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Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

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Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#111

Post by vaidhy »

Natsu wrote: post #75
vaidhy wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just wanted to make sure I understand this right - Since Jeff B made that one statement, anecdotes are a better measure? And the second part of it talks about measurement, not data. People are irrational and we give in to irrational fears. If I heard about one incidence of someone who is homeless attacking a bystander, I would be afraid of all homeless people. I do not have enough data to analyze (nor do I care to an…

In most places, your car will almost never get broken into. In a few cities, this will happen basically all the time. The averages are removing information about how crime is distributed and focusing on violent crime when people are more worried currently about property crime. This uneven distribution and the rise in property crime does a lot explain the difference between these national averages and people's persona…

Yes, but you are still looking at data. I never said there are no local variances. However, extreme dependence on your lived experience should not result in policy decisions.

I am taking a more extreme example just to illustrate - If I could not find a job, does not mean there are no jobs for anyone. If I face hardship, does not mean everyone faces hardship.

I am not saying ignore local variances.. however, it is still not anecdote driven. The original article was about crimes dropping in US measured across different cites and not that there is no crime.

My point is that people hearing about crime will still have an emotional reaction and might not reflect the reality. Anecdotes get tainted and exaggerated by emotions. JeffB's statement mean little in this case.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#112

Post by Natsu »

vaidhy wrote: post #111
Natsu wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In most places, your car will almost never get broken into. In a few cities, this will happen basically all the time. The averages are removing information about how crime is distributed and focusing on violent crime when people are more worried currently about property crime. This uneven distribution and the rise in property crime does a lot explain the difference between these national averages and people's persona…

Yes, but you are still looking at data. I never said there are no local variances. However, extreme dependence on your lived experience should not result in policy decisions. I am taking a more extreme example just to illustrate - If I could not find a job, does not mean there are no jobs for anyone. If I face hardship, does not mean everyone faces hardship. I am not saying ignore local variances.. however, it is sti…

> The original article was about crimes dropping in US measured across different cites and not that there is no crime.

No, it was about violent crimes dropping and comparing that to a survey about people worried about all crime. Given that property crimes are infamously up in some places with mass looting events, those people are not being irrational or ignoring data to believe what they do.

The real data point we should worry about from a policy perspective is that there are a relatively small number of people who do a lot more crime than everyone else.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#113

Post by [deleted] »

legitster wrote: post #32

> "The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too. > A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there w…

[deleted]

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#114

Post by _Parfait_ »

none_to_remain wrote: post #85
_Parfait_ wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't run this country based on feeling and anecdotes. Sorry. It's not an option.

People can vote based on whatever they'd like.

I suppose they can. There's plenty of countries who vote on superstition and anecdotes. A lot of them are still industrializing.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#115

Post by _Parfait_ »

nradov wrote: post #90
_Parfait_ wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Invoking Bezos doesn't make this sound less unhinged. Sorry.

No, Jeff Bezos has it right. There is some nuance to his data analysis approach and I recommend listening to his interview on the Lex Fridman podcast to understand what he was getting at. https://open.spotify.com/episode/5D4rToJ6IW2JsilsvuKeA1?si=X...

no

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#116

Post by vaidhy »

Natsu wrote: post #112
vaidhy wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but you are still looking at data. I never said there are no local variances. However, extreme dependence on your lived experience should not result in policy decisions. I am taking a more extreme example just to illustrate - If I could not find a job, does not mean there are no jobs for anyone. If I face hardship, does not mean everyone faces hardship. I am not saying ignore local variances.. however, it is sti…

> The original article was about crimes dropping in US measured across different cites and not that there is no crime. No, it was about violent crimes dropping and comparing that to a survey about people worried about all crime. Given that property crimes are infamously up in some places with mass looting events, those people are not being irrational or ignoring data to believe what they do. The real data point we sh…

Unless the survey was biased towards people living in areas of high crime, I am not sure how to draw the conclusion you drew.

The last sentence seems to be a dog whistle for something else.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#117

Post by Natsu »

vaidhy wrote: post #116
Natsu wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The original article was about crimes dropping in US measured across different cites and not that there is no crime. No, it was about violent crimes dropping and comparing that to a survey about people worried about all crime. Given that property crimes are infamously up in some places with mass looting events, those people are not being irrational or ignoring data to believe what they do. The real data point we sh…

Unless the survey was biased towards people living in areas of high crime, I am not sure how to draw the conclusion you drew. The last sentence seems to be a dog whistle for something else.

> Unless the survey was biased towards people living in areas of high crime, I am not sure how to draw the conclusion you drew.

You don't need any such bias to understand there's a difference between all crime & violent crime and that comparing the two measures of entirely different things is not valid.

> The last sentence seems to be a dog whistle for something else.

I was referring to this story about how about one third of all shoplifting in NYC was done by 327 people: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/15/nyregion/shoplifting-arre...

Please retract your incorrect accusations.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#118

Post by causi »

UtopiaPunk wrote: post #48
legitster wrote: post #32

> "The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too. > A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there w…

I don't worry about being robbed or my car broken into, but I do worry about being hit and killed by a reckless driver. I don't think that's what people have in mind when they think of "murder" or "assault," but that's genuinely my biggest fear to my well-being.

One of the most powerful reminders of the powers-that-be's priorities is the observation that, given a set number of enforcement cameras, they will be used as speed cameras to generate revenue rather than traffic light cameras to get dangerous drivers off the road.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#119

Post by verdverm »

legitster wrote: post #73
verdverm wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we weight crime counts by severity, than the total area under the curve is smaller, which seems like a good thing

Even if that was a falsifiable premise, that's not a very strong argument. If "average" income goes up just because there are a few more billionaires that move to my city, it doesn't actually mean I am richer. If most people are living measurably worse lives because of crime, but the already low rate of murders drops a few points, I don't think we should rest on our laurels.

Murders have dropped by significant percentages, not just a few

To reverse this, it's like the billionaires being taxed heavily, and provides additional resources to administered for the rest

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#120

Post by downrightmike »

FooBarBizBazz wrote: post #83
downrightmike wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if that's because of all the anti abortion polices in red states. Given DC is in Virginia. Going to be pretty interesting in 30 years when all the red states suddenly have a massive up spike in crimes and super predators

I believe this is the Freakonomics theory.

Yup :D We'll have some new data at the least.
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