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Thanks Dan.
Only sharing this because I learned it myself two months ago and think it's not common knowledge: dang actually is for dan g. and not just the word dang. he never speaks on it but someone mentioned it to me and I thought that was interesting. Anyway yes thank you dan!
I'm not necessarily saying they're wrong, but there's really no way to put out a release like this without a "history is written by the victors" vibe coming across.
Yeah. The review and findings should have at least attempted to answer the question: "What did Ilya see?"
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He pretty clearly won. There's not much to it. A huge chunk of the company went into open revolt and he got a competing offer that threatened to recruit all of them. There's nothing really underhanded or sneaky about it: the board drastically overplayed their hand, and all Altman and Brockman had to do was say "I call". To use the parlance of this community of people: people's priors here all seem to be that somethin…
Or the more cynical take that this is the natural course all parties take when they discover themselves atop a large pile of money. The board was just outmaneuvered.
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He pretty clearly won. There's not much to it. A huge chunk of the company went into open revolt and he got a competing offer that threatened to recruit all of them. There's nothing really underhanded or sneaky about it: the board drastically overplayed their hand, and all Altman and Brockman had to do was say "I call". To use the parlance of this community of people: people's priors here all seem to be that somethin…
My takeaway is that neither side comes out of this looking very good.
> reviewed more than 30,000 documents As somebody completely ignorant of the inner workings of the legal trade, can somebody explain what this means? Does this mean a group of informed humans reviewed 30k docs? Does this mean 30k docs were grep’d for keywords? Somewhere in between?
They likely had a few document review attorneys do a first pass review for relevance through all 30,000 documents (a "document" can be a short email). A reviewer can do somewhere from 50-70 documents/hour. Then attorneys do a second pass review on the much smaller set of relevant documents. Reviewing 30,000 documents is a relatively small project.
There is a subplot in Better Call Saul where Kim is punished by being assigned to days of doc review. Briefly shown in this clip: https://youtu.be/9uQQvnrQZz0?si=WwDN4-Yh7UJ2a0MH
> reviewer can do somewhere from 50-70 documents/hour
Back of the envelope calculations using your numbers and assuming an hourly rate of between $250-$400 shows this doc review costing between $100k-$200k. Seems like a sane estimate to me.
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He pretty clearly won. There's not much to it. A huge chunk of the company went into open revolt and he got a competing offer that threatened to recruit all of them. There's nothing really underhanded or sneaky about it: the board drastically overplayed their hand, and all Altman and Brockman had to do was say "I call". To use the parlance of this community of people: people's priors here all seem to be that somethin…
>> "A huge chunk of the company went into open revolt and he got a competing offer that threatened to recruit all of them" - They had a huge funding (>80B?) round planned in which employees could cash-in. Without Sam that round was guaranteed to not happen. So they all had huge financial incentive to support them. Which I guess, characterizes him as a great manager who thinks many steps ahead.
All incentives all different stakeholders (employees, leadership, board, investors) have are all aligned with the full for-profit side of the organization. In fact, that’s the only side.
“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome”. Charlie Munger
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The answer is that Altman tried to get the Board removed, the Board found out and snap fired him, which scared the shit out of Microsoft. The prior and new Boards both cannot make the allegation that Altman tried to commit a corporate coup, albeit for different reasons[0], so we're never going to get official confirmation of anything. My prediction is that Altman will, unmoored from any sort of accountability, wind u…
Nah, I think Microsoft will end up buying some form of assets off of OpenAI (it's a non-profit with odd corporate governance that Altman doesn't own stock in, so I don't think they'll buy the whole company) for an extremely exorbitant price. Altman will put in some ambitious but clueless Microsoft manager to run it and move on to his next thing. Then it'll turn out that Gen AI is dramatically overhyped and the real-w…
> real-world utility is far less than expected
The real-world utility is already enormous in the form it is now. You really think there's no real-world utility to GPT-4, Claude, and all the models that are coming out?
Context: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39635058 You could predict this yesterday from the leaks that were coming out like https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/technology/openai-executi...
Highly recommend people read that NYT article. That the CEO had reported issues with Altman to the board hadn't been previously reported. Paywall free: https://web.archive.org/web/20240308043717/https://www.nytim...
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Or the more cynical take that this is the natural course all parties take when they discover themselves atop a large pile of money. The board was just outmaneuvered.
What "maneuver"? They don't appear to have had to do anything to win.