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Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

trading.snagra.com

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Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#111

Post by chrishare »

sunnynagra wrote: post #57
rixed wrote: post #18

> The goal is to study how different LLMs interpret financial data and make decisions with real consequences. I don't really buy this. If the goal was to study how different LLMs interpret financial data there would be no use for actual trades, since their interpretation cannot be influenced by the fact that the trading orders are passed for real. I believe the goal is to see if AI can do better than rats [0]. There…

You make fair points. Having them do actual trades is mostly to make it more personally fun and interesting to myself.

Looks great, well done

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#112

Post by WalterBright »

maximus-decimus wrote: post #83
chronic026935 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> or just a stocktrader haha Many quant trading firms make 50%-100% annual returns, each year, over the past 15-20 years. The secret is leverage. And they do not accept outside investor money. Many hedge funds outperform the market. However, the returns after fees, to the passive outside investor underperform S&P500. But yes, publicly traded active ETFs generally underperform. But counter example is VGT or QQQ, both…

The problem with looking at which funds over-perform is they just close the funds that under-perform so all the existing ones over-perform... by the sheer power of survivorship bias.

Past performance is no predictor of future returns.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#113

Post by WalterBright »

rufus_foreman wrote: post #105
chronic026935 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> or just a stocktrader haha Many quant trading firms make 50%-100% annual returns, each year, over the past 15-20 years. The secret is leverage. And they do not accept outside investor money. Many hedge funds outperform the market. However, the returns after fees, to the passive outside investor underperform S&P500. But yes, publicly traded active ETFs generally underperform. But counter example is VGT or QQQ, both…

>> Many quant trading firms make 50%-100% annual returns, each year, over the past 15-20 years 100% annual returns on 1 million dollars for 20 years is 1 trillion dollars. No one is making that type of return.

Why it's worth paying attention in math class.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#114

Post by nilamo »

WalterBright wrote: post #109
Retr0id wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Real trades have transaction fees, latency, slippage, etc. - you can simulate all this, but it's hard to know if it's being simulated correctly or not. > their interpretation cannot be influenced by the fact that the trading orders are passed for real It's not going to make much difference with $5 trades, but the impact on the market is non-zero.

> fees, latency, slippage Whenever I trade, I somehow always get an adverse price. I figure it's the "no fee" brokerage chiseling a bit off for themselves. I compensate by being a buy and hold hold hold investor, so paying very little in aggregate for that. What I don't understand is how day traders avoid being eaten alive by this.

"Free" transactions are free because they're not immediate. The broker buys the share themselves and sells it to you at markup... ie: there is still a transaction fee, you just have no idea what it is.

Day traders use platforms that are optimized for speed and minimal fees, and that don't charge fees based on lot size.

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#117

Post by sunnynagra »

johng wrote: post #68

My first email address it wouldn't accept.. wouldn't let me use it. Maybe the domain hit some censor (fscking.com) Did a different email, it accepted it, I got the email, but got this error message when trying to confirm it: {"error":"Invalid verification token"} and a pretty-print checkbox that did nothing.

Hey, can you try again? I ran into an API limit that should be resolved now

Re: Show HN: Watch 3 AIs compete in real-time stock trading

#120

Post by attentionmech »

Related to this but little theoretical question - If you add an intelligent predictor of market which wins over other consistently by X% - then the market will start using that information and wouldn't that make our intelligent predictor lose it's edge?

More simply what i mean to ask is -> the moment market knows about your advantage, shouldn't you lose it because everyone else will use that information to balance the market?

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