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Trump wins presidency for second time

thehill.com

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Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#111

Post by mrtksn »

Quothling wrote: post #15

It'll be interesting to see what this will mean for European dependence on US tech companies. I'm not personally against companies like Microsoft as such, in fact I think they are one of the better IT business partners for non-tech Enterprise. Often what they sell is vastly underestimated by their critics within the EU, not that I disagree with the problematic nature of depending on foreign tech companies either. Wit…

Europe is still very much pro-American: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/06/27/overall-opinio...

However, the numbers are much worse than before and on the previous Trump presidency they crashed(recovered with Biden but crashed again): https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/06/11/appendix-a-fav...

The anti-establishment movements in EU are also predominantly anti-US, leftists are often anti-US too.

I got the impression of many Americans online believing that Europeans are tech and progress loving, bureaucracy hating people under tyranny of EU which is a building in Brussels that churns rules and regulations.

However that's not true, most Europeans love the big government hate new tech and prefer the slow and worry free life over the daily hustling.

If Trump follows up with its promises, I only imagine EU parting with US on more stuff. I also see many Americans apparently believing that EU is mostly museums and there's no technology. Also not true, EU is made of countries that are traditionally tool-makers and Europeans are anti-tech and anti-change only when it comes to adoption of tech into their daily lives, not when creating tools and machines. ASML is not a coincidence, all kind of precision tooling and machinery is the bread and butter of European industry.

So, if EU parts with US, I imagine that American stuff will be quickly replaced with European made stuff. The dominance of American tech in the daily lives is mostly due to network effect, a forced change will result in what resulted in Russia and China: local alternatives.

Europe is worse off than the US only in Energy and demographics. Two massive issues but there are no quick-fixes for those, so they are European realities with or without the US.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#112

Post by fcanesin »

the5avage wrote: post #96

Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.

AtlasIntel did. I met Thiago (CTO) in Rio and Boston while he was doing his math PhD at Harvard, he is nice person and a fine mathematician: their methodology uses online polling on social media with micro-targeting. I only assume competitors are not leveraging social media as well as they are. Roman, the CEO, said they will donate all their raw data from the final polls to Roper Center at Cornell for academic research[1].

[1] https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1854051400273244534

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#116

Post by nikodotio »

leke wrote: post #109

This is weird because the information I was getting was that Harris was leading the opinion polls and the Trump supporters were dropping him at the last minute. Now this feels like a rigged election.

Or the information you were getting was not comprehensive.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#117

Post by everdrive »

the5avage wrote: post #96

Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.

What I heard recently is that the 2020 polls were actually less accurate than the 2016 polls. (the 2020 polls simply accurately predicted the winner, so there wasn't so much controversy.) From that standpoint, it's not clear that polling has had very good accuracy from 2016. What I'm not sure about is why pollsters are not able to adjust their models towards more accuracy, but it does seem to be a longitudinal problem.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#118

Post by Tuna-Fish »

the5avage wrote: post #96

Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.

The polls were actually surprisingly close. The final margin between the candidates in key states will be smaller than a reasonable margin of error for any poll.

The margin in Pennsylvania will continue to shrink, as the only place with lots of votes left to count is Philadelphia. Michigan might still flip blue, because the only place with votes to count is Detroit. Arizona is still a total coin toss, with 51k vote difference and >1200k votes left to count. Wisconsin is going to be close too, although it will likely stay red.

None of that matters when there are less ballots left to count than the margin in PA, but still, the message from the polls before election was "this will be a nailbiter", and it kind of was.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#120

Post by avazhi »

the5avage wrote: post #96

Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.

Same exact thing that happened in 2016: if you repeatedly demonise a section of the population, don’t expect that section of the population to be honest with you about its opinions when those opinions are what led you to demonise it in the first place.
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