans love stolen bases): 1) Limiting the number of pickoff attempts by pitchers, and 2) Slight enlarging of the bases. Take a look at the jump[0]. It's been interesting to follow some changes teams have made the past two seasons where teams are figuring out how to better time steals…

I don't really understand the comparison. The game changes with the rules. The meta shifts with the analytics. But stealing bases has long been a science. It was something I admired about college level development of players in the 2000's - stealing bases went from fundamental to advanced and well beyond "just let the fastest guys do their thing." UVA's coach had a saying like "every player on this team will be capab…

MLB teams abandoned fundamentals because of the moneyball analyst guidance. Just like in business, following the MBA short-term analysis stuff often has negative impacts. You need to tweak the rules to break the statistical advantage.

When the NHL over-expanded in the 90s a similar thing happened -- there wasn't enough talent so they'd just skate in these obnoxious circles, which is super boring to watch.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's such an arrogant comment. "Really basic math"? Do you think NBA coaches reached this conclusion like this: 1. A player can throw X 2-points in a game. 2. Or he can throw Y 3-points in a game. 3. 3Y > 2X, so we should just throw 3-points all the time. It's absolutely not what happened. And the reason teams didn't discovery the current strategy decades earlier was absolutely not that they couldn't do basic math.

It really is basic math though. A 3 point shot with 36% chance to go in (league average) = 1.08 points per attempt. A mid-range 2 point shot with 45% chance to go in = .9 points per attempt. The math is very basic.

This math makes sense, but it might not not always be so simple.

For example, maybe these probabilities might not always be the same as this in all circumstances. Also, how much risk you might take also might depend on the current score and remaining time (e.g. maybe you are likely to win even with only one more point than your current score, or maybe it depends how much time it takes to make a specific shot (I don't actually know enough about basketball to know if this is relevant)), and on how your opponent can defend against it at a specific situation (and if their defense would allow them to score instead; I don't actually know how much that is relevant either), maybe. There are probably other considerations as well.

(I do not actually know all of the rules or strategy of basketball, so if I am wrong, you can mention what mistake I made.)

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