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Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

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Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#111
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most Middle Eastern countries have made approximately zero progress on worker training and productivity in the past 20 years. Some have even gone backwards. There's no reason to expect they will do better in the next 20. It's a sad waste of human potential due to toxic politics and unfavorable geography.

If progress was equal everywhere we wouldn't have all these laggards willing to work for peanuts to improve their life (because the peanuts they were working for locally are even smaller than foreign peanuts). ~5% of the population currently not getting the job done doesn't invalidate any part of my argument. It just means that 5% might be the last guys left in the dark ages if progress continues and the policy of of…

Political instability means that manufacturing will never be significantly offshored to the Middle East. It doesn't matter how cheap the labor is if you're worried your factory is going to get blown up. For all the faults of the Chinese government, they have at least created a safe environment for manufacturers to operate.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel something is getting horribly out of balance In my country, they dropped interest rates to near 0 in the wake of 9/11 in order to prevent the economy from crashing, and held them there until the Covid pandemic. It seems like that free money was used to buy _anything_ that could be invested in, driving up prices for assets like stocks, houses, and cryptocurrencies. I remember reading articles around 2018 that…

> I looked at a dark, unremarkable 4 bedroom condominium priced at $400k, which was at least 6x my annual income. I suspect, people, even with comparatively high income, stopped being able to buy hard securities like houses. Why save up then? So, folk had a lot more "disposable income" to consume soothing, but overall transient consumable products and services like clothing, tech gadgets, food, subscriptions... – lif…

The data doesn't support your argument. US homeownership rate is 66%. People are still buying. It has only become unaffordable in a handful of cities.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#114
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I looked at a dark, unremarkable 4 bedroom condominium priced at $400k, which was at least 6x my annual income. I suspect, people, even with comparatively high income, stopped being able to buy hard securities like houses. Why save up then? So, folk had a lot more "disposable income" to consume soothing, but overall transient consumable products and services like clothing, tech gadgets, food, subscriptions... – lif…

The data doesn't support your argument. US homeownership rate is 66%. People are still buying. It has only become unaffordable in a handful of cities.

Who is buying? Affordability is at at the lowest point since the 90s. Look at the age developments...

https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/homeownership-rate-...

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2023/06/homes/housing-ma...

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#115
Im Polish. 20 years ago my parents were taking 1-2 months of PTO every year to work on German farms. 2 months * 2 people and you could’ve renovated a whole mid-sized flat or get a decent 3 years old car. Now I’m making 2-3x more after taxes than my German friends. Yes, I’m self employed and yes I’ll need to take care of my own retirement but I’ll be better off after 1-2 years of putting $100k in ETFs than they could ever be with their state pensions.

The taxes will kill the old Europe.

On the other hand juniors at FAANG in California make more than I do ($160k before taxes, $135k after, how much do you need to earn in Berlin to be left with 135k?).

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#116
post #115

Im Polish. 20 years ago my parents were taking 1-2 months of PTO every year to work on German farms. 2 months * 2 people and you could’ve renovated a whole mid-sized flat or get a decent 3 years old car. Now I’m making 2-3x more after taxes than my German friends. Yes, I’m self employed and yes I’ll need to take care of my own retirement but I’ll be better off after 1-2 years of putting $100k in ETFs than they could…

You think someone earning $160k before taxes in California takes home $135k?

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#117
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Yes. No. Yes.

To add to this, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_veh... : # Country 2022 ---------------------------- 1 China 27,020,615 2 United States 10,060,339 3 Japan 7,835,519 4 India 5,456,857 5 South Korea 3,757,049 6 Germany 3,677,820 ... 18 United Kingdom 876,614

I'm talking about going backwards. Japan, how is that sustainable with a collapsing population? Robots, perhaps, but not yet.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#118
post #115

Im Polish. 20 years ago my parents were taking 1-2 months of PTO every year to work on German farms. 2 months * 2 people and you could’ve renovated a whole mid-sized flat or get a decent 3 years old car. Now I’m making 2-3x more after taxes than my German friends. Yes, I’m self employed and yes I’ll need to take care of my own retirement but I’ll be better off after 1-2 years of putting $100k in ETFs than they could…

You think someone earning $160k before taxes in California takes home $135k?

Eh...it's sort of right. If they max out their 401k contributions and count it as take-home (not entirely unreasonable, people save their take-home pay after all) it's about $132k. More if the employer matches 401k contributions.

Re: Germany's days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end

#119

It's interesting to note that a GWM Tank 300 that cost 1/5 or 1/10 of Mercedes G-Wagon price (depending on the countries) is as good if not better in term of interior luxury, moving from A to B and off-road capability [1]. It now has reached its 300K milestone production recently, and fast becoming Corolla of 4WD world. [1]Cybertank 300 Is A Batshit Crazy $47K Chinese SUV With 227 HP: https://carnewschina.com/2021/08…

Zero safety features?

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