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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

tomverbeure.github.io

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#111

Seen this discussion before. Musk claims that Tesla will announce fully autonomous driverless taxi mode on August 8th. That's "announce", not "ship". If this were anywhere near close to happening, there would be test vehicles all over the place, like Waymo and Cruise. There would be press reports. In reality, Tesla has an autonomous vehicle test license in California from the DMV and reports zero miles driven.

They are already on the road for years ;)

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#113
post #95
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it sort of works in limited cases. FSD is like ChatGPT, it works in many cases, it does some mistakes, but it is certainly not “useless”. It won’t replace full time humans yet (the same way that ChatGPT does not replace a developer) but can still work in some scenarios. To the investor, ChatGPT is sold as “AGI is just round the corner”.

If ChatGPT emits a fragment of code that doesn’t compile, a developer can simply undo and try again. No such luxury is granted to the driver using FSD who has just collided with another vehicle.

Or produces code that compiles but is subtly wrong it probably won't kill someone, well until we start developing safety critical systems with it. One day we might have only developers that can't actually write code fluently and we'll expect them massage what ever LLMs produce into something workable. Oh well.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#114
post #54

And please keep in mind that this is pretty much in the optimal settings for FSD: great weather, huge streets, everything is as "car friendly" as it gets. I'd like to see FSD navigating an old Italian city, there's just no way. Even in car-friendly Germany you very often have streets with side-parking, which are too narrow to fit two cars, you need to communicate with oncoming cars, for instance by waving or flashing…

> old Italian city

Try traffic in India [1][2] If it were a game, then India will be the last boss fight in ultra-hard mode.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs

[2] https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#115
post #83

The article answers the wrong question of 'is FSD perfect?'. A better question is whether it's 'cost-benefit positive'. That's all that matters when users decide whether or not to use something. If FSD reduces fatigue and allows you to arrive to work fresher, it might be worth tolerating the odd wrong turn extending the drive time by 2 minutes.

The odd wrong turn I am worried about is into a tree not to the wrong street.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#116
post #113
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If ChatGPT emits a fragment of code that doesn’t compile, a developer can simply undo and try again. No such luxury is granted to the driver using FSD who has just collided with another vehicle.

Or produces code that compiles but is subtly wrong it probably won't kill someone, well until we start developing safety critical systems with it. One day we might have only developers that can't actually write code fluently and we'll expect them massage what ever LLMs produce into something workable. Oh well.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#117
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Because of shadows or does it operate on a 2D 'view' of the traffic situation?

IIRC it's an vision-only ML-based system. So the answer to "why" is probably "we don't know lol"

Right. Scary stuff. I'm not excited to drive a cheap second-hand ICE car, but the fanciness stops at AC and 3.5 mm AUX-jack on the stereo, and that's pretty nice. If I wanted to I could do service and repairs myself.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's only a matter of time" means nothing. It was only a matter of time in Cesar's age before we got supercomputers and planes. Tesla is near the bottom of the pack on self-driving tech, with no real hopes of going beyond the level 2 self-driving of FSD, which is objectively worse than just driving yourself. There are already multiple companies with either actual self-driving fleets (e.g. Waymo) or limited use cases…

you're so wrong. do more research. Driving on a geo-fenced area is much much simple than what Tesla is trying. Eventually they can do that as well without problems if they can't generalise.

You do realise that waymo doesn't have drivers in their cars anymore? How about you do research on Tesla's competitors? Having a driver intervene is several orders of magnitude less advanced. Easily more than a decade away from the goal of self driving.

You can build a geofenced area that spans every single road in the USA so the fact that something is geofenced tells you absolutely nothing.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#119

Seen this discussion before. Musk claims that Tesla will announce fully autonomous driverless taxi mode on August 8th. That's "announce", not "ship". If this were anywhere near close to happening, there would be test vehicles all over the place, like Waymo and Cruise. There would be press reports. In reality, Tesla has an autonomous vehicle test license in California from the DMV and reports zero miles driven.

isn't it in itself an announcement ?

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#120

They should teach Tesla’s “autopilot” (and its FSD upgrade) in business schools. Turns out you can sustainably push up company valuation on vapourware. You have to wonder if Tesla’s autonomous driving technology was actually ever meant to turn into a product. Or whether it is mostly a tool to justify the lofty Tesla stock price. I very much doubt that it is technologically ahead of its competitors.

Ford’s Blue Cruise is hands-off in mapped highways. Waymo is driverless. Musk is really getting away with all the hype for what Tesla cruise control delivers.
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